Editor’s note: Sign up for CNN’s “while in china” newsletter, which explores what you need to know about the rise of China and its impact on the world.
(CNN) – When Xi Jinping appointed General Donggun as China’s defense minister last week, it was the first time a naval officer had been elevated to the post, and analysts said it clearly signaled the Chinese leader’s priorities. Taiwan is at the top of the list.
According to reports in Chinese newspapers, Dong’s experience as both a commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and operational missions in the Chinese military’s Eastern and Southern Theater Commands has led him to the post of defense minister with “precedent precedent.” It is said that he has given him a unique background. Maritime Research Institute (CMSI) at the U.S. Naval War College, Rhode Island.
CMSI analysts Andrew Erickson and Christopher Sherman said in a report that his resume is “increasingly applicable to disputed sovereignty claims in the East China Sea and South China Sea” “Reflects the serious focus of our joint and naval forces in the United States. Nothing is more important than Taiwan.”
Karl Schuster, former director of operations at the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Information Center, said Dong was an “international leader in two theaters that were at the forefront of leader Xi Jinping’s most aggressive assertion of China’s territorial claims.” “We have joint and extensive naval experience.” ”
Mr. Xi, who has made governing Taiwan the cornerstone of his broader goal of “resurrecting” China to global power and status, said last month that “unification” of Taiwan and China was “inevitable.”
The Chinese Communist Party claims Taiwan as its own territory, even though it has never ruled it. Chinese officials have said they aim for peaceful “unification” but have not ruled out using force to seize control of the islands.
China’s rare nighttime show of force near Taiwan
Under the Xi administration, the Chinese military has increased diplomatic, economic, and military pressure on Taiwan.
Chinese warplanes now frequently fly over Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and the unofficial but until recently mostly observed “middle line” that runs through the Taiwan Strait.
Crossing of the median line by Chinese warships has become quite frequent.
Beijing is also engaged in other sovereignty disputes, with Japan over Qianzuru Island (which China calls Diaoyu Islands) in the East China Sea, and with minority governments over disputed reefs, shoals and islands in the South China Sea over nearly all of its territory. are fighting. The Chinese government claims it as its own territory.
While the post of China’s defense minister is largely a ceremonial role, serving as the public face of military diplomacy with other countries, Dong said he would use his experience to “engage in strong engagement with foreign counterparts.” “interlocutor,” Erickson and Sherman said.
Tensions are rising across the region, making diplomacy more important than ever amid hardening attitudes and unpredictable events.
Taiwan’s presidential election this month could have a major impact on relations between Taiwan and China, as well as tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
In the South China Sea, the Chinese Coast Guard has increasingly engaged in aggressive encounters with Philippine vessels attempting to resupply Philippine military outposts at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.
And the Senkaku Islands, which are administered by Japan but claimed by China, receive more than 100 Chinese Coast Guard and other vessels each month, according to statistics provided by Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in December. It is within Japan’s contiguous zone around the Senkaku Islands.
Meanwhile, late last year, the Chinese government restarted important military communications lines with Washington that had been suspended following then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022.
Since the Philippines and Japan are both allies under the U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty, and the U.S. has an obligation to assist Taiwan in its self-defense, Dong will engage in dialogue with the U.S. side to avoid military escalation in all three areas. capacity could be critical to peace.
But if hostilities erupt, Mr. Dong could become a key adviser to President Xi, analysts said.
“One of the PLA’s most experienced joint commanders, Admiral Dong has deep expertise at the operational level of war,” Erickson and Sherman wrote.
Mr. Schuster noted Mr. Dong’s years of experience in the Southern Theater, encompassing the South China Sea, including serving as deputy commander of all PLA forces in the Southern Theater Command and commander of the PLA Navy unit there. are doing.
Schuster said he was also deputy commander of the East Sea Fleet, which operates in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
This shows that Dong embodies “Xi’s prioritization of experience that may be important to his plans regarding the South China Sea and Taiwan,” Schuster said.
And Mr. Dong, whom Mr. Xi appointed last week, is not the only indicator of the Chinese leader’s priorities, analysts said.
Days before promoting Dong to defense minister, Mr. Xi appointed Admiral Hu Zhongming as commander-in-chief of the People’s Liberation Army Navy.
Hu is a career submarine officer with experience operating and commanding in the South China Sea, and analysts believe he is a wise choice for the role.
Submarines are one of the key areas where the People’s Liberation Army Navy is widely considered to be behind a potential adversary, the US Navy.
Chinese submarines are generally considered to be louder and easier to track than American submarines.
“The United States continues to dominate undersea warfare,” Paul Dibb, emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, said on the Australian Strategic Policy Institute website in December.
“For example, China’s strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs) are highly vulnerable to U.S. attack submarines (SSNs) and therefore do not provide the Chinese government with a reliable nuclear secondary strike force,” he said. wrote.
Schuster said China is also considered to be lagging behind the United States in anti-submarine warfare, but has invested in improvements in recent years.
Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy at King’s College in London, said Hu appears to be the best person to improve the People’s Liberation Army’s submarine force.
“As a submariner with extensive experience in risk management and training improvement, Admiral Hu will work to ensure that China’s most important strategic capabilities reach the highest standards,” Patalano said.
According to reports in state-run Chinese media, President Hu’s leadership experience includes two instances in which he is credited with averting potentially catastrophic situations, which led to This led to the development of training procedures.
Analysts highlighted Hu’s experience as a theater commander overseeing PLA forces across a wide region.
“Having experience with multiple fleets, Admiral Hu is able to gain unique insight into the strengths and weaknesses of each fleet, thereby not only providing organizational and training improvements to ensure the readiness of the Chinese Navy. We will be able to provide uniquely tailored guidance to improve the operations and tactics of the Chinese Navy,” Sherman and Erickson said. I have written.
Mr. Xi held two positions within China’s military hierarchy, and these appointments came after nine military officials were removed from positions in China’s rubber-stamp legislature, the National People’s Congress. This is an unprecedented move that suggests widespread purges of the People’s Liberation Army.
And analysts noted that before Dong’s appointment, the defense minister’s post had been vacant for two months, after Lee Shang-fu resigned without explanation after a long absence from public life.
The dismissal of nine military officials in particular has fueled speculation about their alleged involvement in corruption, as Mr. Xi has spent a decade cracking down on corruption in China’s military ranks.
Although charges have not been announced, the affiliations of the nine fired officials provide clues about what is happening in China.
Only one of the nine was a former Navy officer. Most were members of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, which is responsible for China’s ground-based nuclear and conventional missiles.
Patalano said the path is clear in the Chinese Communist Party’s tightly controlled hierarchy.
“The appointment of two naval officers to these important positions, especially the Minister of Defense, strongly suggests two things: one, the navy is seen as Xi Jinping’s most loyal service; It is also a combination of technical and professional knowledge that China aims to continue to project power in its immediate vicinity.