When Sauli Niinistö became Finland’s president 12 years ago, he set European defense policy, pursued “opportunities” in China and maintained “as predictable an operating environment as possible with Russia”. Although he was looking forward to doing so, it “remains the status quo,” he said. It is at the heart of our foreign policy. ”
All that has changed as the Nordic countries prepare for a presidential vote on Niinistö’s successor starting on Sunday.
Russia has become very unpredictable, and European deterrence has not yet emerged.
The United States replaced Russia as the center of Finland’s foreign and defense policy last year, rather than the European Union, after the Finns abandoned their 70-year non-aligned relationship and joined NATO.
Relations with China have been fraught with suspicion after a Chinese cargo ship’s anchor damaged Baltic Connector gas pipelines and data cables in the Gulf of Finland last October. It may have been the same ship that damaged an undersea data cable to Taiwan early last year. Suspicions of collusion between Russia and China have also surfaced.
Finland has traditionally based its security on a cautious relationship with Russia.
The Finnish president has been developing Russia’s leadership as most Western countries have done, and Niinistö has a very long personal history of dealing with Putin.
According to figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Finland’s defense budget remained less than 1.5% of GDP during the Cold War and until 2020.
Finland gave its name to this practical self-containment, or Finnization.
“Please look in the mirror”
Russia’s invasion of eastern Ukraine and Crimea in 2014 put the country on high alert.
Niinistö told Congress that defending NATO’s 1,000-kilometre (621-mile) land border with Russia, currently the longest, would require defense investments “probably larger than we’ve ever discussed.” Stated.
The turning point was in December 2021, when Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an ultimatum to NATO, expelling former Warsaw Pact member states from the alliance and strictly admonishing NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe. was.
Niinistö told Bloomberg: “It has brought about a real change in Finnish thinking.”
When Russia invaded Ukraine the following February, Finnish public opinion changed overnight.
In a Yale University poll conducted during the first week of the invasion, when asked if they supported joining NATO, 53 percent of Finns said yes. If the president supported it, the majority rose to 63%.
Last fall, support for NATO membership rose to more than 80% following the border crisis in which Russia tried to send asylum seekers en masse to Finland.
Niinistö and President Putin last met in May 2022.
“Ninistö simply called President Putin to inform him that Finland was joining NATO. It was in this famous phone call that he said, ‘Look in the mirror…this is your doing.’ ” said Minna Arundel, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. she told Al Jazeera.
“Then he was asked, ‘What do you think?’ [German chancellor Olaf] With Mr. Scholz [French President Emmanuel] President Macron’s phone call [Putin] And why not call Putin? Do you think I should call? “He was like, ‘Well, I don’t have anything to say.’
Enhanced defense strategy for a new era
Since then, Finland’s defensive posture has changed dramatically.
Defense spending this year is expected to reach 2.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), exceeding the minimum level of 2% recommended by NATO for the first time.
This will help pay for a “smart fence” along the Finnish border equipped with sensors and drones, a new set of corvettes for the navy, and a new howitzer for the army.
In February 2022, Finland purchased 64 F-35 Lightning II fighter-bombers from the US company Lockheed Martin for $9.4 billion. These are 5th generation stealth aircraft. In theory, the Finns could fly to Moscow undetected.
Last November, Finland caused a stir when it purchased the David Sling medium-range (40-300 km, or 20-250 miles) air defense system from Israel’s Rafael.
The system is designed to intercept anti-ballistic missiles used to launch nuclear bombs. Some strategists believe that would undermine mutual nuclear deterrence. In 2009, it was U.S. President George W. Bush’s similar move to deploy anti-ballistic missiles in NATO frontline states that angered Russia.
Beyond the capabilities it has developed independently, Finland has a defense cooperation agreement with the United States that allows the U.S. military to operate from its territory.
In other words, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought the full force of the Pentagon to bear.
Niinistö was already the only Finnish president to be elected with a full majority (62.7 percent) in the first round of voting in 2018. As Finland’s president is the commander-in-chief of armed groups, Niinistö’s ability to channel Finnish public sentiment into concrete policies further enhances his position. He has military power and constitutionally controls defense and foreign policy. Since 2021, his approval rating has exceeded 90 percent.
Citizens’ movements also tried to bend the rules to allow Niinisto to run for a third term, a campaign he had no interest in.
Not surprisingly, the two front-runners, former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb and former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, have sought to emulate him.
“I feel like voters want a mini-ninist,” Allander said.
Nuclear weapons, future challenges, and NATO politics
Niinistö will now bequeath a presidency that is not only more prestigious but also more complex.
“Without a doubt, the Finnish presidency is becoming a stronger institution thanks to the president’s role in foreign policy,” SM Amadae, director of the International Politics and Communication Program at the University of Helsinki, told Al Jazeera.
About two-thirds of Finns oppose reducing the president’s powers, which are largely discretionary and shaped by each president’s personality and popularity.
“The next president will play an important and precedent-setting role in how Finland’s relationship with NATO will operate,” she said.
Finland’s special relationship with Russia and its understanding of Russia have long been Finland’s selling point in the EU and NATO. A vantage point for spying on Russia, its cutting-edge 5G communications industry, and its AI industry may now replace it as a strategic advantage.
For these reasons, the vitally important relationship with the United States is likely to continue to grow.
“We can look forward to further cooperation between the United States and Finland in terms of military cooperation and business partnerships,” Amadae said.
Like the other Baltic and Nordic countries, Finland is playing an increasingly important role within the EU.
They are Ukraine’s most ardent supporters of the EU, forming a powerful foreign policy bloc within the EU, ahead of traditional powers France, Germany and Italy.
There are several divisive issues that the next president will have to make decisions on. One is whether to hand over the aging F-18 Hornets to Ukraine once the country’s F-35s become operational, further inflaming Russia.
Another issue is whether to allow nuclear weapons on mainland Finland. In a poll conducted by Amadae and his team at the University of Helsinki, only one in five Finns surveyed agreed.
Another issue is whether to abolish the military neutrality of Åland, an autonomous island belonging to Finland. That would give it NATO territorial waters extending all the way to Sweden, which is on track to join NATO.
About half of Finns say it’s time for Åland to be militarized. But Mr. Stubbe and Mr. Hervist remain steadfast.
There are other divisive military issues as well.
Should Finland, with its 60,000 soldiers and 300,000 trained reservists, also allow women to serve in the military? Stubb says yes, Harvist says no.
Should we withdraw from the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Treaty and allow mines to be mined on our fragile border with Russia? Mr. Stubbe and Mr. Hervist said no.
“These issues have not featured prominently in presidential campaigns or debates,” Amadae said. Probably because this remote country hates discord.
Even the Finns who fought against Russia in 1939 seem to agree that Ukraine must be supported. “We too have fought for freedom and independence against a far greater enemy, and we have paid a high price for it,” Niinistö told the United Nations General Assembly in September.
“We don’t want to see the world regress to a place where big companies think it’s their prerogative to conquer small businesses.”