Former prime minister predicts victory in first round of Finnish presidential election

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Finnish public broadcaster YLE also predicted that Parliament Speaker Jussi Halaaho would come in third place with 18.6%.

With no candidate receiving more than a majority of votes, the projected results will force the race to go to a runoff between Mr. Stubbe and Mr. Haavisto on February 11th.

YLE’s predictions, which have been highly accurate in past elections, are mathematical models calculated based on advance voting and a certain number of Sunday votes, based on official data provided by the Legal Registration Center. Exit polls are not normally used in Finland.

Mr. Stubbe, 55, and Mr. Hervist, 65, were the main candidates in the election. Some 4.5 million voters chose among nine candidates to succeed the hugely popular President Sauli Niinistö, whose second six-year term expires in March. He was not eligible for re-election.

Initial turnout was calculated at 74.9%.

Stubbe represents the Conservative National Union Party, which led Finland’s government from 2014 to 2015, while Haavisto, a veteran politician and former UN diplomat and member of the Green League, is running as an independent candidate for the third time.

Unlike most European countries, the Finnish president has executive power in shaping foreign and security policy, especially when dealing with countries outside the European Union such as the United States, Russia, and China.

The President also serves as the Supreme Commander of the Finnish Armed Forces, a particularly important task in the current European security environment.

The main themes of the election were foreign and security issues, including Finland’s recent membership in NATO, future policy toward Russia, increased security cooperation with the United States, and the need to continue supporting Ukraine both militarily and with humanitarian aid. It was a matter of policy.

Finland’s new head of state will begin his six-year term in March in a significantly different geopolitical and security situation in Europe than that of incumbent Niinistö after the 2018 election.

Finland became NATO’s 31st member state in April, abandoning decades of military non-alignment following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but Russia’s Vladimir border, which shares a 1,340-kilometre border with the Nordic nation, This greatly annoyed President Putin.

Finland’s entry into NATO, which has made it the Western military alliance’s frontline country against Russia, and the escalating war in Ukraine, just 1,000 kilometers from Finland’s border, have elevated the president’s status as a leader in security policy.

As foreign minister, Haavisto signed Finland’s historic NATO accession treaty last year and played a key role in the accession process alongside Niinistö and former Prime Minister Sanna Marin.

Finland’s western neighbor Sweden is set to join NATO in the near future, and Hungary, the last holdout, is expected to ratify its bid for Stockholm by the end of February.