The Space Climate Research Group at the University of Oulu in Finland has been studying the impact of rainfall of high-energy particles from space, commonly known as auroras or aurora borealis, on winter weather fluctuations. The aurora is not only a beautiful optical phenomenon, but also involves chemical changes in the upper regions of the polar stratosphere that lead to the depletion of the ozone layer in winter.
Ozone layer depletion caused by high-energy particles intensifies the polar vortex, a strong wind that blows from west to east around the polar regions during the winter. The intensification of the polar vortex also strengthens westerly winds at the surface, leading to milder winters, especially in northern Europe and Finland.
“On the other hand, in winters with weak particle precipitation, the polar vortex weakens and may even collapse completely, allowing cold Arctic air to flow south. “This is the time of year when we are hit by cold waves,” says Associate Professor Timo Akainen. “The polar vortex has already broken once this winter and is predicted to break again this weekend. Our own models already predicted the possibility of the polar vortex breaking during the winter last summer. I was there.”
Experience has shown that, especially in Finland, the consumption of electricity, and more generally of energy used for heating, is highly dependent on the weather. This raises the question of how much the fallout of particles from space affects power consumption through the polar vortex. A recent study by the Space Climate Group at the University of Oulu was the first to address just this question.
The study found that particle precipitation has a significant influence on winter temperatures in Finland and on the temperature-dependent part of electricity consumption during the winter season (January to March). The precipitation-related variability of high-energy particles is at most about 14% of the average level of winter electricity consumption in Finland and can explain up to 50% of the annual variation in electricity consumption.
“The most important results of the study showed that particle precipitation, or alternatively geomagnetic activity, has a strong influence on winter temperatures and electricity consumption in Finland through the polar vortex. , and vice versa,” says postdoctoral researcher Veera Juntunen.
This study used comprehensive electricity consumption statistics from the 1990s to the present provided by the Finnish Energy Association. “We had to carefully remove non-temperature-related fluctuations from these data. This revealed the impact of particle precipitation on temperature and power consumption,” says Juntunen.
This relationship was valid from the 1950s to the present, but interestingly it was only valid in winter when equatorial stratospheric winds, the so-called QBO winds, blow from the east.
“This QBO effect has already been observed in previous studies and is related to the fact that when the QBO wind is easterly, large-scale atmospheric waves, so-called planetary waves, are guided from the lower atmosphere into the polar stratosphere. There, along with particle precipitation, the observed effects on the polar vortex occur,” explains Akainen.
This study reveals interesting new social effects of space weather. Considering particle precipitation from space will help us learn how to more accurately predict particle precipitation on longer timescales than we currently do, and in the best case predict winter temperatures months or years in advance. and may help predict power consumption.