WASHINGTON: President Joe Biden took office vowing to negotiate an end to the bloody war in Yemen and remove US troops from danger.
He will begin his re-election year by launching an attack on the country instead, but his government hopes calm will return.
Experts say the Biden administration, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and their Iranian backers have a delicate and dangerous tacit understanding. He speculates that while both sides feel the need to use force, the other side does not want to escalate.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made four tours of the Middle East and has prioritized containing the conflict since Hamas militants attacked Israel on October 7, triggering a massive retaliation in Gaza.
U.S. officials privately believe that Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which is also supported by Iran’s clerical state, heard the message.
By contrast, the Houthis have defied U.S. warnings by professing solidarity with the Palestinians and persistently firing on international ships, disrupting global trade in the Red Sea and forcing long diversions around Africa. I forced it.
Blinken briefed regional partners on Friday’s U.S. and British airstrikes against the Houthis on a plane returning to Washington during his latest trip, which the U.S. described as defensive. , clarified that it does not consider this to be a new salvo. Regional war.
“I don’t think the conflict is escalating. There are a lot of red spots. We’re trying to address each of them,” Blinken told reporters Thursday in Cairo, his last stop.
It is notable that Biden did not mention Iran in the statement announcing the airstrike, even though the US had previously accused Iran of providing the capability to attack the Houthis. This omission likely indicates that the regional power is not in the direct crosshairs of the United States.
The Biden administration has also responded to more than 100 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and neighboring Syria since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, and an escalation of attacks following attacks on Iran-linked Shiite militias in Iraq. He claimed that he was retaliating rather than doing so.
Extensive US and UN diplomacy resulted in a truce in Yemen between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed internationally recognized government starting in April 2022, sparking one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The 10-year civil war has come to an end.
Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who studies the Houthis, said the rebels were acutely aware that the United States did not want to disrupt the fragile peace in Yemen, the poorest country on the Arabian Peninsula. .
Knights said the Houthis have a “very high pain tolerance” after years of fighting and that an attack on their missile capabilities is unlikely to change their hold on power in Yemen.
“The Houthis understand to some extent that they are bulletproof at this point,” he said.
“They have enough power to do what they’re going to do and turn their noses up at the world’s biggest powers, and they’re kind of high on this moment. They’re drunk on it. It is.”
Although Israel has vowed not to slow down its campaign to eradicate Hamas, he expected the Houthis to wind down the conflict in parallel with the war in Gaza.
“What the United States is trying to do is get the Houthis out before the Gaza conflict ends, which is probably not possible,” he said.
Sarhan Hamashed, director of the Middle East program at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said the Houthis see the conflict as a “manageable” way to raise their profile in the region.
“However, it is very likely that the loss of life on either side will cause the other side to further escalate, which could continue the chain reaction and lead to more regional conflicts,” Hamashid said. Ta.
“I don’t think the major actors want it, but that doesn’t mean it’s inevitable,” he said.
John Alterman, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in an analysis that Iran is likely “delighted” by Houthi attacks on international shipping, and that Iran “will not be able to do so without paying any cost.” We can reap the benefits.”
But Alterman said it was a mistake to believe that Iran was directing the attack, and that despite the risks and economic damage, he doubted that the Houthi attack itself would spark a broader Middle East war. Ta.
“Neither side wants all-out war, and there are significant disagreements,” he said.