Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Russia-Finland conflict worsens Baltic isolation

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(Source: Atle Staalesen from Barent Observer)

Russia’s geopolitical influence in the Baltic Sea region is increasingly shrinking. The most recent event in the deterioration of relations between the region and Moscow was the sudden arrival in November of hundreds of migrants from the Middle East and Africa at a busy border crossing between Russia and southeastern Finland (Kommersant) , November 30). The Finnish government responded to the crisis by canceling its cross-border cooperation agreement with Russia and closing all borders (RBC, November 30). Rather than helping desperate migrants, Moscow used this opportunity to recruit them into “voluntary” units to join the Russian army fighting in Ukraine, and to “meat” them in the battle of Avdiivka. (Severreal.org, Dec. 6). By mid-December, the situation appeared to be normalizing, and two border crossings had reopened. However, after large numbers of migrants returned, Helsinki immediately reopened its borders (Meduza, December 14). The deepening crisis in Finnish-Russian relations highlights Moscow’s deteriorating relations with Finland and other states in the region, further deteriorating already tenuous relations (Carnegie Politika, December 1) .

The Russian government aims to test Finland’s resolve by using domestic difficulties to provoke a migration crisis. The Central Organization of Finnish Trade Unions (SAK) had called for a strike to express dissatisfaction with government reforms to tackle the budget deficit. The strike took place on December 14 and caused severe disruption to Helsinki’s bus and rail systems. Mainstream Russian media covered the strike extensively to highlight Finland’s dysfunctionality (Izvestia, December 15). Russian media only briefly mentioned the signing of a defense cooperation agreement between Finland and the United States, which the Kremlin said was a “direct threat” to Russia (RIA Novosti, December 15). The agreement grants the US military access to 15 bases and logistics hubs on Finnish territory, and allows Helsinki to conduct joint exercises and store heavy equipment (Moscow Times, December 14).

Rovaniemi Air Base in northern Finland is currently being modernized to accommodate F-35 fighter jets. This will allow the base to operate jointly with the Norwegian and Swedish Air Forces to counter the potential threat of Russian forces massing on the Kola Peninsula. Russia’s strategic submarines are based in the militarized region, and last week President Vladimir Putin oversaw a flag-raising ceremony for two new Borei-class nuclear submarines. Emperor Alexander III and Yasen class Krasnoyarsk (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, December 11).

The Russian government is pouring scarce resources into building expensive new nuclear submarines in Severodvinsk, hampering other shipbuilding companies’ operations. For example, the Admiralty shipyard in St. Petersburg recently laid off hundreds of workers due to delays in the construction of its Kilo-class diesel submarine. This prompted the newly appointed owner, his VTB Bank, to fire the shipyard’s general director (Fontanka.ru, December 11). Additionally, the activities of the Baltic Fleet, the oldest fleet in the Russian Navy, are so limited that the Kremlin will redeploy newly built Karakurt-class missile corvettes to Lake Ladoga, north of St. Petersburg, near the Finish border. Plans are being accelerated (Izvestia, October 23).

The balance of naval power in the Baltic theater has shifted to Russia’s disadvantage. The lamentations of “militaristic” commentators cannot change this decline (TopWar.ru, December 5). Even mainstream experts admit that Russia’s war in Ukraine brought unprecedented unity to the Nordic countries and removed Russia from the structure of cooperation in the Baltic, Barents Sea and Arctic (Valdai Club, December The 8th). This unity around support for Ukraine was reaffirmed last week when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited Oslo to meet with the prime ministers of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden (Svoboda.org , December 13). The two countries agreed to provide new military and financial aid after the European Union was forced to postpone deliberations on 50 billion euros ($54.6 billion) in aid to Ukraine until the next summit in January 2024. comes at a critical time (Re:Russia, December 14).

A further boost to the Baltic states’ unity is that newly appointed Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is leading a pro-European government (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, December 12, EDM, December 13) reference). In a symbolic coincidence, the Aegis Ashore missile defense base in Redikovo, Poland, which has long been a nuisance for Russian strategic planners, became operational on December 15 (Kommersant, December 14). . Moscow views every step by Western powers in consolidating defensive positions in the Baltic Sea region as a growing threat to Kaliningrad. The Russian enclave was once heavily fortified, and the naval infantry brigade and S-400 surface-to-air systems that once protected the area have since been redeployed to the Ukrainian front (Moscow Times, November 26) , TopWar.ru, December 7)).

Russia is concerned that a weakened military might allow the Baltic states to tighten their control over trade routes to St. Petersburg. Indeed, Denmark may take action against Russia’s “gray fleet” of dubiously registered and poorly insured tankers transporting oil from Primorye and Ustiluga terminals (Forbes.ru, 11 22nd of the month). Estonia’s intention to establish a contiguous zone in the Gulf of Finland beyond its 12 miles of territorial sea is of particular concern to the Kremlin (Izvestia, December 9).

Damage to the Balti Connector gas pipeline and two cables on October 8 highlighted the need for countries in the Baltic Sea region to establish tighter control over transport (EDM, October 31, Neftegaz.ru , November 11).Finnish government registered in Hong Kong new new polar Bear container ship acted in conjunction with Russian nuclear power Cebu Moput Cargo ship damages pipeline. After the incident, both ships refused to cooperate with investigators and continued sailing along Russia’s Northern Sea Route (Fontanka.ru, November 24).

As countries in the Baltic Sea region become more resolute in their opposition to Russia, Russian attempts to pressure regional border crossings and damage undersea infrastructure are backfiring. There is. Russia’s strict isolation from its Baltic neighbors may serve Putin’s geopolitical plans well. But his obsession with escalating conflict with the West and asserting the Kremlin’s authoritarian “sovereignty” has led his corrupt regime to self-destruction and pushed the war-scarred country into further deterioration. I’ll have to push it. Ukraine continues to struggle with the devastating physical and human losses caused by the war. However, Europe’s future has become even more secure now that the European Union has officially begun accession negotiations with Kiev. Russia’s growing isolationism is likely to result in further failures for the Kremlin in Ukraine and the wider region.



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