Taiwan will elect a new president on Saturday, bringing new leadership to its volatile relationship with an increasingly belligerent China. The outcome could raise or lower the risk of a crisis, giving China a potential tipping point to revive engagement or increasing the military threat that could ultimately draw the United States into war. There is a possibility that
Chinese leader Xi Jinping sends military aircraft and ships into the air and waters around Taiwan almost daily to assert China’s claim to the autonomous island of 23 million people. Washington has helped build up Taiwan’s military while maintaining “strategic ambiguity” about its plans, and President Biden has indicated the United States will protect the island from Chinese attack.
When the election began on Saturday, long lines formed at polling stations and cameras swarmed the candidates voting. After a week of loud rallies, the atmosphere was one of solemn duty. People held voting notices, nodded to friends, and quietly entered small booths to cast paper ballots that would be counted by hand after polls closed at 4 p.m.
The main election, with results expected by Saturday night, will pit the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which has promoted Taiwan’s independence, against the opposition Kuomintang Party, which favors a more conciliatory approach toward China. Chinese leaders have denounced the Democratic Progressive Party as separatist and suggested that voting for another four years under the Democratic Progressive Party would be choosing war over peace.
The Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate, Vice President Lai Ching-toku, is aiming for a third consecutive term in power, something no party has achieved since Taiwan adopted direct presidential elections in 1996.
Opposition Kuomintang candidate Hou Youxi is aiming to regain power for his party for the first time since 2016. The maverick third-party candidate, Ko Wen-ji, puts more emphasis on domestic issues and launches a political system that promises to shake up the Kuomintang.
close battle
Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party is leading by only a few points in many recent opinion polls, but victory for Hou, the KMT candidate, is not out of the question. Mr. Gao is gaining momentum, but he still has a long way to go.
As usual, the Chinese threat looms large in this year’s election campaign, but domestic issues are more prominent than in past elections. The cost of living is rising, attracting complaints, especially from younger voters, where youth turnout (usually much lower than older people) can play a decisive role.
Lai, 64, a former doctor and longtime politician, has vowed to stick to President Tsai Ing-wen’s strategy. President Tsai Ing-wen aims to distance herself from China and strengthen ties with the United States and other democracies while avoiding conflict. He also proposed a series of policies called the National Hope Project, aimed at developing Taiwan’s economy and creating better jobs for young people.
Kuomintang candidate Hou, 66, is a former police chief and currently the mayor of New Taipei. He has said he wants to continue building up its military and maintain close ties with the United States while stabilizing relations with China. He accused the Democratic Progressive Party of failing to create conditions for talks with the Chinese government and endangering Taiwan’s security.
Mr. Ke, 64, a former Taipei mayor and surgeon, is an emerging third-party candidate. He has focused on essential issues such as housing, saying he will take practical steps to improve relations with China.
Even if Mr. Ke loses, his Taiwan People’s Party could win enough seats to play an influential role in the next Legislative Yuan, where elections are scheduled for Saturday. The Democratic Progressive Party is widely expected to lose its majority there, and it is unlikely that any party will win more than half of the seats this time around.
What Taiwan wants and fears
Although Taiwan is an autonomous democracy, it is not recognized as a country by most governments and instead has ties to the Chinese government. This unstable situation means that Taiwan’s international status and relationship with China are always on the minds of voters.
Opinion polls show most Taiwanese support maintaining the island’s vague status quo and not risking Beijing’s wrath by pursuing full independence. However, the survey also shows that fewer people think the prospect of a peaceful agreement with China is acceptable.
The Chinese Communist Party’s authoritarian control over Hong Kong has tightened, and Taiwan has grown increasingly suspicious of the Chinese government. All three major presidential candidates reject China’s “one country, two systems” approach to governing Hong Kong and insist on protecting Taiwan’s status quo.
The difference between the two is a matter of diplomacy and trade.
The Kuomintang argues that holding talks and doing more business with China will help reduce the risk of war. The Democratic Progressive Party argues that Taiwan should focus on expanding trade and relations with countries other than China to avoid dangerous dependence on its powerful neighbor. Lai said dialogue with Beijing is possible if Taiwan is treated with “equal respect.”
Interests between the US and China
How both China and the United States respond to the election and the next four years of Taiwan’s government will shape the question that looms over Taiwan like a dark cloud: Will there be war?
Since Tsai took office as president eight years ago, China has increased military pressure on Taiwan. Chinese jets and warships regularly conduct military tests on Taiwan, undermining the importance of the median line of the strait between the two countries, an unofficial boundary that Chinese troops have rarely crossed until now. . Mr. Xi has made it clear that China reserves the right to use force to occupy Taiwan if it deems it necessary.
Few observers believe that a Chinese invasion is imminent.
Regardless of who wins the election, Beijing is likely to continue its pressure on Taiwan, but may expand its mix of strategies. It could make bigger demands and increase military invasions. They may also use economic sweeteners and other tools to open the door to engagement. Taiwan’s next president will be sworn in on May 20, but China may use the time until then to test its next leader.
Mr. Lai is the main concern of the Chinese government. Chinese officials have described him as untrustworthy and a supporter of unreconstructed Taiwanese independence.
Beijing could also impose economic sanctions, for example by revoking tariff concessions granted to Taiwanese products. Alternatively, it could seek to poach more allies from the few countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
The United States could also quietly emphasize its cautious stance toward Taiwan’s next president as it grapples with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. The White House announced it would send a high-level delegation of former government officials to Taiwan after the election, a common practice for decades. In response, China called on the United States to “refrain from intervening” in the Taiwan issue.
Hou’s victory could prompt a warmer reaction from the Chinese government. China is likely to view this victory as a rebuke to pro-independence forces. However, today’s Kuomintang is not as friendly toward China as it once was. Hou said he would “not touch the unification issue” during his term.
Even if Hou were to win, the post-election calm in tensions may not last long. In his speech on Dec. 31, Mr. Xi said that the unification of Taiwan and China is a “historical necessity.” Tensions between the United States and China over Taiwan as well as many other issues have made maintaining peace increasingly difficult.
shadow of beijing
China has been trying to influence Taiwan’s elections for decades. During the 1996 vote, the Chinese government held large-scale military exercises and fired missiles into waters near Taiwan.
According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense, China has now flown high-altitude balloons over the island in what some experts see as a warning.
Taiwan’s government has also repeatedly warned that China is waging a “war of perception” aimed at influencing Taiwanese voters using disinformation and media manipulation. The influence efforts also include videos spreading rumors about Tsai’s private life, which Tsai’s office said are false.
Taiwanese experts also discovered a Chinese-originated online campaign attempting to amplify skepticism toward the United States with messages claiming that China is not a true friend of Taiwan and would abandon the island.
China has largely ignored allegations of interference. The Chinese government has called the election “purely an internal Chinese matter” and has refused to officially recognize the vote as legitimate.