Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Tesla stock is rising on the most volatile day of the year.

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Tesla stock rose on the first trading day after Christmas, a day when the electric vehicle leader’s stock tends to be volatile.

Shares rose 1.4% in midday trading.


S&P500

and


Nasdaq Composite

They rose by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.

China appears to be the biggest reason for this push. Weekly insurance registration data tracked by Wall Street shows Tesla posting a record quarter in the world’s largest battery electric vehicle market. Registration is a proxy for sales volume.

Tesla is scheduled to release its fourth quarter delivery data on January 2nd. Analysts predict that a record 475,000 units will be sold, up from about 435,000 units delivered in the third quarter. The company does not disclose quarterly sales by region.

However, data from industry associations provides information about what is happening. China registration data shows Tesla delivered about 18,000 Model 3s and Model Ys last week, bringing the quarter-to-date total to about 155,000 with one week left, according to Citi analyst Jeff Zhang. It became a platform.

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This does not include the more expensive Models S and X, which typically account for about 3% to 5% of overall sales. Tesla’s previous highest quarter of deliveries in China was in the second quarter of 2023, when it delivered about 156,000 vehicles. Tesla will sell only two of its four models in China, and should exceed that number.

China’s record sales have given investors some confidence that the overall sales reported on January 2 will be a record.

The refreshed Model 3 is also selling well. Tesla has sold about 30,000 new Model 3s in China so far in the fourth quarter. This is up from approximately 23,000 units in the third quarter of 2023.

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Tuesday’s post-Christmas rally follows a pattern for Tesla stock. Since Tesla became a publicly traded company in 2010, the stock has risen in 10 of the 14 post-Christmas sessions.

The day after Christmas can also be unstable. Shares rose an average of 4% up and down in the first trading session after Christmas. While gains outweigh losses, the average move is a 0.1% loss due to tough down days. Tesla stock fell 11% the day after Christmas 2022 as investors worried about rising interest rates and the ownership of Twitter CEO Elon Musk, now known as X.

Tesla stock ended 2022 down about 65%, but was up about 108% so far in 2023 by midday Tuesday.

Email Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com.



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