U.S.-educated and extremely pro-American, Finland’s next president, Alexander Stubbe, is the perfect person to lead his country into a stronger transatlantic partnership and redefine its role in the world order as a newly formed NATO member. It looked like it was ready.
Instead, he will take office next month at a time when U.S. politics is once again questioning the durability of that relationship and the wisdom of European countries in counting on it.
For weeks, the two candidates in Finland’s presidential runoff, won by Mr. Stubb on Sunday, have touted their pro-NATO credentials and tough views on Russia. Former US President Donald J. Trump then threatened that if re-elected, he would let Russia “do whatever it wants” with NATO allies that do not contribute enough to collective defense.
After decades of non-alignment, the small Nordic country of 5.6 million people now has NATO’s longest border with Russia, and European leaders That’s not what he wants, as he warns that the conflict between the continent and Moscow could drag on for decades. .
Mr. Trump’s comments served as a stark reminder to many European countries that relying on the U.S. government in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is no longer as sure a bet as it seemed.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement on Sunday: “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines our overall security, including that of the United States, and puts American and European soldiers at further risk.” It will happen,” he said.
But in Helsinki, the newly elected Mr Stubb remained calm.
On Sunday night, in his first comments since winning the election, he chalked up Trump’s words to the difference between the fiery rhetoric of the American campaign and the consensus-driven views of the Finnish presidential campaign. did.
“For us, foreign policy is an existential issue,” he said at a press conference on Monday.
Instead, he made this disturbing comment to the Finns by telling the Finns that Europe, facing its biggest ground war since World War II, should rely on its own country, without relying on Washington, for whoever enters the Oval Office. He urged people to take this as another reminder that we need to take our defense seriously.
Mr. Stubb, who called himself a “devout transatlanticist,” said he believes U.S. involvement in NATO is important, but that he still believes Europe needs to rely more on itself.
“Russia’s aggression and attack on Ukraine has turned the entire European security order upside down,” he said. “We in Europe must ensure that we fulfill our role in NATO. Finland is a country that will continue to do so. We are security providers, not security consumers.”
Finland has a long history of wars with its larger eastern neighbor. The Finns coined the term “Molotov cocktail” during the 1939 Winter War with Russia. Living in Russia’s shadow, Finland has long had a military conscription and already spends more on defense than the 2% of gross domestic product that NATO members have committed to spending.
Stubbe, who switched between fluent Finnish, Swedish and English during the press conference, even insisted that Trump was “fundamentally correct” in saying that countries are obligated to meet their spending commitments.
Mr. Stubb, a center-right politician and former prime minister, earned a bachelor’s degree on a golf scholarship from Furman University in South Carolina (and is able to recreate some amazing Southern hustles). He originally wanted to be a professional golfer, but then turned to international relations and became an academic.
He entered the world of international politics in 2004 and was elected to the European Parliament as the candidate of the Finnish National Union Party. In April 2008, Finnish Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen appointed him Minister of Foreign Affairs. Four months later, he was in charge of the country’s response to Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia.
Later, as Minister of European Affairs and Minister of Finance, Mr. Stubb was involved in government approvals for Russia’s Rosatom Nuclear Energy Company and a new nuclear power plant to be built in Finland, as well as construction permits for the Kremlin-backed Nord nuclear power plant. 2 pipelines flowing through Finnish waters.
Mr. Stubb has since publicly admitted that those decisions were wrong.
After losing a leadership dispute within his party, Stubb vowed to retire from Finnish politics, becoming vice-president of the European Investment Bank in 2017 and becoming an academic at the European University Institute in 2020. Ta.
He attributed his return to politics to the invasion of Ukraine, which put Finland and Sweden on the path to NATO membership and redefined their role on the world stage at a time of heightened global instability. .
Finland has a parliamentary system of government, but the president is responsible for foreign policy and acts as commander-in-chief.
“Stubb clearly has big ambitions to play a bigger role as Finland’s president in international affairs,” said Juhana Aunesluoma, a political historian at the University of Helsinki.
As for how he would deal with the possibility of Trump becoming president again, Stubb told voters already on the campaign trail: “We have a plan to take Trump to the golf course and make him win.” .