China’s oil consumption is expected to peak sometime between 2026 and 2030 in the second half of this decade due to the acceleration of the spread of EVs, said China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, the country’s largest oil refiner. (Sinopec) said in its long-term outlook on Thursday. .
Sinopec forecasts that China, the world’s largest crude oil importer and second-largest oil consumer after the United States, will consume about 16 million barrels per day (bpd) between 2026 and 2030. ) is expected to reach its peak. 2060 as cited by Reuters.
China’s oil consumption this year is expected to be about 15.2 million barrels per day.
Sinopec also said in its forecast that China’s natural gas demand will plateau at some point around 2040, and is expected to account for 9% of primary energy use by 2025, compared to 9% of the country’s energy use. It is predicted that this will account for 13%.
Coal demand is expected to peak much earlier, around 2025, and non-fossil fuel supplies are expected to account for more than 50% of primary energy use by 2045, according to Sinopec.
However, in the short term, coal use in China and the world is increasing.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said earlier this month that global coal demand is expected to rise 1.4% this year, exceeding a record 8.5 billion tonnes for the first time.
Coal demand in the US and EU is expected to decline by a record 20%, but coal use in emerging economies “remains very strong, with rising electricity demand expected to increase by 8% in India and China by 8% in 2023.” “It will increase by 5%.” Hydropower output is weak,” the IEA said in its Coal 2023 annual report.
China’s coal demand is expected to fall next year and plateau until 2026, and global coal demand is expected to decline until 2026, “but China will have the final say,” the IEA said. .
According to the agency, China’s coal outlook will be significantly influenced by the pace of clean energy deployment, weather conditions, and structural changes in China’s economy in the coming years.
Written by Tsvetana Paraskova, Oilprice.com
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