Friday, November 22, 2024

A majority of under-45s in the North will vote for a united Ireland

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It was found that some 49% supported remaining in the UK, while 39% preferred a united Ireland.

However, a united Ireland remains the most popular option for people under 45, with support for the Union strongest among middle-aged people and pensioners.

There are also important midpoints that could swing future referendums, with 11% of those surveyed not knowing what they would do and 1% saying they would not vote or would spoil the vote. .

The findings were revealed in a LucidTalk survey. belfast telegraph stationand emerged amid growing debate over constitutional issues.

Under the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, the incumbent Northern Ireland Secretary must conduct a border poll if he considers there is evidence that public opinion in the region has shifted in favor of change.

Successive British governments have consistently refused to specify publicly what criteria will be applied when gauging public sentiment on this issue.

But calls for a referendum have grown since Michelle O’Neill was appointed as Northern Ireland’s first nationalist prime minister.

Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald says unity is “within reach”, prompting DUP leader Geoffrey Donaldson to say he must be “the longest arm on the island” he said.

Our polling shows that while more than 8 in 10 nationalists want a border poll within the next 10 years, fewer than 1 in 10 unionists do so. found.

In fact, almost two-thirds of Labor members believe there should not be a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future.

Support for a united Ireland is widest among younger age groups.

Among 18- to 24-year-olds, 48% want a united Ireland, with 43% choosing Confederation.

Among 25- to 34-year-olds, 45% to 41% support constitutional reform, and among 35 to 44-year-olds, 44% to 42% support constitutional reform. In contrast, middle-aged people and retirees support maintaining the status quo.

Among those aged 45 to 54, 54% to 42% support the Coalition, and among those aged 55 to 64, 64% to 28% support the Coalition.

Some 48% of pensioners voted to remain in the UK, while 36% supported a united Ireland.

Staying in the Union is the most popular option for Union voters (36%), with 27% supporting a united Ireland and 35% undecided.

By contrast, Green voters are far more likely to support a united Ireland (55%), with just 10% wanting Northern Ireland to remain in the UK and 35% undecided.

Around 69% of SDLP voters voted to abolish the Union, 14% voted to keep it, 11% were unsure what they would do and 6% said they would not vote or spoil the vote.

Non-voters are much more likely to be union members, with 53% saying they would vote to keep Northern Ireland within the UK, 30% choosing a united Ireland and 17% still undecided.

Support for the coalition among men is split 56% to 38%, but among women it is much closer at 43% to 40%.

Women are three times more likely to be undecided about how to vote (16%), compared to just 5% of men who are undecided.

A majority (52%) said they wanted a united Ireland at some point in the future, and 44% said they would always support Northern Ireland remaining in the United Kingdom.

71% of Alliance voters, 72% of Green Party voters and 94% of SDLP voters aspire to a united Ireland.

Only 11% of Union supporters said they always wanted Northern Ireland to become part of the United Kingdom.

Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris has said he does not believe there will be a border check within the next 10 years, but 44% of people want a border check to be done within that time frame. Of these, 13% said it should be implemented within 11 to 20 years, and 10% said it should be implemented over 20 years. Year.

Just over a quarter of voters (28%) think a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future should never be held.

Some 83% of nationalists want a border survey within 10 years, but only 8% of union members agree, and 63% of union members say a border survey should never be held It is said that it is not.

Among Alliance and ‘other’ voters, 45% support a referendum within 10 years, and almost three-quarters say it should definitely happen within 20 years.

Carrying out a border check within 10 years is most popular among young people, with 50% of 18-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds compared to 40% of pensioners and 35% of 55-64 year olds. 54% of people aged 10 and 10 want a border check.

About 40% of the latter oppose holding a referendum, while 26% of those under 35 agree.

A third of men say they would oppose border checks under any circumstances in the future, compared to only a quarter of women who think so.



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