Two things I never do at the beginning of a new year are predictions and resolutions.
Resolutions fall by the wayside as old habits re-establish themselves. Predictions are never completely correct. Unexpected things can and will happen.
Your choices will have unexpected consequences. And for him, 2024 will be a year of choices that will define the years to come.
General elections are likely to be held in the UK and southern Ireland this year. That’s why I said “likely” because both the UK and Irish governments favor the home team when it comes to setting the election date. Elections must be held by spring 2025, but neither is likely to plan elections in the first months of next year.
Local elections and EU Parliament elections are also scheduled in June in southern Ireland.
The Irish government also plans to hold a referendum to amend outdated constitutional definitions of women’s roles in the home. Their substituted wording, leaked to the media, is uninspired and will no doubt be challenged. Under the referendum rules, both sides of the constitutional referendum must be given equal time and support.
This year is also an election year in America. By the end of the year, there will be new governments in Ireland and the UK, significant changes to the EU Parliament and Commission, and potentially changes to both houses of parliament and the government.
All these choices are in the hands of the people. Those choices will have fundamental implications not only for Ireland, British-Irish relations, and Irish-American relations, but also for wider Europe and the international community.
The upcoming Irish general election could be historic. In the last election, Sinn Féin emerged as the largest party. The position they established. Until then, since the founding of the country, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael had dominated both the government and the opposition. After that election, both men came to power as part of a coalition with the Green Party. Their common policy goal was to keep Sinn Féin out.
Mary Lou McDonald became the first woman to lead an official opposition party and the first Sinn Féin president. Since then, support for the party has grown. Sinn Féin has made no secret of the party’s ambition to lead the government, preferably without Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. In doing so, she will become the first female Taoiseach in the first Sinn Féin-led government. It will be a chance to break away from the past.
The party is also confident of its success in local elections in the south and in the European elections.
European Parliament elections are held in the same week across member states. Reactionary right-wing parties are on the rise in Italy, the Netherlands, and Germany.
The EU continues to face challenges, including the war in Ukraine, the lack of a ceasefire agreement over the Gaza siege, and expansion plans with additional countries wishing to join. It remains to be seen how these elections will turn out. Parliament and the European Commission face major strategic challenges that will define her EU project for the coming decades.
One thing is for sure: Britain has no say. As a result of the choice to leave the EU, they left parliament and committees. Britain’s Labor Party maintains a significant lead over the ruling Conservative Party. Twelve years have passed since the last Labor government. Given the extent of Labor’s lead and the current government’s daily scandals and dysfunction, it appears that Labor is well placed to win. As a result, Labor leader Keir Starmer has taken conservative and cautious positions on most issues. The party appears to be relying more on voters’ opposition to the Conservatives than on making clear what Labor stands for. It remains to be seen what differences a Labor-led government will make in terms of Irish and EU policy.
One of the first tasks on the new Prime Minister’s desk will be to defend the UK government’s current law before the European Court of Human Rights. The outgoing government passed legislation ending police and police ombudsman investigations into actions during the conflict. This interferes with the family’s right to an autopsy and access to court. This is opposed by victims, all political parties in Ireland and human rights groups.
The British Labor Party in Westminster also opposed it. Just before Christmas, the Irish government launched interstate proceedings against the UK government’s inheritance laws in the European Court of Justice. The case is expected to be heard within the next two years. The choice facing Keir Starmer is to defend and oppose legislation in government that is inconsistent with the Good Friday Agreement, or to stand by his word and withdraw the legislation and renege on the existing government and the bipartisan Stormont House Agreement. I’ll go back.
Calculations for the election will be made within the Democratic Unionist Party. They have seats in Westminster to defend when they try to block the formation of a government in the north or a potential change of government in London and Dublin.
Despite its grandiose title, the largest unionist party has a selective approach to democracy. Eighteen months ago, a majority of voters in Stormont supported a return to government. Sinn Féin became the largest party in the jurisdiction and Michelle O’Neill became the next First Minister. The DUP refuses to respect these results and continues to obstruct the government. Sharing power with Ireland’s republican prime minister seems like a step too far for some in the party.
The DUP are masters of only making decisions when they absolutely have to. When the option of doing nothing comes at a cost to the parties involved. These efforts have been facilitated by the UK Government over the past 18 months. The cost was paid by the people, by the economy and by faith in the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement.
Despite the change in presentation, the DUP is not moving. The party, which gained notoriety for saying “no,” has over the past 18 months presented itself as a party of “no, but maybe.” It is long past time for the DUP to make a decision. The two outgoing governments now need to come up with a plan for inter-Korean relations. And the devolved bodies will operate and the agreement will be protected in the absence of the DUP and a functioning executive.
DUP does what DUP does. It will be up to either the outgoing or incoming government to move forward with implementing the Good Friday Agreement.
Regardless of the election result, the case for a united Ireland will continue. The genie is out of the bottle and discussions are now taking place in homes, academia, law, art, and business circles. It’s an exciting time.
A Sinn Féin-led government in Dublin will prepare, plan and advocate for unification. The Fianna Fail and Fine Gael governments may continue to be unstable.
Election results can accelerate or slow progress, but they cannot stop it.
It is a constitutional and political obligation for the Irish government to plan and prepare for unification. Everyone agrees that a referendum is imminent. The smart thing to do is to plan and prepare. If the Irish Government takes the lead on this issue, it will be a game changer between North and South, Britain and Ireland, and internationally.
A unitary referendum, the right of people sharing an island to decide their constitutional future, is the cornerstone of the Good Friday Agreement.
That’s not a point of contention. It is part of the agreement and a settled issue. This requires the UK government to act with strict impartiality in its discussions and to act on the result of the referendum.
The debate will continue to grow across Ireland and the United States.
In a world where the international order has collapsed, Ireland and our peace process can continue to act as a beacon of hope.
Managing the process of change is a key challenge for the next government. Respect for agreement and the law, respect for democracy, and defense of rights remain the means to assert the primacy of politics over conflict. That is the lesson of the Irish peace process. The current impasse can and will be overcome if the government returns to these principles.
This year will be a year of choice for people and governments. While we cannot predict how the year will end, we hope that those in power will remember the lessons of the past and work towards a better future for everyone. I am confident that, whatever the outcome of the US election, Ireland will continue to be a partner for peace.
*Ciarán Quinn represents Sinn Féin in the United States.