Finland heads to vote on Sunday to elect a new president, whose role in leading foreign policy has increased due to rising tensions with neighboring Russia after the Ukraine war.
The changing geopolitical situation in Europe will be a major concern for the new head of state, who will also serve as supreme commander of the Finnish armed forces.
The group of nine candidates is led by two top politicians: Conservative former prime minister Alexander Stubb and former Green Party foreign minister Pekka Haavisto, who is running as an independent.
According to opinion polls, the two men are likely to face off in the second round of voting on February 11th.
“The next president of the republic will be first and foremost the president of the West, the president of NATO, and one of our most important relationships is our partnership with the United States,” Stubb said in a recent television interview.
Finland ended its decades-long military non-alignment relationship and joined NATO in April 2023 after relations between Moscow and Helsinki soured following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Russia, which shares a 1,340km border with Finland, immediately warned of “countermeasures”.
A few months later, in August 2023, Finland saw an influx of migrants entering the country through its eastern border without visas.
Helsinki claimed that Moscow was pushing migrants with hybrid attacks in an attempt to destabilize it. Finland closed its eastern border in November.
~”Stances are similar”~
After the Cold War, Helsinki maintained good relations with Moscow.
Incumbent President Sauli Niinist was proud of his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but has since become one of the president’s harshest critics.
Hanna Wass, vice dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Helsinki, said all presidential candidates defended both Finland’s independence and its new role as a NATO member.
“They all seem to have strong ideas that emphasize self-sufficiency,” Wass told AFP. This means we should actively contribute.”
Tuomas Forsberg, a foreign policy professor at Tampere University, said all the candidates had similar foreign policy stances.
“This is about the selection of individuals, their credibility and trustworthiness, their perceived qualifications as a foreign policy leader, their particular values and other aspects of what they represent,” he told AFP. We’ll be paying attention to what they’re doing.”
～Experienced front runners～
A poll published by the daily newspaper Helsingin Sanomat on Monday showed Mr Stubb in first place with 22%, followed by Mr Haavisto in second place with 20%.
“Both men have extensive experience in both domestic and international politics, which voters seem to value most,” Wass said.
“These are people who have been known for a long time, for generations.”
Forsberg pointed out that while Haavist and Stubbe share similar political views, they represent different backgrounds.
“Their backgrounds and values are seen as completely different, because Alex is more representative of the right and Hervist is more representative of the left. No matter how much he tries to emphasize that he’s a centrist, the road is green.”
Forsberg said the second round of election debates between the two sides could be decisive.
Right behind the front-runner is far-right Finland Party candidate Jussi Halaaho with 18% and former European Commissioner Olli Rehn, backed by the Center Party, with 12%.
Forsberg said Halaaho and Lane still have a chance to advance to the second round.
But he added that Halaa is seen as too divisive and is unlikely to win in the second round even if he makes it that far.
Wass said Finns tend to have more faith in the presidential system, despite a general atmosphere of skepticism about what can be achieved through parliamentary politics.
“The president is seen as a strong actor who is trusted by the people.”
Voter turnout in Finnish presidential elections is usually around 70%.
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