Tuvalu is one of only three Pacific island countries that still recognizes Taiwan, following Nauru’s diplomatic stance towards China last month. But that could change after Tuvalu’s pro-Taiwan prime minister surprisingly lost his seat in last week’s general election.
Seve Paeniou, the more pro-China finance minister, has not only been re-elected, but has also emerged as one of the front-runners for prime minister.
Paeniu told the Washington Post that he was open to recognizing China. This leaves Taiwan’s only two allies in the Pacific Ocean, Palau and the Marshall Islands, and fewer than 12 countries in the world.
“As far as I’m concerned, it comes down to which country will provide the most support to achieve Tuvalu’s development priorities and aspirations,” Paeniu said. “The entire relationship needs to be carefully reviewed and evaluated before making an informed decision regarding the switch.”
As China competes with the United States for power and influence in the Pacific, it has worked tirelessly to lure its allies away from Taiwan through a variety of means, especially money.
Beijing has been accused of providing much-needed funds to struggling island nations like Nauru and handing out envelopes of cash to officials, an accusation the Chinese government denies. China approaches politicians in the Pacific region when they visit overseas, inviting some to lunch and monitoring others. Two leaders in the Pacific region said they changed their phone numbers after receiving frequent disparaging calls from Chinese officials.
“China sees an opportunity,” said Slanger Whipps Jr., president of Palau, one of Taiwan’s two remaining allies in the Pacific. He changed his phone number after receiving furious calls from Chinese officials. Mr Whipps said he and his country were under intense pressure from the Chinese government ahead of elections this November.
“They’re trying to get the message across: ‘Join us and we’ll be better,'” he said in an interview. “And when we’re hit by COVID-19, when we’re in a lot of debt, when our country is facing a wall and China is saying we should do everything for them. When I am, I am tempted.”
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to a request for comment.
This is all part of Beijing’s decades-long campaign to intimidate Taiwan, which it claims is part of China, intensified under Chinese leader Xi Jinping. He recently said Chinese control of the island was “inevitable.” Beijing has been pressuring countries to recognize China rather than Taiwan as a way to strengthen its assertiveness and isolating Taiwan on the international stage by targeting allies.
Chinese authorities appear to be doubling down on these efforts after the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-de, who Beijing considers a dangerous separatist, was elected as Taiwan’s next president.
Nauru’s surprise switch
Two days after Lai’s election, Nauru gave Taiwan two hours’ notice that it would end its ties with Taipei “with immediate effect” and establish ties with China.
As recently as November, Nauru and Taiwan were discussing new policies. airline routes. That same month, Nauru officials met with Taiwan and other Pacific allies on the sidelines of a summit in the Cook Islands. There was no sign that Nauru was going to switch. “I thought everything was great,” said Whipps, who was at the meeting.
But by the end of the year, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu heard otherwise. Nauru’s foreign minister, Lionel Aingimea, told him about the island. Mr Wu said overseas refugee processing centers were under “tremendous financial pressure” due to reduced funding from Australia.
Mr. Wu offered to talk with the United States and Australia to make up for the shortfall, but China was working behind the scenes.
Wu soon learned that the Chinese government was offering Nauru a deal worth more than $100 million. This is more than half of Nauru’s 2023-24 budget and more than 10 times the amount of project-based aid that Taiwan provides to Nauru each year.
“We heard from our friends in Nauru that China promised them unlimited assistance in whatever they requested,” Wu said.
Aingimea said last month’s diplomatic shift was so China could better support Nauru. “To say this is a dollar issue is a complete insult to us,” he told the Post. “It’s about our development strategy.”
China’s government has agreed to infrastructure plans including sports stadiums, schools, hospitals and office complexes, as well as plans to relocate vulnerable coastal buildings to higher ground and extend the life of an aging phosphate mine. Was.
Talks with China began more than a year ago, Aingimea said.Nauru never told Taipei it was considering switching recognition However, it did mention “geopolitical pressures.”
“They should have stood up and said they were coming to help,” Aingimea said. “We are not a nation of beggars who reach out and ask people for favors.”
Following the success in Nauru, Chinese officials have vowed to woo more of Taiwan’s remaining allies, many of them 11 smaller nations and the Holy See. The head of the diplomatic team overseeing the reopening of the Chinese embassy in Nauru last week suggested the remaining three Pacific nations would soon make the switch.
“China has already established diplomatic relations with 10 Pacific countries. Nauru is the 11th and I am sure this will not be the last,” Wang Xuguang told Chinese state media.
The competition for allies shows that China is seeking to gain influence in areas normally under Western influence.
“Until now, the Chinese government has mainly focused on Taiwan itself,” said Lu Ye-chun, a professor of foreign affairs at National Chengchi University in Taipei. “They have now shown that they intend to compete with the United States and Australia by taking away Taiwan’s allies in the South Pacific.”
Nauru’s recognition switch also signals a new effort by Beijing to make the “one China” principle, which claims Taiwan is part of China, an accepted fact. Nauru announced its switch to and adherence to the one-China principle, saying it was “in line” with the 1971 UN resolution that established Beijing as China’s sole representative to the UN. By linking the two, Lu said, Beijing is “sneaking the idea that Taiwan is part of China into the rules-based international order.”
Tuvalu’s newly elected officials are in the process of choosing who will become prime minister. With the exception of Mr. Paeniu, most of the leading candidates have publicly rejected the idea of switching relations with China. Opposition leader Enele Sopoaga, who retained his seat in parliament, said in December that he would “never” side with China.
According to Andrew Lin, Taiwan’s ambassador to Tuvalu, Taiwan provides about $12 million in annual direct budget support to Tuvalu, as well as project funding, including about $10 million for the construction of a new national parliament building. There is.
Meanwhile, China has been targeting Tuvaluan officials.
Simon Corfe, an MP who was re-elected last week, said he was approached by Chinese officials during a 2022 visit to Fiji, which has diplomatic relations with the Chinese government, while he was Tuvalu’s foreign minister. Officials offered to meet with the Chinese ambassador, but Kofe declined. “If it happened to me, it’s definitely happened to other people,” Kofe said.
Taiwan’s other Pacific allies, Palau and the Marshall Islands, have security agreements with the United States called the Compact of Free Association, so a switch is unlikely.
Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine said her country still has strong ties with Taiwan and is not under pressure from China to make the switch “at this time.”
But Whipps said Palau’s close relationship with the United States makes it a target for China: “They are very interested in upending a compact country.”
Whipps said Palau will not make the switch while he is president. But he feared what would happen if someone else was elected.
“We all know that if we cut ties with Taiwan, we’re just giving China the green light to take over Taiwan,” he said. “For a small island like ours, that’s a little scary.”
Mr. Miller reported from Sydney. Kuo and Chen reported from Taipei, Taiwan.