Alexander Stubbe has left politics. Now he’s Finland’s president’s favorite – POLITICO

HELSINKI — After seven years in the political wilderness, Alexander Stubbe has made a remarkable comeback and is closing in on a new top job as president of Finland.

Ahead of the first round of voting this Sunday, Mr. Stubb has a 3 percentage point lead in opinion polls over his closest rival, Pekka Haavist of the left-wing Green League, and ahead of seven other candidates. They have a 6 point lead.

A run-off is likely, but opinion polls have shown Mr. Stubb of the centre-right National Coalition Party (NCP) to have an advantage over Mr. Haavisto, a former foreign minister.

“The polls look good right now, there’s no denying that,” Stubb said in an interview with POLITICO. “I’m feeling positive, but I’ve been involved in enough campaigns in my life to know that things can change quickly.”

Mr Stubb was given his first ministerial post in 2008 and was promoted to prime minister by 2014, but retired from Finnish politics in 2017 and vowed never to return.

For Finns, voting directly for a new president is a big decision. The head of state has broad powers over foreign policy, is the supreme commander of the military, and is expected to be a unifying symbol of society.

Incumbent Sauli Niinistö, who is retiring after a maximum of two six-year terms, was the driving force behind Finland’s momentous decision to join NATO in April 2023.

Given Finland’s geopolitically important position along NATO’s longest border with an increasingly belligerent Russia, political leaders in Europe and beyond will also be watching Finland’s vote with interest. .

Mr. Stubb’s strong presidential campaign represents a strange political rebound.

A straightforward and energetic operator, Stubb was praised as Foreign Secretary for his informal style. However, critics also slammed his informal demeanor as unserious, and particularly objected to the fact that he sometimes wore shorts.

Images of a media stunt in 2014 in which he was glued to a target and had soft darts thrown at him have followed him ever since, but he was previously accused of using abusive language at a Nordic Council meeting and apologized. I had to. , regional cooperation organizations.

stay humble

Analysts say Mr Stubb’s success in the presidential election has been underpinned by a significantly more humble demeanor than he had so far as prime minister. The same goes for a collegial approach to dissent.

They say he overcame an early poll lead over the soft-spoken and under-performing Mr. Haavisto by maintaining a calm and polite demeanor.

“He started his campaign with a charm attack, but mainly made sweet, flattering comments about other candidates,” said Teivo Teivainen, a political scientist at the University of Helsinki.

A poll conducted by Finland’s Broadsheet MT in mid-January found Mr Stubb had 24% support from voters, compared with 21% for Mr Haavisto and 15% for far-right incendiary brand Jussi Halaaho.

In terms of major policy statements, the top two candidates both say they will take a hard line against Russia. They also hope to unite Finnish society, which has been reeling from a series of racism scandals involving members of the far-right Finnish party.

Last week, in a television interview with Finnish state broadcaster Ale, Stubbe said he aimed to be a “unifying factor” for the country.

In an interview with POLITICO early in the campaign, Haavist pointed to his strong track record of “bringing different ideas to the same table.” Haavisto served as the European Union’s special envoy to Darfur, Sudan in 2005, another difficult post.

On a recent weekday in Mr. Stubb’s hometown of Esbo, on the western edge of Helsinki, voters were largely favorable to local candidates. Voters said he had “a wealth of foreign policy experience” and appeared “professional.”

However, some had concerns about his style.

“I think we’re used to peacemaking presidents like Niinistö, whose style is very calm and reflective, whereas Stubb is more of a man of action,” said a shopper. said Lasse Sepanen, 50, a game company executive. “I’m a little worried that he’s going to divide people.”

comeback kid

Stubb grew up near Esbo with his father, an ice hockey administrator, and his mother, a housewife. His mother spoke Finnish and his father spoke Swedish, Finland’s official language. He attended school in Finland and later studied in the United States, Belgium, and England.

Stubbe entered politics as a member of the European Parliament in 2004 and rose to prominence in Finland in 2008, when he was surprisingly appointed foreign minister by Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen, also of the NCP.

When a weary Katainen resigned in 2014 to take up the post of EU commissioner, Stubb became prime minister. Middle period. But his star began to wane in 2015, when the NCP lost parliamentary elections to the liberal Center Party amid the economic recession.

In a 2021 documentary produced by Finnish National Television, Mr Stubb gave a rather bleak summary of his time as prime minister, explaining how difficult it was to work with the Social Democratic Finance Minister.

He spoke of a time when he “just couldn’t seem to handle the pressure” and how close he came to quitting before bringing in a coach to find a way forward.

In 2016, Stubb was ousted as NCP leader in favor of current Prime Minister Petteri Olupo. Stubbe relocated to Luxembourg, where he became vice president of the European Investment Bank. Since 2020, he works as a director at the Florence School of Transnational Governance, part of the EU-funded European University Institute.

When Mr. Orupo asked him to run for president with him on behalf of the NCP in 2023, with the war escalating in Ukraine and Europe’s geopolitical outlook darkening, Mr. Stubb couldn’t say no. He said he felt that way. he tried his best.

In recent weeks, he has been traveling around the country holding more than 10 events a day, including speeches, debates and television interviews. He considers the campaign an “endurance sport.”

He added that when he left Finnish politics seven years ago, he thought it would be for the better.

“The plan was to do something else with my life,” he said. “Russia’s attack on Ukraine changed my mind.”