The Finns faced the most consequential presidential election in modern history on Sunday, after the Nordic country joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and neighboring Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago. I plan to vote in the election.
The Finnish president has three roles. They lead the country’s foreign policy outside the EU, are the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and, more symbolically, embody the country’s values.
“This is a very important moment in Finnish and European history. The challenges of leading foreign and security policy in the current environment should not be underestimated. It’s a very difficult environment for a small country,” Olli Rehn, a former Finnish minister, EU commissioner, and presidential candidate, told the Financial Times.
A long-running campaign between a group of establishment politicians who agree on most major foreign and security policy issues has ended with harsher, more populist rhetoric from Jussi Halaaho, former leader of the anti-immigrant Finland Party. It has been suspended in recent weeks. , who is rising in the polls.
On Sunday, Finns will vote in the first round of elections to choose the successor to Sauli Niinistö, who is stepping down after two six-year terms. The top two candidates who emerged on Sunday will face off against each other in two weeks.
The latest poll by state broadcaster Eire shows former prime minister and long-time front-runner Alex Stubbe with 27%, former foreign minister Pekka Haavist with 23%, Halaaho with 18% and Rehn with 14%. There is.
Mr Stubbe has previously served as foreign minister and finance minister, and most recently headed the policy research center at the EU-funded European University Institute in Italy. He told the FT that Finland shares a 1,340km-long border with Russia, meaning the country’s importance has increased since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago. he said.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, “Finland suddenly became an immediate frontline state,” Stubb said. “For the United States, Finland is currently one of the most strategically important countries in the world,” he added.
Haavist, a former Green Party leader who is running as an independent, admitted it was difficult to see “very big political differences” between the two candidates on issues such as NATO, aid to Ukraine and dealing with Russia.
“Character, experience are very important in tackling difficult situations in foreign policy. I served as Foreign Secretary for four years. My experience is practical. “At a time when people are looking for security, not partisan choices,” he said in a separate interview.
Experts say Stubb, an international Finn known for posting his Ironman and triathlon exploits on social media, toned down his style and instead focused on the risk of Russian invasion in 2008. He is said to have focused on his eight years in office, including warnings about Moscow invades Georgia.
Hannah Wass, vice dean of social sciences at the University of Helsinki, acknowledged there was “broad agreement” among the candidates on security policy issues. “This may be rather reassuring for voters. Whoever is elected, Finland will continue on the path it took after the Russian invasion two years ago,” she added.
The joker of the group is Hala Aho, a former Finnish party leader and speaker of parliament. During his campaign, he insisted that ministers and members of parliament should be Finnish-born, slammed state television, and sued Green Party politicians and comedians for defamation for calling him a “fascist”. It was controversial.
“The Finns party has once again shown the ability to twist the electoral agenda by exploiting themes related to socio-cultural issues. They appear to be particularly skilled at applying them in innovative ways. ,” Wass said.
As a result, Hala’aho’s support has soared in recent days, with some opinion polls suggesting he could threaten Haavisto’s second place. However, all polls agree that Stubb, Herbist, and Lane will each defeat Halaaho in the second round runoff.
The new president will need to address issues such as establishing Finland’s place in NATO and fully integrating its military into the alliance. Many of the country’s politicians are angry that the country was initially placed in a chain of command with the Baltic states rather than with its Nordic neighbors. Sweden’s impending entry into NATO could strengthen Helsinki’s argument that the two countries should join Norway and Denmark.
Finland is also in demand in both NATO and the EU due to its high defense spending and military preparedness. The country was one of the first countries to develop a long-term plan to expand artillery production, which is vital for both itself and Ukraine.
And in contrast to neighboring countries such as Sweden, Estonia and Norway, which have made shrill comments in recent weeks about the possibility of war with Moscow, the country has a calm and resolute approach to Russia. There is a tradition of dealing with it.
The defining event for modern Finland was the Winter War of 1939-1940, during which it fiercely resisted a much stronger Soviet army but ultimately lost control of its territory (including the town where Stubb’s father was born). I lost it. During the Cold War, Finland avoided policies that would unduly anger Moscow (a strategy that became known as Finlandization), but unlike nearly all of its neighbors, it has always maintained military strength.
“Russia will not disappear,” Harvist said. “It is our neighbor now and will be our neighbor in the future. We are prepared for all kinds of scenarios. Our NATO membership strengthens our security and makes us This will raise the threshold for action.”