Taiwan presidential election: China will be the loser in Taiwan presidential election

Taiwan’s election results have been announced, with voters choosing Lai Chiende in a three-way election as the candidate who best represents what they want in a leader: the current situation.

Lai, the current vice president and leader of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, declared victory on Saturday with just over 40% of the vote, overwhelming his opponents Hou Yu-hsi of the Kuomintang Party (KMT) and Taiwan’s Ko Wen-ji. People’s Party. This is the first time in Taiwan’s democratic history that a political party has won a third term in power, and Lai has urged voters to uphold the policies of outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen in order to preserve Taiwan’s democratic system and sovereignty. I have said it repeatedly. Although we do not know what kind of reaction China will make or when it will occur, some China experts have expectations that China will become “aggressive.”

Taiwanese voters have a variety of concerns, including economic and social priorities, but the main question in the presidential election is how each candidate will manage relations with China, which claims Taiwan as its own. It’s up to you. Although Lai does not specifically seek independence from the mainland, he has been branded a “troublemaker” by the Chinese government due to both his predecessor’s stance and past statements in favor of independence.

The Chinese Communist Party has held out hope that Taiwan, where the Kuomintang defected after the 1949 and 1950 Communist civil wars, would unify with the mainland and accept Communist rule. Mr. Rai’s victory means that the goal, at least by peaceful means, under the island’s own will, is still quite far away, if it ever comes to fruition.

During Tsai’s eight years in power, Taiwan asserted its independence from the mainland by strengthening ties with the United States, incurring the wrath of Chinese President Xi Jinping. The United States was already Taiwan’s main security partner, but symbolic acts such as former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022 and Ms. Tsai’s visit to the United States last April have infuriated Beijing, and if either China has also conducted military exercises around Taiwan and launched punitive diplomatic measures.

China has yet to react to Lai’s victory, but claims the election was illegitimate as Beijing considers Taiwan to be part of the mainland. China also tried to spread disinformation favoring Kuomintang candidate Hou, who is considered more respectful of mainland China.

Mr. Lai won with only 40% of the vote, and the Democratic Party lost its parliamentary majority, indicating that voters likely feel some level of dissatisfaction with the economy and social issues such as the high cost of living.

Still, “I think the main headline is continuity rather than change,” Andrew Scovel, distinguished fellow in the China Program at the U.S. Institute of Peace, told Box.

What does Lai’s victory mean for Taiwan’s standing in the world?

During Tsai’s tenure, Taiwan lost some of its diplomatic allies, countries that had ties to Taipei rather than Beijing. Her 2023 trip to the Americas included stops in Washington as well as Latin American countries such as Guatemala to protect these relationships from Beijing’s economic diplomacy. This policy has drawn Costa Rica, Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Nicaragua into China’s diplomatic orbit over the past 16 years.

China frequently uses some form of economic coercion, whether it is to force cash-strapped Latin American and Caribbean countries to accept Beijing’s government or to take tacit control over critical infrastructure in places like Sri Lanka. Ta.

Efforts to forge remaining diplomatic alliances with Taiwan are likely to continue under Lai, but so will Taiwan’s efforts to cultivate strong friends.

Under the Tsai administration, Taiwan strengthened its relationship with the United States and forged closer ties with Japan and European countries. All three candidates emphasized the importance of U.S.-Taiwan relations, but little was said about foreign policy.

As Council on Foreign Relations Asian Studies Fellow David Sachs said in a panel discussion on Wednesday, Mr. Lai’s falling out with his competitors, particularly Mr. Hou, meant that Friday’s election was a “democracy versus autocracy” debate. At Wednesday’s panel discussion, he said that the decision was made within the framework of choosing between the two countries. .

All candidates have indicated an intention to continue the U.S.-Taiwan defense partnership, increase Taiwan’s defense budget, which currently stands at $19.1 billion (2.6% of GDP), and, as Sachs said, It shows a general agreement that it will depend on dialogue with the government. Alternatively, Mr. Xi’s “goodwill” alone will not be enough to prevent China from seizing the island by force. Mr. Lai has indicated he intends to raise that percentage, but it is not yet clear by how much.

“The Tsai administration is getting more serious about how Taiwan can best protect itself from China,” Scovel said. “They’re wrestling with, ‘How do we stop China from landing on Taiwan?'” But if they finally get there, think about how Taiwan could resist. ”

Sachs said he was not saying cross-Strait dialogue is out of the question under Lai.

“It’s not that he doesn’t want to have a dialogue with the Chinese government. He said the door is open and he’s ready to have a dialogue on an equal footing.” I don’t think it’s unfair to say that it’s about really strengthening ties with other democracies. And while cross-Channel communication is nice to have, it’s not a must-have.”

Foreign policy is important, but it’s not the only thing voters care about

The economy and cost of living are also important to Taiwanese voters, but perhaps less so than the existential threat of war or a Chinese takeover.

As Seton Hall law professor Margaret Lewis, who specializes in human rights in China and Taiwan, said during a panel discussion Wednesday, Taiwan is facing a serious real estate crisis. “Young voters [are] They’re more concerned about things like home prices,” Lewis said. “Buying a home is very expensive. That’s why there’s talk about a kind of preferential loan for first-time homebuyers, especially people under a certain age.”

According to Focus Taiwan, Lai will increase the number of affordable housing units under the plan outlined by Tsai, as well as encourage new housing construction and further participation in government-backed subsidy programs for landlords. I promised.

Another problem is the slump in Taiwan’s economy. Wages do not increase with the cost of living, and China’s economic retaliation with bans on major exports and bans on Chinese tourists to Taiwan aimed at punishing Taiwan and encouraging residents to dialogue and cooperate with the mainland will continue. It is likely that this will continue. After Rai’s victory.

Taiwan also needs to diversify its economy away from its focus on semiconductors, the world’s largest manufacturer.As Vox joshua keating I wrote this earlier this month.

“The world’s dependence on these chips is so high that they are sometimes referred to as Taiwan’s ‘silicon shield.’ The idea is that the world economy, including China itself, is too dependent on Taiwanese semiconductors to risk taking action that would cut off supplies. However, as the invasion of Ukraine showed, countries may be willing to pay serious economic costs to achieve what they see as major geopolitical goals, and unification is equally important for China. It’s basic. ”

After all, the economy is not just a domestic issue, but also a foreign policy and cross-Strait issue, which shows that relations with China are Taiwan’s biggest concern. And Mr. Lai’s sincere stance on democracy and sovereignty is sure to provoke angry reactions from China on a variety of fronts.

Scobel said he expected a “positive reaction” from the Chinese side to Lai’s victory, but said that would likely happen in the coming weeks or months, rather than within days.

“We’ll see how China reacts. The question is when and how,” Scovel said. “Five, 10, 15 years ago, it was pretty predictable what the Chinese government would do. But it’s increasingly difficult to predict what will happen and when it will happen. I think it’s becoming difficult.”