Finnish voters will vote in a presidential election on Sunday as the new NATO member faces threats from a hostile Russia.
Finland’s first election in 12 years to elect a new head of state is expected to require a second vote. The country’s hugely popular President Sauli Niinistö has served two terms, but he is not eligible for re-election.
Niinistö, seen as a force to be reckoned with, is seen as the person most responsible for Finland’s entry into the NATO alliance, and will have a big task no matter who becomes president.
The latest poll shows that two of the nine candidates are the frontrunners: Alexander Stubbe and Pekka Haavisto. Both men are familiar faces with strong foreign policy records.
The results of Sunday’s election are expected to be known later Sunday. If no candidate receives a majority of votes, a runoff election will be held on February 11 between the top two candidates from the first round.
While many European presidents have primarily ceremonial roles, Finland’s president drives foreign policy and acts as commander-in-chief. This helped propel Niinistö to global prominence and cemented his approval rating of over 90 percent after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
“The most important decision of Sauli Niinistö’s presidency was to join NATO,” wrote former political journalist und Hämäläinen in the latest issue of Finland’s Helsingin Sanomat magazine. “His tenure will be remembered for decades to come.”
Analysts say the next president will not only draw comparisons to Niinistö, but also be expected to build on his legacy. First and foremost, he will manage Finland’s integration into NATO amid concerns about potential Russian aggression and escalating tensions in the Baltic region.
“Expectations for his successor are extremely high,” said Juhana Aunesluoma, a political history professor at the University of Helsinki.
Finland shares an 830-mile border with Russia and has a history of hostilities. The neighboring countries have been at war many times over the centuries, and Finns have strong memories of the 1939 Winter War and World War II, when their country lost territory to the Soviet Union. Analysts say security is voters’ top concern as the war in Ukraine continues and Finnish officials accuse Russia of trying to destabilize their country.
That’s why voters want a president with the broadest possible experience in foreign policy. The candidate pool reflects that.
“Even liberal candidates are adopting a line that emphasizes military preparedness and border security,” said Johanna Vuorelma, a researcher at the Center for European Studies at the University of Helsinki.
Haavisto is running for president for the third time after losing to Niinistö in the previous two elections. Haavisto, the founder of the centre-left Green Party, first ran for parliament in 1987 and has since become a central figure in Finnish politics, serving as a member of parliament, a member of the United Nations, and several government positions. He most recently served as Finland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2019 to 2023.
Mr Stubb is also a former Foreign Secretary and former Prime Minister. A prominent member of the centre-right, he left Finnish politics in 2017 and vowed not to return, but said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed his mind.
The candidates agree on most foreign policy issues, including joining NATO, securing borders with Russia, and dealing with Moscow.
That makes differences in their personalities increasingly important to voters, analysts say. Since the campaign began in earnest this summer, candidates have traveled to Finland to meet with voters at schools, gas stations, shopping malls and markets. Mr. Stubb, an Ironman triathlete, often appears at sporting events. Harvist adopted the stage name “DJ Pexi” and began spinning records at student events to appeal to younger voters.
The debate was conducted with dignity and civility, a sharp contrast to the often rowdy parliamentary campaigning. Both Mr. Hervist and Mr. Stubbe positioned themselves as unifiers during the campaign, perhaps in anticipation of the election going to a runoff.
Turnout in presidential elections in Finland, a country of 5.6 million people, tends to be around or above 70%. More than 1.8 million Finns, or 44% of the country’s eligible voters, have already cast their early votes, according to preliminary data.