Why China, Asia’s only permanent member of the UN Security Council, wants to maintain the status quo

India is aiming to secure a seat at the table with the Permanent Five (P5) countries: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States.

These five countries represent the victors of World War II, and with Russia currently supporting India’s participation, China is the only one opposed to accepting the South Asian giant.

They also say that any other efforts to add permanent members to the Security Council appear wishful thinking and are hampered by a number of challenges, including the difficulties of amending the UN Charter.

Vinay Kaula, an assistant professor at India’s Sardar Patel College of Police, Security and Criminal Justice, said China is not influenced by Russia’s consistent support for India and that the Security Council has the potential to add India to the group. He said he was resisting the reorganization. .

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US participates in high-altitude military exercises with India near Himalayan border with China

US participates in high-altitude military exercises with India near Himalayan border with China

“China’s hostility toward India is reflected in this discussion,” he said. “As China is the only Asian power represented on the UN Security Council, it does not want other Asian countries to share this privilege.”

Relations between China and India have deteriorated in recent years as border tensions between the two countries escalate. Both Asian powers are competing to represent the developing world.

Kaura said Beijing’s opposition is also evident in its strategy to reduce and limit India’s strategic influence at both regional and global levels.

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, said last year that the reforms should “increase the representation and voice of developing countries and provide more opportunities for more small and medium-sized countries to participate in Council decision-making.” .

In addition to India, Brazil, Japan, and Germany are also aiming to become permanent members of the UN body.

But Richard Gowan, head of the United Nations think tank International Crisis Group, said India was the “hardest advocate” of parliamentary reform.

“[India] “We are adamant that we should have a permanent member and we will not compromise on this,” he said.

“How can we talk about it as a major organ of the global organization when the entire continents of Africa and Latin America are ignored? The most populous country and the largest democracy is a permanent “How can you claim to represent the world if you are not a member of the council?” he said.

Gowan said Russia’s growing support for India’s bid may stem from Russia’s desire to prevent U.S. allies such as Japan and Germany from gaining more power in international organizations. Ta.

But he suspected that even Moscow thought reform was unlikely. “So this is, in a sense, another example of cheap political signaling for UN reform,” he said.

Regarding China, Gowan said that Japan gaining a permanent seat on the Security Council would be an “absolute red line” and that this scenario would “really concern” Beijing. .

“Clearly, China remains the only Asian power with a permanent seat and has an interest in excluding India as well.”

The P5 members of the Security Council have the power to veto UN resolutions, and the other 10 members are elected on a rotating basis.

Gowan said China had previously used interdiction power to support Pakistan over the Kashmir dispute with India. “if [China] “If we have to deal with India as an equal at the United Nations, India’s influence in Asia-related diplomacy will decline.”

Sardar Patel University’s Khawla said China’s policy is to present itself as a defender of the Global South, and Beijing does not believe that opposition to India contradicts demands for Security Council reform. No, he added.

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United Nations predicts India will overtake China to become the world’s most populous country in 2023

United Nations predicts India will overtake China to become the world’s most populous country in 2023

He suggested that China would likely be keen on a limited expansion in which additional permanent members would not have the veto powers currently exercised by P5 members.

Gowan said China would be willing to talk about giving developing countries more powers in the Security Council in “general terms,” ​​but it remains to be seen whether Beijing will invest political capital in specific reform models. Stated.

Noting that Africa is seeking two permanent seats on the Security Council, he said, “The Chinese government is using this language to satisfy the United Nations group of African countries, which it wants to foster as a friendly political bloc.” I’m using some of it,” he said.

Russia’s aid to India also comes amid growing calls for changes to the way the United Nations Security Council operates.

“The urge for reform is understandable,” said Stewart Patrick, director of the World Order and Institutions Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

He wrote in a paper published in June by the Washington-based think tank that the five-member permanent membership was first introduced in 1945, but nearly 80 years later, major countries such as India and Brazil He said that this has not changed even now that the company has become popular.

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The P5’s veto power, allowing each country to unilaterally block Security Council resolutions that are inconsistent with its national interests, has further fueled member states’ dissatisfaction.

“The result is frequent paralysis of Congress, which is exacerbated by deepening geopolitical tensions between Western democracies and authoritarian China and Russia,” Patrick added.

“For a growing number of the world’s governments and peoples, today’s Council is reckless and unjust, dominated by irresponsible and unrepresentative forces more interested in abusing their position than protecting peace. .”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres had previously suggested that it was time to reform the Security Council to bring it in line with “the realities of today’s world”, but apart from that, countries like India The decision to join should be made by members of the UN Security Council, he said.

Gowan of the International Crisis Group said Russia’s war in Ukraine and the development of conflicts in the Middle East are adding to the sense of urgency for Security Council reform.

He said UN member states were particularly “angry” about Russia’s use of its veto on Ukraine and the US’ use of its veto on Gaza.

Last year, Russia blocked a Security Council resolution that said Ukraine’s attempt to annex four regions was an illegal act that altered Ukraine’s borders and posed a “threat to international peace and security.”

In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for the removal of Russia’s veto power, saying it rendered international organizations “powerless.”

More recently, Washington last month vetoed a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.

“The Security Council has also struggled to respond to other crises, such as the wars in Sudan and Myanmar, and there is a sense that the United Nations is losing credibility as great power tensions rise,” Gowan added. .

Caula said that even though the world has changed dramatically since 1945, and countries such as Brazil, Japan and Germany have grown politically and economically powerful, the Security Council remains He pointed out that the composition of the system has not changed.

“Most countries believe that the performance and legitimacy of the UN Security Council has deteriorated. And geopolitical tensions between liberal democracies and authoritarian regimes have also deepened.” .

“In this situation, Security Council reform is urgently needed to restore the effectiveness and legitimacy of the Security Council.”

But he warned that several hurdles remain. The biggest of these was the difficult issue of amending the United Nations Charter, and each country had a variety of positions on this issue.

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The veto power given to the permanent members was also an obstacle. “There are strong disagreements among member states over whether and how the current veto provisions should be extended to new permanent members of the Security Council,” Kaula said. .

“Changes to voting procedures require the consent of two-thirds of UN member states, which is no easy task. Growing geopolitical conflicts and deepening polarization have led to reform seems like a pipe dream.”

Courtney Huang, a fellow at Asia Society Australia, agreed it was unlikely.

One reason for this was competing proposals for reform, including an African-led plan and proposals by the so-called G4 of Brazil, Japan, India and South Africa. There were also concerns that states would leave the group call if they won their own seats.

“Furthermore, even in today’s politicized environment of the UN Security Council, reform processes should be consensus-driven, meaning there is little intention to actually reach an agreement and little to signal reform. It may be convenient for each state,” Huang said.

Mr Gowan said US President Joe Biden in 2022 had “tried to capitalize on feelings of dissatisfaction” with the Security Council, a move that had “very excited diplomats”.

Biden, who spoke at length about Russia’s war in Ukraine at the United Nations, said the United States supports increasing the number of permanent and non-permanent representatives on the Security Council.

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“This includes permanent members from countries that we have supported for many years, as well as permanent members from African countries.” [and] Latin America and the Caribbean,” Gowan said. “The United States is fully committed to this important effort.”

The US government appears to be able to set the agenda for other countries at its own initiative and held numerous talks on the issue last year, but no progress was made.

“Frankly, much of the talk about Security Council reform is completely empty. I think I will raise it,” Gowan said.

“No one thinks reform is imminent.”