The election of Lai Ching-de as Taiwan’s next president on Saturday is a historic achievement for his independence-minded party, but it also comes amid tensions with China in one of the world’s most alarming hotspots. It is certain that the situation will increase and become a challenge for the United States.
Lai of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party won a close race with 40.1% of the vote, defeating two rivals who supported closer ties with China. Three consecutive terms for the president of any political party is unprecedented in Taiwan, indicating that, for at least some voters, antipathy toward mainland China outweighs growing dissatisfaction with the economy and other domestic issues. .
But on Saturday night, as a packed house of supporters celebrated the Democratic Progressive Party’s victory in front of party headquarters here in Taipei, Mr. Lai struck a calm tone in his victory speech, stressing the challenges he faces over the next four years, including conflict with Taiwan. seemed to have that in mind. China’s parliament is divided and public dissatisfaction is growing.
“The election showed that the people expect effective government and strong checks and balances. We fully understand and respect those views.” “We will confidently pursue exchanges and cooperation with China, using exchange in place of obstacles and dialogue in place of confrontation.”
Supporters of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, which won a third term as president on Saturday, cheered at a rally in New Taipei City.
(Louise Delmotte/Associated Press)
But the election of a new Democratic Progressive Party president spurred a strong reaction from Beijing, which considers Taiwan part of its territory and accuses Mr. Lai of being a separatist who is pushing the 23 million-population island to war with mainland China. There is a high possibility that it will be applied. Analysts expect Beijing to signal its displeasure by stepping up displays of military and economic power, which may signal resolve but also threaten to spark an inadvertent conflict that could spiral out of control. It would increase the risk.
“We view these pressure tactics, especially military provocations, as a deterrent. [that] If you do the wrong thing, we will fight,” said Michael Cunningham, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Center for Asian Studies. “The Chinese government knows that it is unusual for an incumbent party to stay in power for this long. It will work to ensure that Mr. Lai’s term is only four years.”
On Saturday, Lai, 64, reiterated his intention to maintain the status quo with China and maintain peace on Taiwan. However, he has strongly promoted the idea of Taiwan’s sovereignty in the past, and the Chinese government remains deeply distrustful of him and his party.
Many analysts also see his election victory as a conditional victory, largely due to the party’s traditional support base and the failures of other candidates.
Opposition parties together account for about 60% of the vote, a sign of growing fatigue with the Democratic Progressive Party (DP), which could hamper Mr. Yori’s ability to tackle international and domestic issues. His lack of a legislative majority in the 113-member parliament will also make it more difficult for the new president to advance his policies.
“This is going to be a really tough government,” said Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei. “Right now they have to deal with a very divided society and a very divided legislature.”
Presidential candidate Hou Yu-xi of the opposition Kuomintang party greets party supporters in New Taipei City, Taiwan.
(Ng Han Guan/AP)
Mr. Lai’s election marks a very dangerous crossroads for the United States, China, and Taiwan. The sovereignty of the autonomous island has become a flashpoint in the deteriorating relationship between the two superpowers, raising concerns that military conflict could quickly spread across the Asia-Pacific region. This makes maintaining peace in the already delicate balance of the Taiwan Strait even more difficult for the next government in Taipei.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned that Taiwan will eventually need to be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. During the eight years under outgoing Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, cross-Strait relations have deepened, with President Tsai Ing-wen taking a more confrontational stance toward Beijing while also engaging with other democracies, particularly the United States. strengthened the relationship.
Tsai, who the Chinese government denies involvement in, will resign, citing term limits.
The United States has long adhered to a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.” China acknowledges its claim to the autonomous island, but does not support it. Although it does not recognize Taiwan as a country, Washington maintains government contacts with Taipei and sells defense weapons to Taipei. U.S. officials have declined to say whether they would provide military aid in the event of a conflict to prevent China from launching an attack and Taiwan from formally declaring independence.
But in recent years, Beijing has accused the United States of shifting away from that policy and secretly encouraging Taiwan to pursue independence. When then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) visited Taipei in August 2022, Chinese authorities launched unprecedented military exercises around Taiwan and restricted the import of some fruits and fish. I responded by stopping.
This military and economic pressure continues, including increased sea and air patrols and the suspension of preferential tariffs on Taiwanese trade last month.
Mr. Lai had long been the front-runner, but his lead in opinion polls narrowed significantly in the weeks before the election. He campaigned on the belief that he would continue Tsai’s policy of strengthening Taiwan’s international relations and defense capabilities while maintaining the status quo.
Wenty Song, a political scientist at the Australian National University, said of the Democratic Progressive Party’s third consecutive presidential victory, “It just proves that it is possible to break the eight-year curse.” “They can signal to the Chinese government that they have staying power.”
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Chinese authorities have accused Lai, a former doctor, of being a dangerous separatist who could draw Taiwan into a devastating war. Lai’s description in 2017 of himself as a “pragmatic activist for Taiwan’s independence” reinforces that characterization, leading Beijing and the opposition to label him as a politician likely to provoke China’s military ire. It gave us the material to label it as such.
The Chinese Nationalist Party, better known as Kuomintang or Kuomintang, also framed the election as a choice between war and peace. The candidate, former police chief and current New Taipei City mayor Hou Yuxi, 66, has emphasized his dedication to “law and order” and said he aims to improve relations with the Chinese government but does not support unification.
The Kuomintang, which fled mainland China after losing the civil war in 1949, has lost much support among younger generations, most of whom now consider themselves more Taiwanese than Chinese. The island’s oldest political party has struggled to attract younger voters and shake its pro-Beijing image.
But there are also signs that voters are also dissatisfied with the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, and particularly want to express their dissatisfaction with stagnant economic growth.
The Kuomintang won a landslide victory in Taiwan’s local elections in 2022, and Tsai will resign as Democratic Progressive Party chairman. A November poll by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation showed that 57.4% of respondents were dissatisfied with the Democratic Progressive Party’s governance, including its approach to cross-strait relations and the economy.
That dissatisfaction spurred an unexpected wave of early support for Ko Wen-je as a third-party alternative, especially among Taiwanese disillusioned with the two major parties. The 64-year-old former trauma surgeon ran for president this year from the Taiwan People’s Party, which he founded, after serving two terms as mayor of Taipei.
He accused the Democratic Progressive Party of being too hostile to Beijing and the Kuomintang of being too acquiescent. However, his momentum waned after he unsuccessfully tried to win a joint ticket with Mr. Hou and the Democratic Progressive Party.
Beijing’s response to another Democratic Progressive Party president sets the tone for volatile relations with the United States, which have seen some thaw since President Biden and Chinese leader Xi met for the first time in a year in November. It’s going to happen. The two sides agreed to resume military dialogue, which had been suspended after Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Mr. Biden reiterated that U.S. policy toward the island had not changed, but Mr. Xi reportedly reassured Mr. Biden that there were no imminent plans to use military force.
“The momentum for improving U.S.-China relations continues,” said Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at International Crisis Group. She said: “That will encourage China to adopt a more measured or vague form of pressure. But the pressure will certainly be there.”