The US keeps a close eye on the Taiwan election as China reiterates its territorial claims over the island | Election News

Last month, Joe Biden and Xi Jinping strolled through the lush gardens of a grand California mansion and had a candid and intimate conversation.

It was the first face-to-face summit in a year, and the Chinese president was frank – Xi told his US counterpart that Taiwan was the most important and dangerous issue in the two countries’ fractious relationship.

As Taiwanese voters head to the polls on January 13 to choose a new president and parliament, Beijing’s policies toward the autonomous island it claims as its own will once again be in the spotlight, and the United States will be watching closely.

Currently, the current vice president and candidate for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DP), William Lai Kiyonori, is expected to win.

The outcome will likely anger Beijing, which portrays Lai as a “separatist” bent on independence, and ensure continued tensions in the narrow strait that separates the island from China.

Rory Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said: “Washington is prepared to deal with whatever choices Taiwanese voters make, but there are a variety of opportunities and challenges depending on the outcome of the election.” It is certain that something will happen.” The spokesperson told Al Jazeera that the US would consider strategies for “appropriate political signals” to deter China’s military response.

Since voters first elected Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party as president in 2016, the Chinese government has stepped up pressure on Taiwan, cutting off all official dialogue, carrying out military operations around the island, and targeting Taipei. It is encouraging its few remaining formal diplomatic allies to switch their recognition to China.

But the United States, which maintains official relations with China, is Taiwan’s most important international supporter and is legally obligated to provide Taipei with the means to defend itself. In August, it approved the sale of millions of dollars of military equipment and weapons to the island.

potential consequences

According to opinion polls, Lai has a slight lead over Hou Youxi of the opposition Kuomintang Party.

Although the Kuomintang is seen as friendly toward China, none of its candidates support reunification, which is the cornerstone of China’s policy toward the island. All candidates, to varying degrees, want to continue working with the United States and keep Chinese influence at bay.

Despite her outrage, Ms. Tsai, who insists that Taiwanese people should choose their own future, has welcomed dozens of American politicians, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, since taking office, and has sent key representatives via the United States. Japan is strengthening its cooperation with Washington, including holding talks with the United States. In China.

“I would argue that she is now the best president of Taiwan that the United States has ever had,” said Caris Templeman, program manager for the Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. Ta.

A victory for Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party, who is also visiting the United States, could push Taiwan further away from Beijing, which has accused Lai of seeking independence and risking war.

During Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August 2022, the Chinese government launched unprecedented war games in and around Taipei, cutting off military communication channels with Washington.

“Mr. Lai will be very focused on making sure the relationship with the United States is really strong in the absence of an open channel for dialogue with China,” Daniels said.

Daniels has said that if the Kuomintang’s Hou wins, the U.S. will need to find a way to counter China’s growing influence, but analysts say Hou’s victory could raise the temperature of relations between the two countries. He said that lowering the U.S.-China relationship could potentially benefit U.S.-China relations. Straits related.

“This would allow the United States and China to move Taiwan from the center of their relationship to the sidelines,” said Stanford University’s Templeman.

One caveat is that the parliamentary election will also be held on January 13, and while Mr. Lai is leading the presidential race polls, experts say the Democratic Progressive Party could lose its majority in Congress. It states that there is.

In this type of scenario, the U.S. government will be watching closely to see how candidates handle inter-party and intra-party negotiations.

Questions are already being raised about the ability of the opposition parties to work together, with attempts by the Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party to submit a unified vote to collectively challenge the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Mr. Hou and the TPP Party’s Ko Wenji ultimately failed to agree on which candidate should run for president, resulting in an embarrassing public fiasco.

Policies and principles

Whatever the outcome, the United States will continue to emphasize the need for dialogue and the avoidance of military conflict, especially since the military dialogue that fell victim to Pelosi’s visit was revived last month.

In recent years, the U.S. has stepped up transit through the Taiwan Strait, but Daniels said this risks being misunderstood.

“These small-scale clashes, which each side thinks are defensive, will be perceived by the other side as very aggressive, and it will start a cycle of escalation,” Daniels told Al Jazeera. he said.

Daniels suggests that instead of a major diplomatic visit that would raise political and military temperatures, the United States could move forward with more substantive commitments.

“A free trade agreement between the United States and Taiwan would be a very strong signal of support in the relationship. And the United States could make foreign military sales to Taiwan,” Daniels said. “Taiwan has purchased a lot of equipment, but as I understand it, it has not yet been delivered.”

Although the U.S. government supports deterrence against Taiwan, it has long maintained a policy of intentionally vague “strategic ambiguity” regarding Taiwan’s status, exemplified by its “One China” approach.

For the United States, “one China” is a policy that officially recognizes Beijing as China’s sole legitimate government and recognizes but does not accept Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China.

In contrast, for China, “one China” is a principle that underpins its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan.

But since Mr Biden took office in 2021, questions have been raised whether the US has changed its approach.

The president has said several times that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a military conflict with Beijing, and the White House limited his comments and reiterated that the status quo remains.

“There are certain contradictions at the heart of U.S. policy toward Taiwan, and that certainly contributes to skepticism across the U.S.,” Templeman said.

“It’s beyond our control.”

Among those who have questioned U.S. involvement in Taiwan is S. Leo Chan, a documentary filmmaker who closely monitors what U.S. politicians say about Taiwan.

“Mr. Biden says one thing, the administration says another. It’s endless uncertainty,” Chiang Kai-shek told Al Jazeera.

Chiang Kai-shek is not alone in questioning US involvement.

According to a survey conducted in September by Taiwan’s top research institute, the Academia Sinica Institute of Western Studies, Taiwanese people’s trust in the United States has fallen from 45.3% in 2021 to 34% this year.

Nearly one-third said they did not believe the United States would use force to support Taiwan if China resorted to the use of force to achieve its goal of controlling Taiwan.

Chiang Kai-shek, who holds both American and Taiwanese passports, has spent time in both countries. As a Taiwanese resident planning to vote, he says it’s a worrying sign to see a divided Congress and Republicans blocking sending additional aid to Ukraine last month.

“What I fear most is the politicization of Ukraine, which is likely to occur in Taiwan as well,” Chiang Kai-shek said. “They tell the world that we are the champions of democracy, but in reality that is not necessarily the case.”

But experts caution against making direct comparisons between Taiwan and Ukraine. Taiwan is the United States’ 10th largest trading partner and an important source of advanced semiconductor chips, Templeman said, emphasizing the close economic relationship.

More than 23 million Taiwanese citizens are targeted by the two superpowers.

Chiang Kai-shek grew up in the 1970s, when Taiwan was under martial law and the basement of his grandmother’s house was designated as an air-raid shelter for nearby blocks during military training.

Today, Taiwan is one of the most robust democracies in the region, and basements have become living spaces and storage spaces.

“We’ve been living with this problem for a long time, and there’s a sense that this is beyond our control,” Chen said. “I want Taiwan to have the right to self-determination. And unfortunately, that’s not going to happen anytime soon. That’s a big source of frustration.”