Finns are set to elect a new president on Sunday in their first national election since joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a move critical to shaping the country’s role in the alliance amid increasingly fraught relations with Russia. You will have to choose a suitable leader.
The election may normally attract little attention beyond the sparsely populated Nordic country of 5.6 million people. But Finland, a new member of NATO, shares its longest border with Russia (approximately 1,330 miles) and, as the geopolitical order changes, its politics are of special interest to allies in Europe and the United States. There is.
US power is being challenged by Moscow and China, and Europe is grappling with its largest ground war since World War II. At the same time, the US commitment to aiding Ukraine is increasingly in question, with an unpredictable US presidential election looming.
Finland’s president is in charge of foreign policy and whoever wins will have primary responsibility for steering the country through a changing world.
“The future president will have an impact on what kind of NATO country Finland becomes in the future,” said Jeni Kalimäki, a political analyst at the University of Helsinki. “NATO membership is one of the things that is creating interest in these elections and, of course, the global political situation in general.”
Finland’s decision to join NATO marked a major break in decades of history. The risks and responsibilities of non-alignment and the country’s new position in the world are at stake over who should succeed the popular Sauli Niinistö, whose second six-year term expires in March. dominated the election campaign.
The two remaining candidates in Sunday’s run-off, Alexander Stubb of the centre-right National Union Party and Pekka Haavisto of the centre-left Green League, both strongly support the decision to join NATO. , take a strong stance. Line view of Russia. The difference between the two is mainly stylistic.
Mr Stubb, a former prime minister who received the most votes in the first round, touted his security credentials.
“I’m as hawkish as the best of them, there’s no question about that,” he told the New York Times.
He said it has become more difficult to counter Russia in the era of hybrid warfare. Cyberattacks are on the rise, with Russian hackers claiming responsibility for some of them.
One of the most worrying issues for voters is the surge in asylum seekers crossing the Russian border into Finland, which many in Finland see as a signal from Russia that it is agreeing to join NATO. ing. The Russian government had warned of “countermeasures” against Finland’s membership in NATO.
“The line between war and peace is blurring,” Stubbe said. “The Russians are very good at hybrid warfare.” Moreover, “they will do everything possible to intimidate and destabilize public opinion in Finland, especially in It’s a complete failure.”
Haavisto, who served as foreign minister from 2019 to 2023, has used his background as one of Finland’s key negotiators for NATO membership to signal that he is equally tough on Russia. But he is wary of even his most hawkish positions. his identity has been shaped over the years As a peace negotiator for the United Nations, Finland, and the European Union.
The differences in the two candidates’ approaches became memorably clear during one debate. When asked whether he would accept a congratulatory telegram from Russian President Vladimir V. Putin if he won the election, Stubb answered that he would not, leading to a split in opinion. But Harvist said he would.
There are only a handful of other positions that truly set candidates apart, such as their stance on nuclear weapons. Mr. Stubb has indicated that he would allow the alliance to transport nuclear weapons within Finnish territory, but Mr. Haavisto said he had no intention of doing so.
However, current Finnish law prohibits nuclear weapons on Finnish territory and the president cannot legislate, so this issue remains hypothetical.
Haavisto travels around Finland, holding listening sessions at gas station centers, a common hangout in small towns in the Finnish countryside.
He also DJed himself, using the nickname DJ Pexi, and hosted several campaign events playing everything from the Beatles to Belgian punk. One of his last campaign events was a concert performed by several famous Finnish musicians.
Eino Nurmist, a social media influencer who attended the concert, said: “Voting for Pekka Haavisto is important for me because I want to preserve the last bits of peace in an increasingly bellicose world.” .
Mr Stubbe, an avid athlete, started the second round of the campaign with a walk in central Helsinki and a cross-country skiing campaign event. He also opened a series of cafes across the country where voters could stop by for coffee, snacks and election supplies to escape the frigid temperatures.
“We are living in very important times for Finland’s future,” said Claes-Henrik Taucher, warming himself over coffee in a Helsinki cafe.
Beyond Russia, there are other concerns across the Atlantic. What lies in store for Finland’s NATO membership if Donald J. Trump, an outspoken critic of the alliance and even threatening to withdraw the United States, wins November’s presidential election?
“The decision to join NATO was based on the idea that America, Americans are here to stay, and that America’s involvement will continue for a long time,” said Matti Pes of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. “If the United States decides to weaken its commitment, it would be a great irony and would undermine Finland’s deterrence value as a NATO member.”