Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party wins third consecutive presidential election as voters ignore China’s warnings

Taipei, Taiwan
CNN
—

Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party won a historic third consecutive presidential election on Saturday as voters shrugged off warnings from China that re-election would increase the risk of conflict.

Taiwan’s current vice president, Lai Ching-de, declared victory Saturday night, but his two main opposition candidates both conceded defeat.

In a speech to jubilant supporters on Saturday night, Mr. Rai called his victory “a victory for the democratic community.”

“We are telling the international community that in the gap between democracy and authoritarianism, we still stand on the side of democracy,” he said.

“I will act in accordance with the democratic and free constitutional order in a manner that is balanced and preserves the cross-strait status quo,” he added. “At the same time, we are determined to protect Taiwan from continued threats and intimidation from China.”

Mr. Lai’s deputy president was Mr. Xiao Bi-jin, who recently served as Taiwan’s special envoy to the United States.

Taiwan’s Central Election Commission results are still being finalized as victory and concession speeches are being delivered, with Mr. Lai winning about 40 percent of the popular vote and his two main rivals This was followed by 33% and 26% respectively.

The tumultuous election campaign, which showcases Taiwan’s vibrant democratic credentials, raises questions of livelihoods and how to deal with neighboring China, a giant one-party state that is gaining power under leader Xi Jinping. There was a dispute over a difficult issue. powerful and belligerent.

This result means that Taiwan, as a de facto sovereign state, will strengthen its defenses against the Chinese threat and deepen its ties with democracies, even if it means economic punishment or military threats from Beijing. This shows that voters support the Democratic Party’s view that

It also further downplays eight years of increasingly assertive strategy toward Taiwan under Xi Jinping, who has vowed that the island’s eventual “unification” with the mainland is a “historical necessity.”

Like President Tsai Ing-wen, who cannot be re-elected due to term limits, Lai is openly disliked by China’s Communist Party leadership, and his victory is unlikely to lead to improved relations between China and Taipei.

After Tsai took office, China cut off most communications with Taipei, increased diplomatic, economic and military pressure on the autonomous island, and turned the Taiwan Strait into one of the world’s major geopolitical flashpoints. changed.

China’s ruling Communist Party considers Taiwan part of its territory, even though it has never ruled it. While successive leaders of the Chinese Communist Party have vowed to ultimately achieve “unification,” President Xi has repeatedly said that the Taiwan issue “should not be passed down from generation to generation,” and he has emphasized that mission by mid-century. It has been linked to the goal of “national reconstruction.”

The Democratic Progressive Party emphasizes that Taiwan is not subordinate to the Chinese Communist Party and that Taiwan’s future should be decided solely by its 23.5 million people.

Ahead of Saturday’s vote, the Chinese government warned Taiwanese voters to “make the right choice” and “recognize the extreme danger that Lai Chingde will provoke cross-Strait confrontation and conflict.”

Vice-presidential candidate Xiao has been twice sanctioned by China for being a “stubborn separatist.”

Speaking to the media ahead of his victory speech on Saturday night, Lai said he hoped relations with China would return to a “healthy and sustainable way of interacting”.

“In the future, we hope that China will recognize the new situation and understand that only peace can benefit both sides of the strait.”

Lai’s victory comes as the United States seeks to stabilize its rocky relationship with China and prevent competition from descending into conflict. During the Tsai administration, Taiwan strengthened its relationship with the United States, its biggest international backer, and increased aid and arms sales to Taiwan.

U.S. officials said the United States would stick to its long-standing policy toward Taiwan no matter who takes the top spot. Following the election, the Biden administration plans to send an unofficial delegation to Taipei, including former senior officials, following past practice, senior officials said.

TY Wang, a professor at Illinois State University, said the delegation’s visit “will be a very symbolic way to support Taiwan.”

Saturday’s result is another major blow to the Taiwan Nationalist Party, which supports improved relations with China and has not held the presidential position since 2016.

The Chinese government has made little secret that it wants the Kuomintang to return to power. During the election campaign, the KMT accused Lai and the Democratic Progressive Party of needlessly escalating tensions with China.

Lev Nachman, a political science professor at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, said Mr. Lai will have to make some economic adjustments, given the public’s persistent dissatisfaction with low wages and low housing prices, but he will have to make some adjustments to foreign policy and the cross-Strait. He said that he expected to generally follow suit on issues such as relationships. Tsai’s approach.

“A lot of[Lai’s]campaign has been trying to reassure domestic audiences as well as international audiences that he is Tsai Ing-wen 2.0,” he said.

That would not be welcomed in Beijing.

Days before the election, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said that by following in the footsteps of Tsai, Lai was pursuing a path of provocation and confrontation that would bring Taiwan “increasingly closer to war and depression.”

Analysts say China could signal its displeasure by increasing economic and military pressure on Taiwan in the coming days and weeks, or hold off on a stronger response until Lai takes office in May. It is pointed out that there is a sex.

“There are many possibilities that China could make a fuss over the Democratic Progressive Party’s victory, either now or later this year,” Nachman said.

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And the Chinese government also has a wide range of enforcement tools in its toolbox.

Ahead of the vote, China abolished preferential tariffs on some Taiwanese imports under the free trade agreement. There is also the possibility of expanding the range of products covered or suspending the agreement altogether.

China could also further increase military pressure on Taiwan, bringing more fighter jets and warships into the island’s air and sea areas, a tactic it has frequently deployed in recent years.

However, ahead of the vote, Taiwan’s security officials warned that China would take large-scale action immediately after the election, citing unsuitable winter weather conditions, problems with the Chinese economy, and efforts by both countries to stabilize relations. He said he did not expect military action. Bilateral summit meeting in November.

Analysts also said that while rising military tensions could increase the risk of accidents and miscalculations, they do not necessarily portend an imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

“Just because the Democratic Progressive Party is in power doesn’t mean China will start a war,” Nachman said.

“We’ve clearly been uncomfortable with the Democratic Progressive Party being in power for the past eight years, but we were able to find an uncomfortable compromise that didn’t lead to war. And the hope is that President Rai Even now, we can continue this uncomfortable silence without going to war.”