In the bustling area of City Hall in the southern Taiwanese city of Tainan, a vast, brightly lit collection of American memorabilia reflected decades of intense courtship. The map highlights sister cities in Ohio and Arizona.
There was a baseball extravaganza, and the tables were decorated with American flags. In the midst of this, a card was sent to the United States that seemed to reveal the mindset of Tainan, a metropolis of 1.8 million people, and almost all of Taiwan.
“Together, stronger,” it said. “Unity conquers all.”
The message was aspirational, a graphic expression of deep anxiety. Taiwan is a less-than-democracy nation of 23 million people, threatened by a rapacious China, and its future depends on how the United States meets its ultimate demands. The plan is to fight if another world superpower attacks Taiwan and endangers Taiwan’s autonomy.
Now, more than ever, the difficult psychology associated with that predicament is showing signs of decline. With China asserting ever more assertive claims to the island and divisions deepening over how actively the United States should be involved in world affairs, Taiwan has become a center of contradictions and doubts, with questions about its own government’s plans and Beijing’s China’s intentions rather than its plans. Washington.
Vice President Lai Ching-de of the Democratic Progressive Party won Taiwan’s presidential election this month, in part because he appeared to be the candidate most likely to bring the United States closer to Taiwan.
Pre-election polls found that the majority of Taiwanese wanted stronger ties despite the risk of provoking China. They confirm the recent increase in arms sales from the United States. They believe President Biden is working hard to defend the island, but they fear it won’t be enough.
Confidence in America plummets as they observe Washington stalled on military aid to Ukraine and Israel and try to imagine what America would actually do to Taiwan in a crisis. ing. The same poll in Taiwan showing support for the US approach found that only 34% of respondents considered the US a trustworthy country, down from 45% in 2021.
Recent studies of online discussions have shown similar trends, deepening concerns that the world’s oldest democracy lacks the power and interest to be genuinely useful. In interviews, voters said they felt like passengers. Many see the US as an unpredictable driver who may be able to get you to safety, but who may also abandon the wheel.
And on this small island, about 100 miles from China, where the defense budget is a fraction of Beijing’s, such suspicions about the United States could have dangerous implications of their own.
Taiwanese and U.S. analysts wonder what widespread mistrust of the United States could cause, and perhaps for some, a determination to step up self-defense. It’s unknown. But for others, it contributes to a lack of urgency. The argument becomes, what’s the point if survival is up to Americans and no one knows if they’ll come?
The risk for Taiwan, and those who see it as a first line of defense whose loss to China would give China even more power to dominate Asia, is that it could become more susceptible to being swallowed up by mistrust of the United States. It means that it has sex.
“It’s really important that they believe the U.S. is going to intervene on their behalf, because that will affect how well they hold out,” said Oriana Schuyler Mastro, an international fellow at Stanford University. There’s a lot of research showing that it can.” American Enterprise Institute. “And we need them to hold out long enough until we get there.”
abandoned complex
The roots of Taiwan’s mistrust can be seen in the rows of moldy houses perched atop skyscrapers in the island’s bustling capital, Taipei. Starting around 1950, American soldiers occupied these bungalows with mottled floors and large gardens.
The military presence appeared to be permanent. In 1971, when the treaty guaranteed the United States to defend Taiwan from any attacker, there were about 9,000 American troops on Taiwan. Then they quickly disappeared.
The restoration of U.S. relations with China in 1979, following President Richard M. Nixon’s visit to Beijing in 1972, spurred a wave of U.S. commitments and personnel withdrawals. Neighbors recalled friends disappearing with toys and kitchen utensils left to rust.
Eva Wang worked as a legal advisor for the U.S. military in the 1960s. She said she cried the day U.S. officials lowered the American flag for the last time in 1979, learning her powerful lesson: “Our destiny was outside of our control.”
Her husband, former prosecutor Wayne Chen, concluded, as did many others, that Americans could not be trusted.
“If a war really breaks out and the Chinese Communist Party comes, of course the U.S. military will not protect us,” he said, referring to the Chinese Communist Party.
Taiwanese researchers have found that 1979 continues to shape Taiwanese views. Even for those who weren’t alive at the time, America’s reversal is as endlessly discussed and stinging as a parent’s infidelity.
“If you look at the skepticism that’s happening within Taiwan today, it’s mainly about the United States abandoning Taiwan,” said Jasmine, editor of U.S.-Taiwan Watch, a think tank that recently contributed to a report on suspicions against the United States.・Mr. Lee says. “It’s only natural because I’ve been abandoned before.”
Nixon’s history is still baked into the relationship. The United States has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” since 1979, refusing to commit explicitly to the defense of Taiwan, which China considers lost territory. That means every action America takes is closely scrutinized through the lens of past and potential betrayal.
America’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US government’s decision not to send troops. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022 led to a strong military response from China. According to opinion polls and discussions in Chinese-language media and online platforms, news events have a significant impact on Taiwanese public opinion toward the United States.
Stanford University’s Dr. Mastro said that in some cases, “Taiwan’s position on credibility doesn’t make sense.” Opinion polls in Taiwan show growing skepticism because the US has not taken further steps to help Ukraine, but the reality is that the US is in part “prepared to defend Taiwan”. She said she controlled herself.
But abandonment is not the only worry. Data scientists at a Taiwanese think tank identified 84 individual stories demonstrating skepticism toward the United States in online discourse from 2021 to 2023. Some argued that the United States was too weak to protect far-flung Taiwan, or that Taiwan was a destructive force and creator. Of chaos. Some declared America anti-democratic and a “false friend.”
Researchers said Chinese commenters often tried to amplify the criticism, and that while the “fake friend” remark came from the mainland, almost everything else stemmed from Taiwanese insecurities. It is said that
Anxiety and dissatisfaction with a lack of influence over one’s own destiny is an even bigger part of Taiwan’s identity, said Pan Shinshin, an associate professor of sociology at Taipei’s Dongzhou University who studies Taiwanese public opinion. .
Taiwan stands at a lopsided crossroads in U.S.-China relations. Taiwan lives in the shadow of an increasingly authoritarian giant that sees it as an arrogant breakaway appendage that must be returned by force if necessary. It is also thousands of miles from the United States, and polls since 2021 show that a majority of Americans oppose sending troops to Taiwan’s defense. In one recent poll, 53% of Republicans said the United States should not be involved in world affairs.
“There is no anti-Americanism here,” Dr. Pan said. “But there’s a fair amount of skepticism.”
Seeking stability
Some of Taiwan’s most vocal US skeptics have learned from personal experience as well as history. They were graduate students in New York during the coronavirus pandemic, disillusioned by the chaotic response and anti-Asian bias. Silicon Valley-linked engineers also fear that pressure to manufacture in the United States will weaken Taiwan’s microchip industry, which makes 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. There is. They are stealing the jewels that make the world want to shut this island out. Chinese hands.
They’re also immigrants, like Amy Chow, 67, a no-nonsense restaurant owner from San Francisco who returned to Taiwan this month to vote. Like many others, she thinks the U.S. would support Taiwan in a war, but she’s not sure and doesn’t believe the U.S. would think of anything other than its own economic interests, she said. Ta.
“Americans just want us to buy more weapons,” she said at a political rally in Tainan. “They want our money and tips.”
“If Trump wins, he worries about the impact of another four years of ‘America First’ foreign policy,” adding: “Things will only get worse.”
Taiwanese politicians have been reluctant to discuss such concerns, including Lai, the former mayor of Tainan, where the pro-American shrine is located. But in a sign of his own priorities, he addressed the international media after securing his victory last Saturday night, before thanking supporters. For a leader who once came under fire from the Chinese government for calling himself a “pragmatic activist for Taiwan’s independence,” this is a sign that he believes nothing is more important to Taiwan than outside support. It seemed to suggest.
It’s not just that he and other officials are lobbying for help. Taiwan’s 2024 budget includes raising military spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product, or $19 billion. But analysts say Chinese leaders have been slow to transition to drones, missiles and other asymmetric weapons needed to deter a Chinese amphibious invasion.
There is even less sense of urgency in Taiwanese society. Volunteer recruitment into Taiwan’s military has been declining since 2021. Postponement of compulsory military service is common, and civil defense training at the local level, although improved, remains infrequent.
U.S. officials and analysts often lament inaction. They don’t show much interest in suspicions against the United States. When Laura Rosenberger, president of the American Institute in Taiwan, the nominal US embassy, was asked about the growing skepticism at her press conference, she simply praised Taiwan’s “robust democracy.”
But instead of flattery, many islanders yearn for honest reflection on America’s past and present struggles, and a shift from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity. Some argue that U.S. troops and equipment will be stationed on Taiwan. Exchange information, develop and publicize common plans. It will become a pawn in a long-term effort to protect the island on which the U.S.-led world order depends on whether it wins or loses.
“We need a commitment to spell out why Taiwan is important to U.S. interests,” Dr. Pan said.
She added: “We need to know that there is stability in power.”
John Liu and christopher buckley I contributed a report from Taipei, Taiwan.