China and Russia are exploring new areas of cooperation, including autos and agricultural products, in 2024 after bilateral trade reached record levels last year, but analysts say they are worried about uncertainty from Western sanctions. I’m warning you.
According to customs data, Russia will surpass Australia and Germany in 2023 to become China’s sixth-largest trading partner after the United States, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, up four ranks from two years ago. Rose.
But questions remain about how much bilateral trade is likely to increase this year and whether China could be targeted by the West because it provides a lifeline to Russia. ing.
That’s about 36% of the trade between China and the United States during the same period, but China exports far more than it imports, leaving it with a huge trade surplus across the Pacific.
In 2023, the value of shipments from China to Russia increased by 46.9% from the previous year to $111 billion, and the value of imports increased by 12.7% to $129.1 billion.
China’s automobile exports to Russia increased fivefold last year to approximately 800,000 vehicles, accounting for about one-fifth of total automobile exports.
Sink or swim: China watches as Russia’s economy battles Western sanctions
Sink or swim: China watches as Russia’s economy battles Western sanctions
” [Ukraine] war and [Western] Sanctions accelerated trade,” said Alexei Chigadaev, a former visiting lecturer in comparative area studies at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.
Exports to China will also grow, he added, although Russia needs China’s support to replace brands that have been withdrawn.
According to information from Spanish financial company BBVA, China will continue to export cars and machinery to Russia and receive goods and natural resources in return.
China seems to be supporting Russia in bilateral trade and finance.
“We are confident that the prosperous China-Russia trade relationship will continue into 2024,” said Dong Jingyue, senior economist at BBVA Research, predicting bilateral trade volume will increase by 25% this year.
“Russia will have to shift most of its import demands and export supplies from its allies in Europe, the United States and other countries to China.
As the Ukraine war enters its third year, the United States and the European Union have imposed additional sanctions against Russia.
The latest round of sanctions was announced in December, when leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) countries imposed a direct ban on Russian diamonds, which went into effect in early January.
The Chinese government also faces the risk of secondary sanctions, with some Chinese manufacturers already blacklisted for their involvement in Russia affairs.
“The bulk of Russia’s exports are mineral resources such as oil, gas and timber,” Chigadaev added.
China imported 79.8 million tons of crude oil from Russia in the first 11 months of last year, an increase of 22.2% from the same period last year.
“Clearly, product nomenclature can be extended to agricultural products. [such as] Fertilizer,” Chigadaev said.
China uses ‘bargaining power’ over Russia’s pipeline, testing ‘unrestricted’ relationship
China uses ‘bargaining power’ over Russia’s pipeline, testing ‘unrestricted’ relationship
Russia’s TASS news agency reported on Thursday that Russian manufacturer Uralkem Group has signed a memorandum of understanding to supply 600,000 tons of fertilizer over three years to China’s Xinjiang Golden Pomegranate Agricultural Import and Export.
Chigadaev said the European Union and the United States could start negotiations with China to increase economic pressure on Russia, but they would have to “offer something in return.”
“for example, [easing] We will impose sanctions on Chinese companies in the EU and the US.”
“But for now, the chances of this option are minimal.”