Finland chooses between two presidential candidates with hard-line stance on Russia

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Finns head to the polls on Sunday to choose between two veteran politicians to become their next head of state.

Former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, 55, of the center-right National Union Party, will face former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, 65, of the left-wing Green League.

The winning candidate will be at the helm of the country’s foreign and security policy after it recently became a member of the NATO alliance, abandoning its historically neutral position.

Both candidates share a hard-line stance on Russia, support stronger ties with the United States, and vow to continue supporting Ukraine militarily and financially.

The country shares a 1,340 km border with Russia. In November, Helsinki closed all eight official border crossings with its eastern neighbor, claiming that Moscow was using migrants to destabilize Finland in what it described as a “hybrid war.”

But in the final days of the campaign, small differences in style and approach between the candidates emerged.

“After a very thorough campaign in the first round, there was a little more conflict between the two contestants for the post,” said Teivo Teivainen, a professor of world politics at the University of Helsinki.

Mr. Stubbe and Mr. Harvist differ on the hypothetical question of whether Finland, a new member of NATO, would allow the shipment of the alliance’s nuclear weapons within its territory.

“Mr. Stubb is taking a more aggressive stance on bringing nuclear weapons into Finnish territory,” Teivainen said. “This reflects his somewhat positive attitude toward NATO integration and the United States.”

Unlike most European countries, the Finnish president holds executive powers, working with the government to develop foreign and security policy, particularly regarding countries outside the European Union, such as the United States, Russia, and China.

The head of state also assumes command of the military, but this is due to the current security environment in Europe and the changing geopolitical situation of Finland, which joined NATO in April 2023 in the aftermath of Russia’s attack on Ukraine the previous year. This is especially important.

Opinion polls show Mr Stubb’s lead shrinking

Stubb, a member of the conservative National Union Party, won the top spot in the first election on January 28 with 27.2% of the vote.

Mr Stubb led the government from 2014 to 2015 and previously held several other cabinet positions and is considered a possible successor to current president Sauli Niinistö.

But polls show that Stubb’s lead is narrowing in the last minute as Hervist moves up the rankings.

Haavisto, who was runner-up in the first round, was Finland’s top diplomat from 2019 to 2023 and the main negotiator for NATO membership. Haavisto, a former United Nations conflict mediator and avid environmental activist, received 25.8% of the votes in the first round.

A runoff election was necessary because no candidate received more than half of the votes in the January vote.

Harvist, a former leader of the Green League and running as an independent, is seeking his third consecutive term in office, following elections in 2012 and 2018.

Heads of state are expected to distance themselves from day-to-day political battles and have little involvement in domestic political conflicts.

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However, Finland was hit by a major trade union strike earlier this month, and both candidates are facing questions during their campaign.

Mr Stubb distanced himself from his party’s approach of giving employers and employees more freedom to resolve disputes locally and said he would not intervene in labor market issues as president.

For his part, Haavisto said he would, at the very least, try to gather the relevant parties for behind-the-scenes discussions.

Far-right and liberal voters could swing the outcome

Floating voters will likely support the far-right populist Finland Party and the regionally-based Center Party.

Candidates from these parties lost in the first round, but around 615,000 people, nearly 20% of voters, voted for Parliament Speaker Jussi Halaaho, a former Finnish leader.

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Analysts say voters who support traditional values ​​will decide Finland’s president.

“The second election will be decided mainly by Finnish and Center Party voters,” Teivainen said. “There’s a lot of conservatism and patriotism among them, so Haavisto’s homosexuality and his career as a public servant are important.”

Finnish men are required to serve in the military or civil service through conscription.

Herbist’s strong environmental advocacy is seen as alienating or dividing some voters, but the centre-right backers of Stubb appear to be more united in their support. is.