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CNN
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As Russia’s invasion enters its third year and Ukraine scrambles to maintain international support, the leader has made it clear that one of the countries he wants to join in promoting peace is China.
Gradually increasing pressure on China, Moscow’s most powerful political ally, was announced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and other officials at a gathering of world elites in Davos, Switzerland this week. This has emerged as an important issue.
Zelenskiy told reporters that he “strongly hopes that China will be involved” in the Ukraine peace plan. Foreign Minister Zelenskiy said his country wants more contacts with China “at all levels,” according to Interfax Ukraine news agency, but Zelenskiy’s chief of staff said the wartime leader was on the sidelines of a rally. He also left the door open for talks with top Chinese representatives.
However, Chinese Premier Li Qiang appeared to leave the World Economic Forum earlier this week without meeting President Zelensky, and in a roughly 25-minute speech that focused on reassuring the audience about China’s economic slump, he did not directly address the conflict. Didn’t mention it.
Even as Chinese officials stepped up efforts last year to promote China as a potential peace broker in the war, analysts say China is now leveraging its deep and growing relationship with Russia to end the war. It is difficult to believe that now is the time to step up efforts to move towards the future. In Ukrainian conditions.
“China believes it is already playing an important role in moving towards peace. China’s version of peace is just not what President Zelenskyy wants,” said the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center’s China said Yoon Seung, program director.
Last year, Beijing sent special envoys to both Kiev and Moscow after Chinese leader Xi Jinping met Zelenskiy for the first time some 14 months after the war began. The country also announced its own peace proposal, which, contrary to Ukraine’s demands, calls for a ceasefire without the prior withdrawal of Russian troops illegally occupying Ukrainian territory.
Now, the latest events at Davos highlight China’s wait-and-see attitude as it seeks to make further progress toward ending the war, analysts say, with the fighting still at a stalemate and both sides Neither shows any signs of backing down. A large-scale conflict in the Middle East is attracting worldwide attention.
“China may have wanted mediation before because it didn’t want to lose too badly to Russia. But now it’s less worried on that front…China is worried about how the battlefield will unfold. “There is a growing willingness to see how things develop, and that will be the basis for any (peace) negotiations,” Sun said.
“Now, with the United States preoccupied with Gaza and Ukraine with more limited resources available, things are shifting in Russia’s favor. There is even less reason to go ahead with it,” she said.
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While Premier Li focused on the economy in Davos, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi continued to focus on Gaza from earlier this week.
Foreign Minister Wang issued a joint statement with the Arab League in Cairo as part of his first annual African trip of the year, calling for an “immediate and comprehensive ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip to end more than three months of war. A conflict that has been going on since the beginning.
Wang also said China called for a “larger, more authoritative and more effective international peace conference” and a concrete timeline for implementing a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. Stated.
It is unclear how much influence China has in the region to play a strong role in supporting such efforts, but an independent Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel is consistent with Beijing’s longstanding foreign policy. ing. It was one of the first countries to recognize Palestine as a sovereign state in the late 1980s, and has long advocated a two-state solution.
But analysts say the conflict is also an opportunity for Mr. Xi to seek to position China as an alternative international leader to the United States, especially in the Global South, and to recognize that U.S. policies are disrupting global stability. They also point out that they are inciting this.
Alex Gabu, director of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center in Berlin, said: “A lot of[global]frustration and anger is being transferred to the Gaza conflict…and China is positioning itself as a permanent diplomatic power.” That’s the point we’re trying to establish.”
“When it comes to the Gaza war, the majority of countries in the Global South are strongly and strongly opposed to what Israel is doing…In this conflict, they portray themselves as agents of peace and a negotiated solution. “There is more sympathy (in the Global South)…unlike the Ukraine war, most countries are sitting on the fence, and only the West is so united.” he said.
Whether Beijing is interested in joining a growing number of countries, including those from the Global South, who are willing to sit at the table with Ukraine and hear its peace terms will be determined at an upcoming meeting. It was announced on Monday that it would be put to the test at a peace summit.
The meeting, which Switzerland said it would host behind closed doors at the request of President Zelenskiy, is expected to see world leaders discuss how to end the conflict as it enters its third year. It is. President Zelenskiy described it as an event in which “all countries that respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity are welcome to participate.”
Asked earlier this week whether an invitation to Beijing had been made, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to give a direct answer, saying China’s position was “centered on promoting peace negotiations,” adding, “China’s position is centered on promoting peace negotiations.” He said he supports all efforts.
Analysts say this is unlikely to lead to high-level participation in talks where Ukraine’s views, rather than Russia’s, will be the starting point.
Russia has not been represented in any of the four closed-door international peace talks held so far, even though any peace agreement requires its participation. Of these three of her meetings, China attended only one of her meetings hosted by Saudi Arabia, an increasingly close strategic partner.
Beijing views Russia as an important partner in balancing the hostile West, and the two countries have continued to strengthen security, diplomatic, and economic ties since Russia launched a full-scale invasion. .
“It doesn’t matter what happens at the peace conference unless Russia accepts it. China will not support the terms that Russia opposes,” Sun said in Washington. “Any attempt to draw China into such an environment will fail because China also understands the point of view of participating in such a meeting.”
For now, China may remain on the sidelines until it feels there is a time for compromise between Kiev and Moscow in which it could seek to strengthen its role.
However, when it comes to how Beijing maneuvers towards peace-broking in the Gaza Strip, China probably does not yet see itself seizing the opportunity to “present itself as a conflict mediator.” Mr. Sun says that this may be the case. “So there’s a lot more going on.”
CNN Radina Zhigova in London and Svitlana Vlasova in Kyiv contributed to reporting.