What is China’s interest in Myanmar’s civil war?

In Myanmar, a brief ceasefire between a powerful coalition of ethnic armed groups and the ruling military government appears to have been broken just hours after it was negotiated at China’s request.

The Alliance of Three Brothers, one of the factions fighting in a coordinated armed struggle against the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military junta), reached a ceasefire on Friday in Kunming, China’s provincial capital, about 400 miles from the country’s border with China in northeastern Myanmar. Agreed. The ceasefire clause appears to be limited to Shan State, which borders China, and is aimed at protecting Chinese interests and civilians in the region.

But by Friday, the military had abandoned the agreement, according to a statement from the Ta’an National Liberation Army (TNLA), one of the ethnic armed groups along with the Arakan Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. Brotherhood Alliance. The Irrawaddy and local Burmese media reported that the junta attacked multiple strongholds in northern Shan State on Friday and Saturday. Vox cannot independently verify that claim.

A ceasefire was then held multiple meetings Between the Tatmadaw and the Three Brothers Alliance. Both countries reportedly abandoned a previous ceasefire agreement negotiated last month, and some observers did not expect the current agreement to hold.

“The three parties, the three ethnic armed groups on the border, actually had no intention of participating in these talks, and they really only did so because of very strong pressure from China,” said U.S. Institute of Science Burma Program Country Director. Jason Tower said. It’s peaceful, he told Vox. “And I think the ceasefire was doomed to fail from the beginning, given that there was no serious intention on the part of each party to have any kind of deeper dialogue about this situation.”

However, the ceasefire did not extend to other parts of Myanmar, despite the involvement of vital armed groups. There, there are ethnic armed groups and the People’s Defense Forces, or PDF, an armed group that developed after the 2021 coup that returned the military junta to power. The Alliance of Three Brothers continues Operation 1027, an offensive against the Tatmadaw that began on October 27 last year.

“I don’t really see this because other groups see this as a sense of betrayal, but I think it’s important to understand that China’s efforts in furthering its goal of eradicating military dictatorships and eradicating military dictatorships.” “It’s causing further frustration with China because it sees it increasingly as an obstacle to pushing the military out of the political space,” Tower said.

There’s no going back to the status quo

For most of its history as an independent state, Myanmar has been in a state of prolonged civil war and military rule with little interruption. The country began democratic reforms in the 2020s and held elections in 2015 and 2020, which the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) won. The military, also known as Sit That or the State Executive Council (SAC), detained President Win Myint, democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi and other NLD party members on the day the new parliament was scheduled to meet. . After the election, the president took office for the first time in February 2021. Former military officer Myint Swe became acting president, declaring a state of emergency and transferring control of the country to the military.

Armed ethnic groups are nothing new in Myanmar. Myanmar is a highly ethnically diverse country, but the Bamar majority has always enjoyed a privileged position in society, including in the military and government. Meanwhile, smaller ethnic groups such as the Shan, Karen, and Rakhine people have historically faced severe discrimination, both under British colonial rule and military dictatorship. These ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have been fighting the government for years, often to increase autonomy for their regions and ethnic groups.

Myanmar has been mired in a deadly civil war since the 2021 coup. Although the conflict began with peaceful protests against the military dictatorship, the junta’s violent crackdown on protesters eventually led to the creation of the PDF and an armed rebellion. In return, the military used heavy firepower, including mortars, mines, and missiles, against armed groups and civilians. More than 6,000 civilians were killed in fighting between February 2021 and September 2022, according to the Oslo Peace Research Institute. According to the United Nations, as of October 2, nearly 2 million people were internally displaced. These numbers have only increased since the attacks of 1027.

Operation 1027 likely took several months to plan and demonstrated excellent coordination between the Alliance, other ethnic armed groups, and the PDF. This is a new phase in the ongoing battle against the military leadership, experts told Box.

“While this level of cooperation is not entirely unprecedented, the scale of the operation and what they accomplished is something we have never seen before,” said an independent analyst based in Thailand. said David Matheson. he told Vox in November. “I think this shows a combination of long-term cooperation between the three main groups,” namely the Three Brothers Alliance, which has been working together in some form since 2009, and others, such as Bamar People’s Liberation, more recently. I think it shows cooperation with ethnic armed organizations. Army, Matheson said.

What is China’s role in Myanmar’s civil war?

China is increasingly concerned about so-called “pig slaughter” schemes running rampant in its border areas, including northern Shan State. The illegal economy is run by Chinese criminal organizations and targets Chinese workers, who are lured to Southeast Asia with the promise of jobs but end up being kidnapped and sent to remote locations in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos. They will be taken away and used as slaves. There, they are forced to lure people all over the world into relationships with them, with the ultimate goal of stealing money through cryptocurrency scams. In recent months, China has increased pressure on both the EAO and the junta to track down the perpetrators and hand them over to China.

But Shan state relies on its border with China for access to weapons, medical care and currency, so it is critical to suppressing the resistance movement, Tower said. Additionally, Thiha Wint Aung, an independent analyst from Myanmar, told Vox that “gaining control of northern Shan State would mean an increase in territory in which they can operate unhindered. “I will.” Aoun said Lashio and Muse, key trading hubs with China, remain under military control but are besieged by resistance forces.

But Tower said Shan state and Myanmar are also of strategic importance to China, which has been working with the military to secure its interests in the region for the past 20 years. “[China] “China is working closely with the Myanmar military to build all the infrastructure to build a multibillion-dollar pipeline that will be the only source of piped natural gas to China’s southwestern province.” Tower told Box. “And the Myanmar military has been, until recently, the main party providing that security.”

China also relies on Myanmar for access to the Strait of Malacca, a key trade route linking China and other Asian countries through the Indian Ocean to Africa, Europe and the Middle East. This is especially important when it comes to China’s energy supplies, as Darshana Barua, director of the Indian Ocean Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explained in April testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Indo-Pacific. “Nine out of China’s top 10 crude oil suppliers transit through the Indian Ocean,” Barua said in his testimony.

China has worked with both the EAO and the military, but is likely looking to the Tatmadaw to protect its interests despite its weakening power, economic incompetence, and involvement in criminal activities. said Tower. “I think [China’s] The end result would be to prioritize a weak military that is highly dependent on China and where China could cooperate with several other countries. [EAOs] this thing [trusts] “This is to infiltrate border areas, secure their interests, and ultimately further their interests in the Indian Ocean region,” he told Box.

Aoun said that even if China negotiates a future ceasefire, it is unlikely to last long and violence will continue in Myanmar for some time. “Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) are acutely aware that the territory they have acquired will never be peaceful as long as military rule continues in Myanmar’s capital, Naypyitaw.”