Before Taiwanese voters go to the polls on Saturday, the Chinese Communist Party ensured Taiwanese voters knew their preferred outcome and called on them to make the “right choice” between peace and war, threatening the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Chingde. denounced them as separatists. .
However, now that Mr. Lai has been elected president, the Chinese government has toned down its rhetoric. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office commented on Lai’s victory with 40% of the vote and the loss of the Democratic Progressive Party’s legislative majority, saying that this result meant that “the Democratic Progressive Party can never represent Taiwan’s mainstream public opinion.” He said it shows.
In the complex world of cross-strait relations, Beijing’s response could be interpreted as good news.
Many analysts attribute this reaction to Beijing’s refusal to engage because the Democratic Progressive Party considers Taiwan to be an independent country separate from Taiwan, despite the party winning an unprecedented third term in power. He sees this as evidence that he may be taking comfort in the fact that voters’ support for his party is plummeting. China. Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has threatened to attack Taipei if it resists unification indefinitely.
” [TAO] statement aligns lines [Chinese leader] “Xi Jinping blamed Taiwan, claiming that it had succeeded in forcing the Democratic Progressive Party from the role of a majority government to the role of a minority government,” said Lai Yinhung, chairman of the Prospect Foundation, a government-backed think tank in Taipei.
“For the mainland, even if the Democratic Progressive Party has to win, this is not such a dire situation,” said Carla Freeman, senior China program expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace. [Beijing] In fact, he may be feeling good about Rai’s low vote share in the election, and he may also be happy that the government is divided and he has taken such a strong stance in parliament. unknown. [opposition] National Party. ” The Chinese government maintains contacts with the Kuomintang, which claims Taiwan belongs to the larger Chinese nation, but disputes over which nation has the right to rule the country. We have different opinions with the Chinese government.
Freeman said China’s response to the Democratic Progressive Party’s victory could be a more coordinated approach toward Taiwan, making China less likely to take military action against the island.
Although China’s reaction to the election results was muted and Taiwan’s government and experts predict that a Chinese attack is unlikely in the coming years, experts believe Beijing is increasing pressure on the country. I see it as merciless.
Analysts say the chances of dialogue with the Democratic Progressive Party government are even lower than under incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, as Lai’s government is publicly labeled as a minority group that does not represent the Taiwanese people. . “They didn’t wait for the inaugural address to see if it was acceptable to them,” said Lai of the Prospect Foundation.
Instead, exchanges are expected to increase between Chinese officials and Taiwan’s new members of parliament. The Democratic Progressive Party’s seats in the 113-member parliament decreased from 61 to 51, and the Kuomintang increased its number from 38 to 52.
The balance in Congress is between two KMT-leaning independents and eight seats from the Taiwan People’s Party, an upstart faction that ran on an opposition agenda but is willing to work with either major party on certain issues. occupied.
One decisive moment will be the parliamentary speaker election in early February.
The KMT wants Han Yu, a populist pro-China politician who lost to Tsai in the last presidential election, to become chair.
Although the position is not particularly powerful, he is also the director of the Taiwan Democracy Foundation, a state-backed non-profit organization, and given Taipei’s interactions with Western democracies, both It has the potential to play an outsized role in shore relations. These countries have diplomatic relations with China, including on issues they consider too sensitive or political to discuss at the government level.
Democratic Progressive Party politicians said that if control of the TFD were transferred to the opposition, its activities could involve a fundamental shift from outreach to other democracies to dialogue with China. .
Under Ma Ying-jeou, the last Kuomintang president, a large portion of the TFD budget was spent on visits to China by local government officials and entertainment for Chinese officials.
Increasing contact with more Taiwanese lawmakers fits into Beijing’s strategy, which Mr. Xi has dubbed “integrated development.”
Beijing’s TAO said on Saturday that China “continues to cooperate with relevant political parties, organizations and people from all walks of life in Taiwan to promote cross-strait exchanges, deepen integrated development, jointly promote Chinese culture, and promote cross-strait peaceful development.” I will continue to do so.” We will strengthen relations and advance the cause of national reunification. ”
In the face of President Xi’s more assertive stance, Congress will also play a larger role in other policy areas key to strengthening Taiwan’s security.
Both the KMT and TPP have expressed support for further increases in defense spending, but KMT politicians are at odds with the Democratic Progressive Party over the details of military strategy and which weapons to procure from the United States.
“Mr. Lai won’t be able to do many new things without support from either of the two opposition parties,” said Nathan Bateau, a political scientist at Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s top research institute.
“The big issue that everyone is talking about is arms procurement. But if the opposition pursues it further and vetoes the weapons purchase, then the average voter doesn’t understand the nuances of weapons or military strategy. We’re going to have to make a public case.”
Twenty years ago, during the previous minority government of the Democratic Progressive Party, the Kuomintang completely blocked funding for weapons purchases. But analysts say that is unlikely to happen this time, as China’s military has increased significantly since then and the Taiwanese public perceives a more serious threat.
Despite the constraints on Lai, many China observers are under no illusions that this signals a long-term decline in support for the Democratic Progressive Party.
Wang Yiwei, an international relations scholar at Renmin University in Beijing, said the Democratic Progressive Party’s victory was not surprising for China, as it has gradually become more deeply integrated into Taiwanese politics. He called this the “Liberal Democratic Party” of the Democratic Party. This is a reference to Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which has been in power for all but six years since 1955.
Wang said that while Lai may occasionally cross red lines, such as changing Taiwan’s constitution or official name, the Chinese government did not expect him to do so.
Unless Mr. Lai takes steps toward formal independence, “Taiwan’s status quo will remain in place until there is a change of power between China and the United States,” he said.