The number of people waiting for more than 12 hours in A&E departments in Northern Ireland is now 36 times higher than in 2009, Fact Check analysis has found.
Meanwhile, the number of people waiting more than four hours to be seen, transported or discharged has almost quadrupled.
These are both important indicators that Northern Ireland uses to measure emergency care performance.
The health service aims to treat 95% of patients within four hours and never have a patient wait more than 12 hours.
Our analysis of official data shows that on average around 258 patients endured such extreme waiting times each month in 2009.
By 2023, that number was 9,924. (The latest statistics cover January to September of last year.)
While there is no doubt that the situation has worsened since Covid-19, the poor performance of Northern Ireland’s emergency departments predates the pandemic.
By 2019, 4-hour wait times had increased nearly three times as much as in 2009, and 12-hour wait times had increased nearly 14 times over the same period.
What causes long wait times?
The number of patients attending A&E only increased by 10% between 2009 and 2023, but this alone does not explain the sharp rise in long and very long waiting times.
However, Northern Ireland’s Department of Health told Fact Check that demand was driven by the “severity of patients’ conditions”. In other words, while there may not be as many patients in A&E as before, the severity and urgency of symptoms means more resources are needed to treat them.
The ministry also pointed to social care capacity, which it said “will impact discharge rates and therefore the flow of patients out of hospitals”. [emergency departments]” Simply put, if care homes are full, more patients will have to be admitted, and patients who arrive at A&E will have to wait longer for a bed or staff to attend.
And the department alludes to ongoing problems in many parts of Northern Ireland’s public sector, namely the political gridlock at Stormont.
As of this writing, Northern Ireland has been without a government for over 700 days.
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has said it will not take part in power-sharing in Northern Ireland until the UK government amends parts of its post-Brexit deal with the EU.
The DUP is concerned that the Windsor Framework agreed by Rishi Sunak treats Northern Ireland differently to the rest of the UK and wants this to change.
Without agreement from all parties involved in power-sharing, Northern Ireland’s parliament would not be able to sit and routine government tasks such as approving budgets for public services would be curtailed.
The Department of Health alluded to this in its response to Fact Check, describing how “budget pressures and years of budget uncertainty” have “hindered” investment in “capacity expansion” for the health service. explained.
As part of a longer statement, the department said it was “acutely aware of the pressures within emergency departments”. This situation reflects the current pressures across the health and social care systems, where demand for health care exceeds existing capacity. ”
A spokesperson told us: “Emergency department staff make every effort to keep waiting times as short as possible. Patients are treated according to clinical priorities, with emphasis on the most serious and life-threatening conditions.”