In an open letter posted on his website in December, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates said that while all levels of government participate in voting and that annual elections are important, “2024 “The sheer number of people who will vote in 2020 means that the outcome will be greatly influenced.” It has a huge impact on the future of our world. ”
It’s not just the numbers that make the 2024 election so important. The US presidential election is held in the same year as leadership elections in major countries such as India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom.
Voters in the 27 European Union member states will also decide who will be represented in the European Parliament.
Even Russia, China’s “unrestricted” partner, plans to hold a presidential election in March, albeit nominally.
The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Support, an intergovernmental watchdog based in Sweden, says in its annual report that half of the world will see democratic decline in 2022, marking the sixth consecutive year. The number of decreases exceeded the number of increases.”
Analysts said the election results would highlight the health of democracies around the world. The vote will also change or strengthen the direction of current economic, political, and geopolitical policies in the context of great power competition between the United States and China.
Neil Thomas of the Asia Social Policy Research Institute’s China Center said the 2024 election “could have a significant impact on the shape of international geopolitics for many years.”
China will be raised as a “major foreign policy issue” in many of these countries, especially the United States, he said.
Taiwan
The first 2024 general elections, closely watched by supporters of democracy and the liberal world order, will be held in Taiwan, an autonomous island where the Chinese government will eventually seize rebel provinces by force, if necessary, from the mainland. It is a self-governing island that is expected to be unified with Japan.
The January 13 election campaign between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which vocally criticizes Beijing, and the pro-mainland Kuomintang Party will bring to light how much democracy remains when a determined people is allowed real choice even under intense external pressure. “It will be a valuable demonstration of how highly regarded it is,” Guardian columnist Simon Tisdall wrote last month.
Analysts said the outcome in Taiwan would set the broader picture for U.S.-China relations as well as cross-strait relations.
If the Democratic Progressive Party wins, China is likely to retaliate through “economic coercion and military intimidation,” threatening to undermine the “stability” in U.S.-China relations that Biden appeared to have achieved in his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November. Mr. Thomas argued that this could confuse the
Brunswick, a global advisory firm, said the White House will try to avoid tensions in East Asia ahead of the U.S. presidential election, but the bilateral relationship with China will be affected by “some Republicans encouraging Republican elements in the ruling Democratic Party.” “It could get even worse,” he predicted. He takes more pro-independence positions as a campaign tactic. ”
Most countries, including the United States, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state.
Taiwan general election: Chinese government accuses Democratic Progressive Party of “hyping” the PLA threat to win votes
Taiwan general election: Chinese government accuses Democratic Progressive Party of “hyping” the PLA threat to win votes
A Mai Formosa opinion poll released on December 26 showed Democratic Progressive Party candidate William Lai Chinte leading with 40%. Kuomintang candidate Hou Yuxi maintained second place with 28.9% of the vote, with an 11-point gap between the top two candidates, the largest to date. Ke Wen-ji of the emerging Taiwan People’s Party maintained third place with 17.6%.
Indonesia
Another important election in the region is the Indonesian election on February 14th. Since 2020, the resource-rich archipelago has banned the export of raw nickel, which is used to make rechargeable batteries.
Indonesia’s embargo has spurred Chinese investment in the country’s processing facilities, even as Jakarta has also signaled its intention to sign a major minerals deal with the US.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo will retire after serving two five-year terms, but is expected to remain an influential politician.
The presidential election was a three-way race between Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.
Mr Brunswick’s 2024 election report said Indonesia’s relations with major powers should remain “good balance”, but wondered whether Mr Widodo’s successor would “pursue further protectionist measures” regarding natural resources. I guess we don’t know yet.
Gibran battles rival over new capital and economic plans at Indonesian vice-presidential debate
Gibran battles rival over new capital and economic plans at Indonesian vice-presidential debate
India
Voters in India, which calls itself the world’s largest democracy and touts itself as the next global manufacturing hub to rival China, will head to the polls from April 1 to May 31.
The country, a key US ally in the region, has been ruled by Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi since 2014.
Despite a patchy record on human rights and press freedom, Mr. Modi is expected to easily win a third term given his popularity and the country’s strong economic performance.
Flint Global said the third-term Modi government will continue to “pursue expanding India’s influence internationally” and “present itself as a leader in the developing world.”
“Tensions between India and China are likely to rise further, and relations between India and the United States will evolve,” the report concluded.
However, if former President Donald Trump is re-elected in November, the deepening of US-India ties under US President Joe Biden could be hampered. He has already vowed to impose additional tariffs on Indian goods if he comes to power again.
India’s Bharatiya Janata Party wins overwhelming state polls, putting it on track to stay in power for another five years
India’s Bharatiya Janata Party wins overwhelming state polls, putting it on track to stay in power for another five years
At the same time, New Delhi will continue to pursue what it calls “mutually beneficial strategic convergence on geopolitical interests” with Beijing’s ally Moscow.
Mexico
On June 2, Mexico, a U.S. favorite for the so-called reshoring industry away from China, is likely to elect its first female president.
Claudia Sheinbaum, a candidate for the ruling National Renewal Movement party, is a disciple of President Andres Manuel López Obrador and served as mayor of Mexico City from 2018 to June.
She will face former senator Xochitl Gálvez of the Mexican opposition coalition Canton Front. It is not the first time a woman has run for president, but with both major political factions nominating women, it is seen as a given that a woman will become Mexico’s next leader.
Ryan Berg of the Center for Strategic and International Studies pointed out that Mexico and the United States both hold presidential elections in the same year only once every 12 years, because Mexico’s president only serves a six-year term.
“Our two countries have much in common through decades of integration, but they also have a long history of exploiting each other for electoral gain,” he wrote in Foreign Policy magazine.
And given issues like the U.S. fentanyl epidemic and the migrant crisis at the Mexico-U.S. border, “it is inevitable that each country’s role in each other’s domestic politics will contribute to heightened tensions” this year.
China sees great potential and room for growth in relations with Mexico – Wang Yi
China sees great potential and room for growth in relations with Mexico – Wang Yi
Despite friction, Mexico overtook China in 2023 to become the United States’ largest trading partner. ‘Greenfield’ foreign direct investment, or companies setting up new businesses in foreign countries, will reach a record high of US$40 billion in 2022, it announced. FDI intelligence. Moreover, this figure increased by 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2023 as global restructuring moved supply chains away from China.
Regardless of the outcome of the election, S&P Global Market Intelligence’s José Enrique Sevilla Mechip says the Mexican government’s stance on nearshoring remains “strong, with both presidential candidates vowing to attract more investment.” “It will continue to improve,” he said.
european union
Major political changes are expected in Europe following the European Parliament elections to be held from June 6th to 9th, just a few days apart.
The new composition of the parliament will lead to the replacement of existing members, while the top positions in the European Commission and European Council will also be targeted.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen may be reappointed, but there will be a new leader at the European Council, which is responsible for defining political priorities for the EU as a whole. Council President Charles Michel has already served two consecutive terms and will be handed over to his successor in November.
According to Flint Global, “economic security and strategic autonomy remain key political objectives” in Europe in response to competition from the United States and China, and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the U.S. election “continues to drive this trend.” It will strengthen the
America
In the United States, former president Donald Trump, who is facing criminal charges for allegedly trying to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 election he lost to Joe Biden, remains the leading candidate for the Republican nomination.
And President Biden, the Democratic leader, remains unpopular due to his age of 81 and bleak public opinion on the economy. However, the rematch between Trump and Biden is likely to take place 11 months later, on November 5th.
What are President Trump’s challenges for a second term? Revenge, trade wars, and mass deportations
What are President Trump’s challenges for a second term? Revenge, trade wars, and mass deportations
Analysts said Trump’s victory would not be good for democracy or for U.S. relations with China and beyond.
Flint Global, an international advisory firm, said in its 2024 political overview that “Donald Trump’s victory would result in significant global damage, as it could roll back Biden’s key reforms, including anti-inflation laws.” “It will create uncertainty.”
The report added that reversing Biden’s policies would “weaken” Western unity and make U.S. policy on issues such as the Middle East and the war in Ukraine much harder to predict.
After taking office in 2021, Biden declared “America is back” on the world stage. His support for Ukraine in the war against Russia and patchwork alliances in Asia demonstrated his determination to maintain America’s global leadership. Trump’s return could reverse this trend and reignite the “Leave America” campaign he has come to embody.
The Economist’s Tom Standage discusses the possibility of President Trump’s second term as president, saying that returning an “election denier” to the White House would “further worsen” America’s democratic credentials globally. ” he told CNN.
Thomas pointed out that President Trump has also not made his position on Taiwan very clear.
“When Trump was president, he indicated that he did not consider Taiwan a major priority. But it remains to be seen how a re-elected Trump would respond to China’s hardline stance on Taiwan.” .
“This creates further uncertainty about the future of U.S.-China relations and cross-strait tensions.”