To better understand what we are witnessing, consider the following five key areas that highlight Russia’s influence on the world order.
Border between Russia and NATO
First, in 2014, Russia launched an attack on a peaceful country without any provocation. The narrative pushed by Russia and its supporters regarding Ukraine’s domestic and foreign policy shifts in 2014 is exaggerated. The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement at the time did not conflict with the existing free trade agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine’s approach towards ethnic Russian minorities remained tolerant after Euromaidan, but became even stricter in the ensuing conflict. Contrary to claims, right-wing extremism in Ukraine was and remains relatively weak compared to European standards.
Moscow was expected to attack Finland following its application to join NATO in 2022.
Ukraine’s hoped-for membership in NATO did not materialize as of 2014, and certainly remains a distant prospect to this day, given the complexities highlighted by Sweden’s accession challenges.
According to the logic often used to justify President Putin’s actions, Russia should have withdrawn its troops from the Republic of Moldova a long time ago. Moldova has been officially designated as a non-aligned country since 1994. Nevertheless, Moscow has been actively supporting militarily and economically the unrecognized Transnistrian entity on Moldova’s soil for three decades.
Based on the reasoning of those justifying Russian military action, Moscow would have been expected to attack Finland in response to its application to join NATO in 2022. Once Helsinki announced its intentions, it became clear that NATO was likely to approve Finland’s request much sooner than Ukraine’s simultaneous approval. Bidding for Membership. Although the Russia-Finland border is shorter than the Russia-Ukraine border, as of 2022 the overall border between Russia and NATO will still be significantly extended.
In addition, Finland’s possible membership in NATO caused particular concern for Russia due to the precarious position of St. Petersburg, President Putin’s hometown. Considered Russia’s second capital, the city is located very close to her NATO from both Estonia to the west and Finland to the northeast. This change in the geopolitical context in St. Petersburg made Finland’s possible NATO membership an issue of greater strategic concern for Russia compared to Ukraine’s membership aspirations.
Yet, despite all this, Russia’s reaction to Finland’s statement and NATO membership was relatively muted. Indeed, in recent years Russia has been withdrawing troops from the Northern Military District along the Russia-Finland border, even as Finland seeks to join the North Atlantic Alliance.
annexation
2. Both the 2014 and 2022 invasions of Russia were not aimed at temporary occupation, but resulted in what Russia perceives as final and complete annexation. Initially, Crimea was annexed from Ukraine, followed by four more regions in southeastern mainland Ukraine.
While such blatant territorial expansion at the expense of perceived neighbors is not unprecedented, it stands out as the most unusual foreign effort since 1945.
destruction caused by genocide
3. The invasion of Russia in 2022 is not just about territorial expansion. It is also an act of destruction. Its aim appears to be the disappearance of Ukraine as an independent state and the suppression of its cultural identity, separated from Russia.
Moscow’s genocidal intentions are evident not only in its verbal declarations, but also in its numerous terrorist acts, including:
- Hundreds of civilians and prisoners of war were killed.
- Mass deportations of tens of thousands of unaccompanied and unaccompanied children.
- Deliberate bombing of civilian infrastructure.
- Targeted destruction of Ukrainian cultural institutions such as churches and libraries.
- The establishment of “filtration camps”, Russification efforts in the occupied territories, re-education camps for Ukrainian minors and adults.
While this genocidal approach is not unprecedented since 1945, it has never been carried out in this way by a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council outside of its own territory.
Manipulate the United Nations Security Council
4. Another important aspect of this war included Russia’s intentional use of its membership on the United Nations Security Council to provide diplomatic support for a war of aggression and political support for territorial expansion. Includes earning.
Since 2014, Russia has essentially reversed the original purpose of the United Nations. The United Nations was originally established to uphold international law and protect the borders, integrity, and sovereignty of nations, but in Russia’s hands it has become a tool for expansionist purposes.
Interestingly, while Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, was one of the founders of the United Nations in 1945, the Russian Soviet Federal Socialist Republic (RSFSR), the predecessor of modern-day Russia, was not. However, the Russian Federation, which took over the RSFSR and joined the UN in late 1991, now officially includes five regions that were forcibly annexed from one of the UN’s founding republics.
As a clear illustration of this situation, in late April 2022, Russia bombed Kiev while UN Secretary-General António Guterres was in the city. Guterres had to take refuge in an air raid shelter in Kiev from a missile fired by a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
nuclear weapons
5. The most serious and dangerous effects of Russia’s actions on the global security system revolve around the fifth dimension: the nuclear dimension of Russia’s expansionist war against Ukraine.
The actions of everyone involved in this conflict are influenced by Russia’s nuclear arsenal and Ukraine’s lack of nuclear weapons, including other forms of weapons of mass destruction. Ukraine, like the West and the broader international community, is gauging its response and signals based on Moscow’s clear threat to use nuclear weapons and Kiev’s inability to retaliate in kind.
At one time, Ukraine possessed the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal after Russia and the United States.
An obviously controversial aspect of this situation is rooted in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which has been in force since 1970. The treaty allows Russia to maintain nuclear weapons, but prohibits Ukraine from acquiring or developing nuclear weapons.
Similar to the paradoxical effect of Russia’s position on the UN Security Council, Russia has subverted the essence of the NPT. Initially conceived as a means to maintain peace, the NPT essentially enables expansionist wars by nuclear-armed states due to its consistent implementation in light of Russia’s actions against non-nuclear states.
After independence in 1991, Ukraine briefly had the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal after Russia and the United States. At the time, Ukraine possessed more nuclear warheads than the recognized nuclear powers Britain, France, and China combined.
In the mid-1990s, not only did Kiev agree to dismantle its defunct intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), but as part of the controversial 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine also removed its entire nuclear stockpile for military purposes. I was also convinced that it would be disposed of or relocated. Radioactive materials, nuclear technology, and related transport mechanisms to Russia.
A particularly tragic aspect of this story emerged in 2022. Russia used parts of the delivery system it acquired from Ukraine under the 1994 Budapest Agreement to destroy Ukrainian cities.
broader international system
Russia’s war against Ukraine, which began in 2014 and escalated in 2022, has not only disrupted the liberal world order but also seriously challenged the broader international system.
Arms supplies to Ukraine from Western countries remain hesitant, limited, and slow, with certain critical types of weapons in short supply.
Russia’s attacks are aimed not only at undermining Ukraine’s democracy, but also at its statehood, identity, and overall integrity. The devastating effects of such an action by a permanent member of the UN Security Council with nuclear weapons in line with the NPT would be devastating to other Security Council members, nuclear-weapon states, and some influential Western states. made worse by a lukewarm or ineffective response from Especially Germany.
Starting in 2022, the massive sanctions imposed by the West on Russia will not fundamentally deter Russia or end the conflict, even though they have hampered Russia’s military operations and weakened its economy. I couldn’t do that. Arms supplies to Ukraine from Western countries remain hesitant, limited, and slow, with certain critical types of weapons in short supply.
Russia’s war went beyond Ukraine itself, indirectly and sometimes directly affecting the security interests of Europe and other countries. Instances of Russian missiles flying near Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, targeting embassy areas in Kiev and destroying Ukrainian grain warehouses have raised concerns. However, even militarily strong European countries facing threats from Russian military action rely heavily on the Ukrainian military to protect their interests within Ukrainian territory.
The Kremlin has achieved remarkable success in dismantling the world order that has been formed over the past three decades.
International assistance providing non-military assistance to Ukraine remains grossly inadequate.
Some Western countries are now seeking to release frozen funds held by Russia for remittances to Kiev, impose penalties on Russia for widespread human rights violations in occupied Ukrainian territory, and deport tens of thousands of Ukrainians. seeking the repatriation of people’s children. From Russia to the Motherland.
Despite these noble intentions being widely discussed, little concrete action has been taken to achieve these goals. Rather, the gap between public declarations and actual political action appears to be widening, creating the impression that the envisioned liberal world order is more of an illusion.
While it is clear that Russia as a resurgent empire is heading down a dead-end path and will eventually emerge defeated from the conflict, the Kremlin is determined to dismantle the world order that has been taking shape over the past three decades. has achieved remarkable success.
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