There is a simple explanation for the puzzling finding of the Covid-19 pandemic review that there were no excess deaths in Ireland – Irish Times

The finding of an international study that no excess deaths were recorded in Ireland during the core phase of the coronavirus pandemic may seem puzzling to some.

Research published by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) found that Ireland was one of only nine OECD countries to avoid excess deaths between 2020 and 2022. The state had the fourth lowest tax rate after New Zealand, Iceland and Norway.

The idea that proportionately fewer people have died in Ireland than expected during the pandemic seems counterintuitive to those who remember those dark days, especially to families bereaved by coronavirus-related deaths. It might seem like it.

The first thing to note about the OECD preliminary study is that it was written by a disinterested expert working for an organization based in Paris.

Indeed, subsequent studies, much of which were based on the increase in the number of death notices published online, identified large numbers of excess deaths during this period. Maynooth University researchers found that excess mortality in 2020 was almost 40 per cent higher than in the severe influenza winter of 2017-2018. A study by the Health Information and Quality Agency (Hiqa) found that there were more than 2,000 excess deaths in the spring and early summer of 2020, at the height of the pandemic, and in the winter of 2021.

So which take is correct? Or are both correct?

The first thing to note about the OECD preliminary study is that it was written by disinterested experts working for an organization based in Paris. The report makes no attempt to gloss over the devastation wrought by the pandemic, with its main finding being that 2 million more people died compared to the average number of deaths across the OECD in each year from 2020 to 2022. The deaths were recorded. Number of deaths in the five years leading up to the pandemic.

The number of deaths registered across the OECD in 2021 increased by 19% compared to pre-pandemic average levels.

Ireland’s total population grew by 8% between the 2016 and 2022 censuses, with the number of people aged 65 and over growing by an impressive 22% during that period.

The major difference between this study and other studies is that it takes into account changes in each country’s population structure over the period covered. Western countries are aging, and Ireland is aging faster than most other countries.

Ireland’s total population grew by 8% between the 2016 and 2022 censuses, with the number of people aged 65 and over growing by an impressive 22% over this period. This is more than double the 10% increase in EU countries.

Given this demographic change, we found that Ireland recorded no increase in excess deaths over a three-year period.

Excess mortality refers to the number of deaths from any cause over a given period of time that exceeds the number of deaths that would normally be expected. It is considered one of the best ways to measure the impact of things like pandemics because it captures deaths from all causes.

However, this does not mean that there was no change in mortality rates at various points in 2020 and 2022. In Ireland, the adjusted mortality rate appears to have risen in 2020, fallen in 2021 and rose again in 2022.

If online reactions are a barometer of public opinion, there appears to be considerable skepticism about the government’s claims that Ireland has fared well in the pandemic compared to other countries.

As the Hiqa study pointed out, the worst period of the pandemic saw a spike in deaths. In other parts of Europe, except Ireland, the summer heatwave of 2022 caused a sharp increase in deaths.

Health Minister Stephen Donnelly and his officials were understandably quick to welcome the OECD’s findings, saying that thanks to the public health measures taken during the pandemic, particularly the widely supported COVID-19 vaccine programme, I thought there was.

If online reactions are a barometer of public opinion, there appears to be considerable skepticism about the government’s claims that Ireland has fared better during the pandemic than other countries.

The only way to properly answer questions about Ireland’s performance over the past few years may be to launch a long-promised review of actions taken during the pandemic.

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