Bankinter : Final CPI for January 2024 confirmed +3.4% y/y (previously +3.1% y/y). The basic CPI also increased by 3.6% year-on-year (3.8% year-on-year). MoM 0.1% m/m (from 0.0% m/m on Dec 23) and underlying -0.4% m/m (from +0.2% m/m on Dec 23).
Analysis: Not surprisingly, the final data for January confirms the preliminary numbers. The difference between the general interest rate and the basic interest rate has narrowed to 0.2pp. The rise in headline rates is partly due to higher electricity prices (compared to the decline in January last year) and the withdrawal of some anti-inflation measures at the beginning of the year. Our forecast is for it to average 3% y/y in 2024 and 2.3% y/y in 2025.