Self-proclaimed “EU nerd” Stubb is elected president of Finland

Stubb defeated Haavisto by a very narrow margin, the same margin Tarja Halonen defeated Esco Aho in 2000. This is the smallest difference since Finland began electing its president by popular vote in 1994.

Unlike some European countries, the Finnish president is not just a figurehead. He or she works with the government to lead the country’s foreign policy and assumes the role of commander-in-chief of the defense forces.

Nevertheless, debates before the last election often explored a wide range of topics, including national unity, equality, hard work, and the social exclusion of young people.

Things were different this time.

Media coverage focused primarily on foreign policy and security policy, with an emphasis on the latter. This is not surprising since Finnish news has been dominated by a series of international conflicts and Finland’s NATO membership.

Two topics that were widely discussed were the war in Ukraine and relations between Finland and Russia, which had deteriorated to an all-time low.

This decline is due to the Ukraine war and the alleged targeting of Finland for a number of malign actions, including damaging the Baltic Connector pipeline and transferring asylum seekers to the Russian side of the border between the two countries. As a result, it got even worse.

“Because of this uncertainty, voters were looking for a president who was ready and capable from day one,” said Matti Peth, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

Mr. Harvist and Mr. Stubbe are both foreign policy veterans. Haavisto served as foreign minister in the previous government. Previously, he served as Minister for International Development and EU Special Representative for Sudan and Darfur, focusing on peace negotiations.

President-elect Stubb, a self-proclaimed EU geek, completed his PhD at the London School of Economics in 1999, where his thesis explored flexible integration between the European Union and the Treaty of Amsterdam. He then served as an advisor to the European Commission, headed by Romano Prodi.

From 2008 to 2015, Mr Stubb served as foreign minister, prime minister and finally finance minister. After he lost leadership of his party in 2015, he quit finishing politics in 2017 and became vice president of the European Investment Bank. And these days, he works as a professor at the European University Institute in Florence.

A new era of Nordic cooperation

The Nordic countries, especially Finland, Sweden and Norway, are opening a new chapter in their history, with security principles and cooperation more aligned than ever before. Soon they will all become members of NATO, part of the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force, and have defense cooperation agreements with the United States.

Ahead of the election, candidates debated whether Northern Europe should form a bloc within NATO. Although many agreed that mutual adjustment would take place, it is unlikely that an official political bloc would see the light of day.

However, both Matti Pes and Gunilla Herov, a senior researcher at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, stress the importance of building a common defense structure in the region.

“If war breaks out, all operations will be conducted through NATO, and it is important that Finland, Norway and Sweden act under a unified command.However, there are gray zone scenarios, including hybrid warfare. Now, the Nordic countries will closely coordinate their analysis and response,” Heroff explained.

He also emphasized that Swedish decision-makers realize that if Finland or the Baltic states are attacked, Sweden will be next.

“There is no option at all between being neutral or being a third party,” she also said.

Europe vs. Transatlantic Solution

Until Russia made a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the presidents of Finland and France encouraged increased EU security cooperation within the scope of Article 42(7) of the Treaty of Lisbon. In other words, this article states that if a country is attacked, other countries must also provide aid and assistance.

Finland and France may have thought that this provision could be similar to NATO’s Article 5, which states that an attack on one member state is considered an attack on all members.

However, since Finland is now a NATO member, researcher Peth doubts that Helsinki will seek stronger EU security guarantees unless Trump is elected US president again.

Trump’s influence is also raising questions in Sweden, where decision-makers are aware of the need for more European cooperation on weapons production, Heroff said.

Along the same lines, Mr. Stubb of Finland proposed strengthening European defense cooperation by allowing the European Investment Bank to finance the defense industry. Finland’s current Minister of Foreign Affairs Elina Valtonen takes a similar view.

peace vs realism

Although the Finnish debate focused broadly on hard security, both second-round candidates have experience in conflict resolution and peace operations.

Finland played a mediating role, hosting summits between President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in 2018 and between Mikhail Gorbachev and George H.W. Bush in 1990.

Ahead of this year’s elections, most candidates stressed the need to work closely with allies in Europe and North America to hold such summits in the future. But in reality, given the lack of time and resources, Mr. Peth doubts whether mediation and peace-promoting will be a priority for the president.

Finland, Europe and the Nordic countries are experiencing major changes in the geopolitical landscape, but not everything has been completely turned upside down. There will therefore be a lot of continuity in Finland’s foreign policy in the coming years.

“While there are many new things on the agenda, some things are unlikely to change. For example, Finland is unlikely to be the most vocal actor on the international stage. “We will maintain a certain level of realism in our foreign policy,” Pes said.