Storm patterns over Ireland still not linked to climate change – Irish Times

Storms continue to plague Ireland, with seven named storms occurring in just four months, including Storm Gerrit, which raged between Christmas and New Year.

The storm season is graphed from September to September. In this part of the world, MetÉireann releases new storm names each season in collaboration with the UK Met Office and his KNMI in the Netherlands. Then, if weather conditions suggest that an approaching Atlantic weather system may have widespread effects within their jurisdiction, individuals can name the storm based on the weather forecast. Masu.

Gerrit Storm joins Agnes, Babette, Ciaran, Debi, Erin and Fergus as the oldest G-name storm since naming efforts began in 2015. Since then, we have averaged eight named storms a season. The 2015-2016 season and 2017-2018 season had the highest number of incidents, with 11 each, and the 2022-2023 season had the least, with 4 incidents.

Other national weather organizations in the United States and Europe also name storms. When a national weather service names a weather system, other services use that name as well. This includes former hurricanes named by the US National Hurricane Center, such as Charlie (August 1986) and Ophelia (October 2017), which caused extensive damage in Ireland.

[ Storm Fergus: Tornado-like weather event causes extensive damage in Leitrim village ]

[ Storm Gerrit: Taxi driver injured by falling tree in Waterford as west coast braces for more wind ]

Storm Gerrit was named by the Met Office based on its predicted impact on Scotland. It brought strong winds and heavy rain, causing widespread destruction, flooding, power outages and transportation disruptions.

“Storm names are a key asset in our warning arsenal, making severe weather communications clearer and more effective. You can help us in our mission to protect people and keep our communities safe.” Eoin Sherlock, Head of Forecasting at Met Alien.

Higher storm levels mean more frequent and intense storms will hit Ireland, but in a relatively short period of time it is impossible to definitively attribute this to global warming. Yes, added Dr. Keith Lamkin of Met Alien. Head of Climate Change Services. The connections can only be revealed by tracing back decades of patterns.

Unlike temperature, which is well-defined, “storms are difficult to measure,” he says. Named storms are primarily based on their impact on civilians. Others may be classified based on physical effects, but not necessarily severe wind speeds. or may be classified based on the weather system’s low pressure, “but it could be far offshore.” That also means it’s difficult to say how much the storm has changed. “Everyone has a different way of measuring storms,” ​​Lamkin said.

Met Alien has a “Storm Center” that graphs storms as data such as maximum sustained/average wind speeds, maximum gusts, maximum precipitation totals, sea level pressure, and individual wave maximums off the coast are verified. .

[ Almost 2,000 without power as residents in five counties told to stay indoors as Storm Gerrit brings dangerous winds ]

The most reliable research on whether global warming is making storms worse is conducted by climate scientists under the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It suggests that northern Europe, including Ireland, is expected to experience more severe storms over the next 50 to 100 years, although their frequency may decrease, although this is considered a “moderate” storm. “Confidence”, their way of indicating possibility.

Tropical cyclones are powerful storms that form in the warm ocean waters of the tropics and frequently make headlines and have devastating effects on Europe. In 2017, a series of major hurricanes, including Harvey, Irma, and Maria, devastated the United States and the Caribbean.

Quantifying climate’s influence on such storms is “difficult,” the IPCC concluded, “partly because extreme storms are rare, short-lived, and localized. , also because individual storms are subject to a “high degree of random variability.” However, despite these challenges, progress is being made with improved climate modeling and the use of AI.

Its AR6 report concluded: probably The global proportion of category 3–5 tropical cyclones and the frequency of rapidly intensifying events have both increased globally over the past 40 years. ” These “major” storms have sustained wind speeds of 111 miles per hour or more.

Although there is no clear evidence that climate change is increasing or decreasing the frequency of storms, there is strong evidence that rising ocean temperatures will increase the intensity with which tropical cyclones develop. As global temperatures rise, rainfall is also expected to increase because a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. Additionally, sea level rise increases the risk of coastal flooding during landfall. The same applies to the Atlantic storms that hit Ireland.

Further complicating the problem, Lamkin says, is the chaotic nature of Earth’s atmosphere, which creates randomness in the weather.

[ Ireland weather: Status yellow warnings for 11 counties amid rain and strong wind ]

But there is one indicator that points to the cause of the severe storm. Atmospheric circulation pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This is an index that reflects the difference between the low pressure over Iceland and the high pressure over the Azores. When the NAO index is high (NAO index is positive), westerly winds over the Atlantic Ocean strengthen and a series of storms is directed towards northern Europe.

“This was one of the main causes of severe storms in the 1910s-1920s and 1980s-1990s, and continues to be a factor influencing annual and decadal storm variability in Ireland,” the climatologist said. Dr Lisa Orme from Maynooth University recently explained:

The weakening of key ocean currents is also a worrying trend, particularly the cessation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc).

[ November was warmer and sunnier than average despite Storm Debi bringing heavy rain ]

It is part of the Gulf Stream, which provides Ireland with a mild climate, but due to global warming, the climate is known to be at its weakest in 1600 years. But in 2021, researchers found warning signs of a tipping point. Its collapse would have dire consequences, severely disrupting the rainfall that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and Africa, and increasing storms and lowering temperatures in Europe.

The only comfort in the midst of severe uncertainty and increased volatility is that our ability to predict the weather is constantly improving. Improved local forecasts and a long-delayed new flood forecasting and warning system are being developed by Met Alien, with the latest technology systems including supercomputers in place. At least you’ll be better prepared before the storm approaches.

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