In 2016, Donald Trump campaigned on a platform that included a tougher stance on trade with China, and the US-China trade war became a major issue during his presidency. But the Biden administration has quietly continued the Trump tariff system and even enacted stricter regulations targeting the use of Chinese technology, including semiconductors. Trump is expected to win the Republican presidential nomination again and has signaled he will impose even higher tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods. What effect will it actually have on the US economy and world trade? Will it lead to higher prices for Americans, while America is still suffering from inflation? Or will it actually result in an economic slowdown that suppresses prices? Will domestic manufacturing in the United States be strengthened to fill this gap? Or will we simply import more from other countries? In this episode, we speak with Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, and Mackenzie Hawkins, U.S. industrial policy reporter for Bloomberg News. We have published a detailed analysis of the impact of these potential tariffs.. This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.
Key insights from the pod:
What will be the economic impact of tariffs? — 5:22
Have tariffs been imposed under the Trump and Biden administrations? — 7:13
How tariffs on China became a consensus in Washington, D.C. — 9:07
Manufacturing protectionism excluding China — 13:04
Why President Trump’s tariffs didn’t cause inflation — 15:59
What 60% tariffs mean for the US economy — 17:28
Ripple effects of additional tariffs — 18:50
Clean energy transition and pricing — 22:28
Perceived threat from Chinese EVs — 24:55
Economic cooperation between Russia and China — 27:41
How “leaky” will additional tariffs on China be? — 31:58
China’s perception of Biden vs. Trump — 34:40