- According to the IISS, China has been monitoring Russia and is showing signs of considering a long-term war.
- The think tank focused on 2023 regulations that spell out the military’s ability to recall veterans and issue wartime mobilizations.
- IISS analysts said this shows that the Chinese government is considering the possibility that it will not be able to achieve a “quick victory” if it goes to war.
Chinese military leaders are observing Russia’s protracted conflict in Ukraine and appear to be preparing China for the possibility of a prolonged war, according to an international think tank.
What has become a years-long struggle for the Kremlin, rather than the Kiev bombing, “forced the People’s Liberation Army leadership to reconsider operational plans for long-term industrial and logistical maintenance, as well as casualty evacuation and treatment. ”, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its annual report “Military Balance.”
This means the People’s Liberation Army is likely to place greater emphasis on reserves, which have been overshadowed in importance by other defense sectors, said the report, which assesses global military power. ing.
New military recruitment regulations detail the ability of China’s top defense official to issue wartime mobilization orders, which the IISS said may have been a response to Russia having difficulty filling personnel shortages.
The regulation, passed in 2023, would give Chinese leaders the power to adjust wartime conscription conditions and recall veterans, the report said.
Heavy losses in Ukraine, combined with reports of abuse of conscripts and contract soldiers on the battlefield, have created obstacles for recruitment into the Russian military. Russia mobilized around 300,000 reservists in September 2022, but the move was so unpopular that the Kremlin informed the population that there was no need to call them up a second time.
China’s new conscription measures show Beijing is considering the possibility of a similar slow-burn war in the Indo-Pacific region, said IISS senior official in charge of China’s security and defense policy. Researcher Meir Nowens told Nikkei Asia.
According to the Nikkei Shimbun, Nowens said Chinese leaders may believe that a “quick victory in a short period of time after a surprise attack” may not be achieved, but that a potential conflict could be prolonged and exhausting. He said he was aware that there was a possibility of war.
The IISS report said China was also gleaning other lessons from the war, but the think tank said it was difficult to ascertain what exactly China was learning.
“While public discussion of these lessons has been severely restricted and censored, some of the initial results of this research are evidenced by a shift in emphasis in PLA official documents and training,” the report said. Says.
This, the think tank said, was likely caused by the widespread use of drones and unmanned aerial vehicles in the Ukraine war, and included a shift in the military sector to discussions about drones and the concept of “low altitude superiority”. Ta.
The civil war in Ukraine is expected to enter its third year on February 24th.