Why has there been a political impasse in Northern Ireland? | Explained

Story so far: Northern Ireland (NI) finally formed a new government this month after a hiatus between the two major parties since the 2022 Stormont parliamentary elections. Sinn Féin, a pro-Irish unity party, won the largest number of seats. Michelle O’Neill is the first nationalist First Minister of Stormont since the founding of NI. Emma Little-Pengery of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is firmly committed to remaining in the UK and serves as deputy prime minister.

Why did it take so long to form a government?

The DUP, which is part of the Conservative Party-led government, had signed the UK’s 2020 Withdrawal Agreement from the European Union (EU). Despite this, the party does not accept an internal trade border between NI and the rest of the UK and has therefore boycotted Stormont institutions since the 2022 local elections. The Irish Sea border was necessitated by the Conservative Party’s insistence that the 2016 referendum vote to leave would mean a complete break with the EU. After tortuous negotiations, the UK agreed to keep NI in the EU customs union to ensure Ireland remains border-free, in order to protect the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and the integrity of the EU single market. I realized that letting go was the only option. . NI therefore operates under the dual jurisdiction of the UK and her EU. This means that the region has the unique characteristic of being both a territory within the United Kingdom and subject to EU customs regulations and the Single Market in terms of trade relations with the United Kingdom. The rest of the UK remains completely outside the EU.

What is Belfast’s new deal?

The 2023 Windsor Framework addressed NI’s concerns about the UK Withdrawal Protocol and simplified the paperwork required to send goods from NI to the UK. The framework allowed a green lane for UK companies that took part in the so-called UK Trusted Trader Scheme to send goods to NI. Conversely, British goods destined for Ireland and other EU countries were cleared via the red lanes after stricter documentation scrutiny.

A proposal published in January, known as a “command paper,” would further ease procedures. This not only exempts 80% of goods shipped from Great Britain to Northern Ireland from checks, but also establishes a body to maintain Northern Ireland’s place in the UK’s domestic market – the ‘Green Lane’. It replaces. Still, the latest arrangements do not undermine the fact that UK businesses sending goods into NI will continue to face more paperwork than businesses trading between UK destinations. do not have. This is the price of dual jurisdiction in NI.

How will Sinn Féin and the DUP coexist?

Sinn Féin is hoping for a clear victory in the upcoming Irish general election, hoping it can win government on either side of the divide in a bid for future unity. Ms O’Neill suggested that a referendum on Irish unity would be held in 10 years. However, she was careful to emphasize that the government would work for the prosperity of the entire region. Now that they are back in UK government, the DUP must serve the whole nation, given that NI’s economy is outperforming that of the UK post-Brexit. The party may take comfort in research showing a majority in NI want to maintain the constitutional status quo, despite Catholics outnumbering Protestants according to the 2021 Census. At the same time, the DUP cannot overlook that 56% of NI citizens rejected Brexit in 2016.

What are the challenges ahead?

The pressure exerted by Brexit will always persist until the historic decision is unlikely to be reversed. But their resolution will not be helped by persistent political impasses that undermine the legitimate requirement for a forced coalition between trade unionists and nationalists. Ireland’s Prime Minister recently called for reform of a system he believes is no longer fit for purpose. It may be time to review the current system.

The author is Director of Strategic Initiatives at AgnoShin Technologies.