According to the latest European election poll, Finland’s presidential election will be contested between two former foreign ministers, Alexander Stubbe of the center-right Kokomus party and Pekka Haavisto of the Green Party, who received 26% and 23% of the vote respectively. %, far ahead of other candidates. for Euractiv ahead of Sunday’s voting show.
Finland joined NATO in April last year in the wake of neighboring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, ushering in a new era.The winner will be the successor to current President Sauli Niinisto, who is retiring after two six-year terms. becomes.
Finland’s foreign policy has traditionally been the responsibility of the president, who leads foreign policy in cooperation with the government.
With the election scheduled for Sunday, and a second round likely to be held on February 11, Mr Stubb currently leads the race with 26% in the polls.
Not far behind is Haavisto, at 23%, according to Euractiv’s latest Europe Elects forecast.
While the race between these foreign policy giants is close, the same cannot be said for third place, as the latest polls show all the other candidates trailing Mr. Haavist by at least six points.
[ea infogram id=”infogram_0_006392f6-94d3-49df-bdbd-2f265e5ba737″ title=”21 Jan 24 Finland Presidential polling” src=”https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed.js?PB3″ type=”text/javascript”>]
Return of the stub
Mr Stubb is a centre-right politician and professor who began his political career in 2004 as a member of the European People’s Party (EPP).
From 2008 to 2011, he served as Minister of Foreign Affairs under then Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen, and from 2011 as Minister of European Affairs and Foreign Trade, and after Katainen resigned in 2014, he served as Prime Minister and leader of the National Coalition Party (NCP). He also served as He became a minister in 2015 after being expelled from parliament amid the economic downturn.
After retiring “permanently” from politics in 2017, Mr Stubbe began a three-year term as vice president of the European Investment Bank and began teaching at the European University Institute’s School of Transnational Governance.
According to his CV on the European University website, Mr. Stubbe was interested in foreign affairs even before his political career began and worked as a researcher at the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1995.
Mr. Stubb cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the main reason for running for president, and said his interest in foreign affairs persuaded him to return to politics. Current Prime Minister Petteri Olupo also asked him to run for president.
Stubbe said that while he was prime minister, he supported Finland’s membership in NATO, but as of 2014 membership was not part of the NCP’s program.
popular figures
Compared to his rivals, Harvist brings a more colorful political history to the table. The former foreign minister is one of Finland’s most popular politicians and has topped recent presidential polls by several media outlets.
He was the runner-up in the 2012 and 2018 presidential elections, but lost to incumbent Niinistö.
In addition to serving as Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2019 to 2023, Minister for Development Cooperation from 1995 to 1999 and 2013 to 2014, Minister for Asset Management (under the Stubb government) from 2013 to 2014, and Minister for Asset Management from 1995 to 1999. In 2007, he served as Minister of the Environment.
He has twice chaired the Green League and was also leader of the European Green Party from 2000 to 2006. He served as an MP from his 1987 to his 1995, returning to Parliament after a 12-year break and has been an MP ever since.
Haavisto was in charge of foreign affairs and the Nordic region in parliament. He also has experience as a member of the Helsinki City Council, Board of Directors, Property Committee and Tax Committee.
During his time at the United Nations, Mr. Haavisto worked with Environment Program missions in conflict zones and helped facilitate peace negotiations in Darfur in 2007, where he served as the EU’s special envoy. From 2009 to 2017, Haavisto continued his diplomatic work in Africa.
If elected, Haavisto will become Finland’s first openly gay president.
Runner-up candidate
In third place in the polls, far behind the other two candidates, is former Finnish Party (ECR) leader and far-right candidate Jussi Halaaho. Although he is more Eurosceptic than most, he said in August last year that the goal of Finland leaving the EU was “not realistic in any way”.
Fourth place goes to Liberal candidate and former EU enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn, who is running as an independent but is supported by the centrist Keskusta (Renewal) party.
Socialist Jutta Ulpilainen (SDP/S&D), a former European Commissioner for International Cooperation, resigned from her position in the EU Executive and ran for office, but is expected to fall short with 8% of the vote.
Despite the socialists ranking highly in national opinion polls, Ulpilainen continues to underperform as an SDP presidential candidate, with many SDP voters expected to support Pekka Haavisto instead.
About a third of voters have already cast early votes, according to data from the Ministry of Justice.
All candidates have similar positions on key EU issues, such as the EU’s need for economic independence from China. They have also pledged strong support for Ukraine’s attempts to join the bloc and receive more military aid.
Finnish presidential elections are held every six years in early January and February. Any political party with parliamentary representation can nominate a candidate, and constituency coalitions can also nominate candidates if they receive 20,000 signatures.
If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes in the first round, the top two candidates advance to a runoff.
(Olivia Gyapong & Julius Lehtinen | Euractiv and Europe Elects)
