HELSINKI — Vote counting in the presidential election was underway in Finland on Sunday night, as the new North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member country faces threats from a hostile Russia.
Finland’s first election in 12 years to elect a new head of state is expected to require a second vote. The country’s hugely popular President Sauli Niinistö has served two terms, but he is not eligible for re-election.
Niinistö, seen as a force to be reckoned with, is seen as the person most responsible for Finland’s entry into the NATO alliance, and will have a big task no matter who becomes president.
The latest pre-election polls have revealed that Alexander Stubbe and Pekka Haavisto are the two frontrunners out of nine candidates. Both men are familiar faces with strong foreign policy records.
Polling stations in the capital Helsinki were crowded on Sunday, with a steady stream of voters braving near-freezing temperatures and icy sidewalks to cast their votes in the Rauttasaari district. Volunteers greeted them cheerfully and welcomed them despite the cold.
Voting closed at 8pm local time, and results were expected to be known late Sunday. If no candidate receives a majority of votes, a runoff election will be held on February 11 between the top two candidates from the first round.
While many European presidents have primarily ceremonial roles, Finland’s president drives foreign policy and acts as commander-in-chief. This skyrocketed Niinistö’s global fame after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, solidifying his approval rating of over 90%.
“The most important decision of Sauli Niinistö’s presidency was to join NATO,” wrote former political journalist und Hämäläinen in the latest issue of Finland’s Helsingin Sanomat magazine. “His tenure will be remembered for decades to come.”
Analysts say the next president will not only draw comparisons to Niinistö, but also be expected to build on his legacy. First and foremost, he will manage Finland’s integration into NATO amid concerns about potential Russian aggression and escalating tensions in the Baltic region.
“Expectations for his successor are extremely high,” said Juhana Aunesluoma, a political history professor at the University of Helsinki.
Finland shares an 830-mile border with Russia and has a history of hostilities. The neighboring countries have been at war many times over the centuries, and Finns have strong memories of the 1939 Winter War and World War II, when their country lost territory to the Soviet Union. Analysts say security is voters’ top concern as the war in Ukraine continues and Finnish officials accuse Russia of trying to destabilize their country.
That’s why voters want a president with the widest possible range of experience in foreign policy, and that’s reflected in the candidate pool.
“Even liberal candidates are adopting a line that emphasizes military preparedness and border security,” said Johanna Vuorelma, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at the University of Helsinki.
Haavisto is running for president for the third time after losing to Niinistö in the previous two elections. Mr Haavisto, the founder of the centre-left Green Party, first stood for parliament in 1987 and since then he has been a central figure in Finnish politics, serving as a member of parliament, a UN official and several government positions. He most recently served as Finland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2019 to 2023.
Mr Stubb is also a former Foreign Secretary and former Prime Minister. A prominent member of the centre-right, he left Finnish politics in 2017 and vowed not to return, but said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed his mind.
The candidates agree on most foreign policy issues, including joining NATO, securing borders with Russia, and dealing with Moscow.
That makes differences in their personalities increasingly important to voters, analysts say. Since the campaign began in earnest last summer, candidates have traveled to Finland to meet with voters at schools, gas stations, shopping malls and markets. Stubbe, an Ironman triathlete, often performs at sporting events. Harvist adopted the stage name “DJ Pexi” and began spinning records at student events to appeal to younger voters.
The debate was conducted with dignity and civility, a sharp contrast to the often rowdy parliamentary campaigning. Mr. Haavisto and Mr. Stubb announced their unifier stance during the campaign, likely due to the expectation that the election would proceed to a runoff.
Turnout in presidential elections in Finland, a country of 5.6 million people, tends to be around or above 70%. More than 1.8 million Finns, or 44% of the country’s eligible voters, voted in early voting, according to preliminary data.
This article was originally published in The New York Times.