Stormont is back. However, the agreement between the UK government and the DUP announced this week shows that Northern Ireland remains in flux, both economically and politically. And this means that the opportunity to attract a new wave of inward investment and develop the economy may now have passed.
Northern Ireland has a chance to protect itself from the madness of Brexit by retaining free access to the EU single market and selling to the UK. But this involves creative subterfuge that unionism seems unable to endure. Now, this week’s UK government newspaper has cast doubt on the direction of Northern Ireland’s economy by focusing purely on the UK market and rejecting the idea of following EU rules. And when it comes to attracting inward investment from major corporations, doubts can be fatal as they have many other options.
The big new economic sales card handed to Northern Ireland by the post-Brexit deal – the ability to sell goods freely to both UK and EU markets – may not be politically sustainable. In his first call to arms after negotiating the deal, DUP leader Geoffrey Donaldson said Parliament would soon have the opportunity to consider some proposed changes to EU law, which would mean: The so-called Stormont Brake allows the implementation of EU rules to be halted and sent for further discussion.
A key part of the deal announced this week is to “tighten” the brakes, even if their use is actually quite limited, and to make it law that Northern Ireland will not automatically follow EU rules. It was to write. Doing this begins to undermine the ambiguity needed in her post-Brexit plans to sell freely to both the EU and UK markets. Because, at some stage, the EU will start restricting Northern Ireland manufacturers’ access to the single market if the latest EU rules are not complied with – environmental, product standards and everything else. Potential big investors who were attracted to Northern Ireland will see this coming and take their operations elsewhere.
…Once the already discredited and shaken Tory Brexit extremists lose influence after the next UK general election, the New Labor government will abandon the “ripping up the EU rulebook” nonsense .
The Stormont Brake was introduced into the Windsor Framework as a kind of political fig leaf to cover the fact that Northern Ireland must continue to follow EU rules if it is to remain part of the EU single market for goods. incorporated. This is certainly not as troublesome as it seems. In reality, once the already discredited and sluggish Tory Brexit militants lose influence after the next UK general election, the New Labor government will drop the “tear it apart” nonsense. EU Rulebook”. It is likely to remain consistent with most EU rules to allow for as free trade as possible.
But the idea of following EU rules has been weaponized by trade unionism. It’s a real-life version of British tabloid politics, full of references to “bureaucracy” and “Brussels bureaucracy”. The main factor creating red tape in the UK is Brexit itself, as demonstrated once again with new rules regulating imports into the UK coming into force this week.
Mr Donaldson won some ground on reducing bureaucracy in post-Brexit Northern Ireland goods inspections, but needed to pivot slightly this week as most of his ‘victories’ were in the original Windsor framework However, the DUP rejected it as insufficient. .
But the wording of this week’s agreement shows that some circles cannot be squared. Since Brexit means the UK leaving the European Union, Mr Donaldson can promise there will be no “routine” checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from the UK, but this does not mean there will be no checks at all. Far from it. Avoiding the border on the island of Ireland means regulating goods crossing the Irish Sea.
However, the unique ability to trade freely in opposite directions of the UK and EU single market was a potentially valuable prize, protecting Northern Ireland from trade barriers faced by other UK companies accessing European markets. The risk now is that this issue will gradually fade away as the DUP and its allies demand not to be seen to be following the EU’s ‘rulebook’. This is flag-waving politics and destructive economics. The document’s promise to assess rule changes from London to ensure they don’t hurt British trade doesn’t seem to mean much.
[ Irish unity ‘within touching distance’ after DUP vote, says McDonald ]
Northern Ireland has a choice. whether it accepts the “democracy deficit” caused by following the rules set in Brussels and focuses on the economic advantages of being the only part of the UK with free access to the vast EU single market; It is. However, Northern Ireland had the potential to be a unique selling point for domestic investors. And this week’s push for a deal risks undermining that.
To make Northern Ireland truly work economically, all sides needed to accept the ambiguity posed by the Windsor Framework. The EU only signed it for political reasons and because the North is so small.
Politically, this is a move away from the balance provided by the Belfast Agreement, and puts the emphasis firmly back on the desire to protect the alliance and trade with the UK. The obligation to take account of Ireland’s whole-island economy as part of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU will be removed from UK law. Perhaps all this was necessary for the important goal of restoring Stormont. Interestingly, the SDLP does not support the deal, arguing that it is disproportionate and departs from the spirit of the Belfast Agreement.
[ Stormont now has no plausible excuse for failure. That doesn’t mean failure is impossible ]
And now there will be an interesting dynamic in Congress. Not only will Sinn Féin want to appear competent, they will also want to advance their central argument that Northern Ireland is better off with a united Ireland. The DUP, on the other hand, wants to continue clinging to Britain’s struggling economy, and that claim could eventually come true. Because border polls show it’s being heavily despised.
To make Northern Ireland truly work economically, all sides needed to accept the ambiguity posed by the Windsor Framework. The EU only signed up to this framework for political reasons because Northern Ireland is very small. Although the trade rules are written in black and white, enough room for fabrication was found to allow Northern Ireland to sell freely to both the UK and the EU. If Northern Ireland’s future is to look only to the UK and make a mockery of the EU’s ‘rulebook’, this opportunity will be lost and Northern Ireland will be economically disadvantaged post-Brexit. It will be.