British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak took an unaccustomed victory lap on Monday when he visited Belfast to celebrate the return of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government. Ministers struck a deal last week to return disgruntled North Korean trade unionists to the territory’s parliament.
It was a rare and unique success for Mr Sunak, who has struggled on many other fronts. Not only because it ends two years of political deadlock in Northern Ireland, but also because some analysts believe it could strengthen United. Since leaving the EU, the kingdom appeared to be on the verge of disintegration.
Diplomats and analysts say the restoration of Northern Ireland’s autonomy will shift the spotlight from the seductive prospect of a united Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to everyday issues such as shorter hospital waiting times and pay rises for citizens. He said that the spotlight will be on him. Worker.
“There was someone responsible for promoting the issue of Irish unity,” said Katie Hayward, a political science professor at Queen’s University in Belfast. “Nothing was working, everything was broken, so people were thinking of alternatives. If the institutions were working, the pressure would be a little bit less.”
This does not mean that the dream of a united Ireland has disappeared. Irish nationalist party Sinn Féin has the largest number of seats in parliament, allowing its leader, Michelle O’Neill, to become the government’s first minister on Saturday, a move with symbolic significance. It was a moment to hold it. He said a referendum on Irish unity could be held within the next 10 years.
For the first time since partition in 1921, which left the north under British rule, Catholics, who tend to support unification, make up a majority of the territory’s population. In the south, opinion polls suggest that Sinn Féin, which has ties to the Irish Republican Army, could rise to leadership after next year’s elections.
Still, O’Neill did not mention Irish unification in his public statements after becoming the first minister. It wasn’t a coincidence. Analysts say her aim is to reassure the public that Sinn Féin, which is aligned with the pro-remain Democratic Unionist Party, can govern effectively.
“It’s not in their interest to keep beating the drum,” said Bobby McDonagh, a former Irish ambassador to the UK. “The focus in the coming years will be on power sharing and functioning of government.”
Mr McDonagh said there were similar incentives for the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). For the party, which has been negotiating with Sunak’s government for nearly a year to improve the terms of Britain’s trade deal with the European Union on behalf of Northern Ireland, its biggest argument for remaining is that it can work constructively with the EU. It’s about showing. Nationalist.
For Mr Sunak, a period of peace would ease fears that have lingered since Britons voted to leave the European Union in 2016. Northern Ireland voted 56% to 44% against leaving the EU, with tensions related to its unusual trade situation arising as part of the UK that shares an open border with EU member Ireland. It divided the members and gave an advantage to the nationalists.
This, along with demographic changes in the north, raised hopes that Irish unification might occur sooner than expected.
Similar momentum has taken hold in Scotland, where fierce opposition to Brexit has led to a surge in support for leaving the UK (Scots voted against leaving the country in the 2014 referendum). But even there, a development occurred in Sunak’s favor. While support for independence remains stable at just under 50%, the Scottish National Party, which leads the movement, has been hemorrhaging support since financial scandals involving its former leaders.
In the case of Northern Ireland, diplomats say Mr Sunak deserves credit for systematically renegotiating the deal left behind by one of his predecessors, Boris Johnson. Johnson’s withdrawal agreement with Brussels imposed onerous trade restrictions on the North.
“What he’s doing is undoing the damage that Boris Johnson has done,” said the former chief of staff to Prime Minister Tony Blair, who introduced power-sharing and led the sectarian movement that lasted decades in Northern Ireland. said Jonathan Powell, who helped negotiate the Good Friday Agreement that ended the conflict between the two countries. .
Mr Powell also said former Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith had held backchannel discussions with unionists, and Mr Sunak’s foreign policy adviser John Bew, from Belfast, was also heavily involved. To change the direction of trade union members.
The British government framed its agreement with the DUP as a way to ensure that Irish unity remained a distant goal. In a document published on the terms of the deal, the government said there was “no realistic prospect of a border poll leading to a united Ireland” based on recent polling data.
Under the Good Friday Agreement, the UK is obligated to hold a referendum on whether Northern Ireland should leave if there is clear evidence that a majority in the north and south support leaving. Opinion polls in North Korea show that people vote against secession by a double-digit margin. But in the republic, opinion polls show overwhelming support for unification.
The government said: “We believe that Northern Ireland’s future in the UK will be secure for decades to come following the restoration of the devolved system and it is therefore unlikely that the conditions for a border check will be objectively met.” Ta. (Mr. O’Neill’s comments about the timing of border checks were in response to that statement.)
Mr Sunak, who met in Belfast with Mr O’Neill and DUP leader Emma Littlepengelly, who is also deputy prime minister, said the agreement with union members would secure his place in the union in Northern Ireland.
But Sunak himself faces elections later this year, which analysts say could have an uncertain impact on the stability of North Korea’s new government.
Some analysts said that if Sinn Féin were to take power in the south, it could strengthen resistance among some voters in the north to leave the Union. But it also makes the prospect of a united Ireland more concrete.
“The debate about a united Ireland needs to become more realistic,” Professor Hayward said. “I understand that everyone doesn’t want to repeat the Brexit experience. They’re going to have to manage it more carefully.”