Scientists are making it increasingly clear that if the world wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we need to eat less meat.
But the message isn’t getting through. Politicians have set targets to phase out petrol cars and gas boilers in some countries, but are reluctant to do the same with what we eat.
“We’re not moving in the direction of reducing meat and dairy consumption,” said Lewis Bollard, a livestock expert at Open Philanthropy. “Americans and Europeans are eating less beef and pork than they used to, but they’re more than making up for it in chicken and eggs.”
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations predicts that global meat consumption will increase by 14% by 2030 compared to 2018-2020.
However, some countries are beginning to embrace change. Denmark is probably the most advanced. Official dietary guidelines have been updated in 2021 to recommend that adults eat just 350g of meat (equivalent to about three hamburgers) a week, in line with the recommendations of the scientific EAT-Lancet committee.
Last October, Denmark also became the first country to publish an action plan on plant-based food, calling plant-based (vegan) food “the future” and setting out measures to increase both demand and supply. The government initially allocated 675 million Danish kroner ($98 million/£78 million) in funds to promote plant-based foods. Additionally, we are working on introducing a carbon tax on agriculture, at least in theory.
Denmark’s pioneering role may seem counterintuitive, given that many Danes deeply love pork, and Denmark is one of the world’s largest exporters. But the country has a tradition of finding common ground, says Rune Christopher Dragsdal, secretary general of the Danish Vegetarian Association. “People are willing to work together, even with people they disagree with.”
So in recent years, the Vegetarian Society partnered first with organic farmers and then with Denmark’s main agricultural lobby. They found that they could agree on the economic opportunities to promote organic, plant-based products.
Dragsdal said some farmers are willing to “develop a Plan B” even if they stick to Plan A, which is to continue producing meat. In their minds was the country’s success as an early developer of wind power. “We said, let’s make this a new wind turbine adventure for Denmark.” Once farmers’ groups got involved, the political anxiety dissipated.
But in other countries, the transition has been more confrontational. Dutch farmers have staged fierce protests over proposals to reduce livestock numbers aimed at curbing nitrogen pollution. Italy’s right-wing government supports banning cultured (laboratory-grown) meat, saying it would be an attack on the country’s culture and farmers.
In the UK, then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson rejected the National Food Strategy in 2021. The National Food Strategy is an independent review launched by the government that recommends a 30 per cent reduction in meat consumption by 2032.
And the current chancellor, Rishi Sunak, tried to boost his political fortunes by promising to veto the meat tax, even though there was no serious proposal.
Britain’s National Farmers’ Union has also pushed back against scientific calls for dietary changes. “What we eat is a personal choice,” says Vice President Tom Bradshaw. “Blanket policies to reduce meat consumption can significantly oversimplify a complex topic by lumping all meat into one category.”
The NFU claims grazing is climate friendly because it stores carbon in the soil. Although this claim is viewed with skepticism by many scientists, it is widely supported among farmers. “I would go to jail before I paid the carbon tax on my cows,” said one British farmer, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“I think a lot of politicians are afraid of the meat industry,” says Open Philanthropy’s Bollard. He pointed out that the EU had removed a proposal to encourage people to eat less meat from its strategy to make the food system sustainable, known as “farm to fork.”
The best hope, say those hoping for change, is to focus on the carrot, not the stick, such as funding research into new fermented foods.
For example, Germany’s 2024 budget includes €38 million to promote plant-based foods. Similarly, the UK has committed £12m to a cultured meat initiative led by the University of Bath. But this is only part of what is needed to make the country a leader, says Linus Pardot, UK policy manager at the Good Food Institute Europe, which promotes meat alternatives. Padeau calls for simpler licensing of cultured meat and relaxed rules on the labeling of alternative dairy products (the term “oat milk” is currently not allowed in the UK, as in the EU).
Even if national politicians reach an impasse, other actors may take the lead. Supermarkets working to reduce emissions “have the ability to make a difference” by changing what they sell, Pardot said.
In the U.S., Bollard says, “the most reasonable next step is to focus on the state and city governments that are leading the way in tackling climate change.” New York City, where Mayor Eric Adams advocates a largely meat-free diet, has pioneered “plant-based diets by default in public hospitals and two-day-a-week meals in public schools.” We adopted a series of reforms.”
Key to Denmark’s approach has been to fund both high-tech and low-tech solutions, from new fermented products to teaching chefs how to cook with vegetables and legumes.
But carrots alone will not be enough. Government climate change advisers estimate that agriculture will account for 40% of Denmark’s greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. “I think at some point you’re going to need a cane,” says Dr. Dragsdal of the Vegetarian Society.
The next step in Denmark is a carbon tax on agriculture, with proposals expected in the coming months. This is likely to be politically controversial, especially for beef farmers. But the good news is that once a wealthy country implements a transition, it can cause ripples around the world.
“People admire what rich people eat,” Dragsdal says. “What you eat in Denmark, Scandinavia, the UK and the US matters because that’s where many parts of the world are heading.”