OECD research shows that there have been no excess deaths in Ireland during the pandemic, based on a number of factors. There is much to uncover from these findings.
Approximately 9,466 deaths due to coronavirus infection were reported to the Health Protection Surveillance Center (HPSC) in Ireland by early January this year.
Globally, the OECD tallied about 2 million more deaths in each of the three years from 2020 to 2022 compared to the five-year average before the pandemic.
Its analysis, OECD Health Working Paper No 163, estimates that the number of deaths will peak in 2021, with around 13.5 million deaths recorded across the 38 OECD countries.
The OECD paper moves away from the tragic reality of overcrowded intensive care units and nursing homes, and focuses on specific ways to analyze patterns of death.
Excess deaths include the total number of deaths registered each week, month, or year compared to the number normally expected for all age groups.
The OECD analysis found that Ireland was among the four countries with the lowest levels of excess deaths in the years studied, along with New Zealand, Iceland and Norway.
Mexico had the highest number of excess deaths during this period, followed by Colombia, Bulgaria and the United States.
The authors acknowledge that there were periods when the number of deaths increased rapidly in each country.
They said the weekly analysis showed “much greater variation”, leading to “severe pressure on the health system”, which may not be apparent when looking at average annual mortality rates. He said no.
For Ireland, January 2021 was one of those shocking times that people won’t soon forget.
According to HPSC data, approximately 440 people died from the new coronavirus in just one week, and the number of deaths remained at more than 300 per week for four weeks towards the beginning of February.
The OECD team took into account rapid demographic changes, with particular emphasis on the increasing number of older people.
Between 2016 and 2022, Ireland’s total population grew by 8%, and the number of people aged 65 and over also increased by 22%.
This increase in older people is particularly significant because it is more than double the increase seen across the OECD.
In a statement on the OECD document, the Department of Health said: “Adjusting mortality rates to account for these changes shows that Ireland recorded no excess deaths between 2020 and 2022.” In fact, Ireland’s death rate was lower than expected. ”
The OECD document also said that during the pandemic, there were fewer deaths from violence, accidents and other infectious diseases to which people would normally be exposed in a given year.
But the paper also reflects the complexities involved in analyzing mortality rates, as shown by public concern in recent days following the Department of Health’s comments.
The research team found that countries with successful vaccination programs saw a decline in deaths directly related to COVID-19.
At the same time, he said, “The pandemic has also disrupted the health care system, making it difficult for people to receive medical care at times.”
They suggested that this may be contributing to increased deaths from other diseases.
In Ireland, oncologists have separately warned that the impact of the pandemic on cancer rates may not be understood for another decade.
Research from Maynooth University and the University of Limerick found that “excess mortality during the COVID-19 period is almost 40% higher than the excess mortality recorded during the ‘severe’ influenza season of 2017/18”. found.
They measured this using notifications on the funeral website ‘Rip.ie’, but also noticed that there were fewer notifications at other times of the year.
In April 2022, health regulator Hiqa said: “An estimated 2,019 excess deaths occurred in Ireland between 2 March 2020 and 28 November 2021.”
They found that there were two long periods of increased deaths in early 2020 and early 2021, and that “in mid-to-late 2021, Ireland’s excess mortality rate was among the lowest in Europe. was observed,” he said.
Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said: “An investigation will certainly begin in 2024.”
The terms of reference set out its scope and are expected to be submitted to Cabinet shortly.
However, the Irish Patients Association is calling for further analysis of the deaths as part of preparations for the inquiry.
“We believe that in the interests of the families affected by these deaths, the OECD needs to further explain its calculations,” the spokesperson said.
“We need to know more about what the indicators are showing. And importantly, an analysis of mortality rates in Ireland will be carried out ahead of a public inquiry to ensure the same thing doesn’t happen to other people.” It should be done with a fundamental focus on why we are doing this.”
