There is much uncertainty about how climate change will affect Ireland’s flora and fauna, but experts say the threat to the status quo is “very real”.
Ecologist John Ballimo, manager of the Irish Sustainable Development Solutions Network, says that for as long as we really know there was a complex web of processes that created order and maintained natural ecosystems. Stated.
“That being said, there are trends that researchers have identified. More than 30 years ago, when I was an undergraduate, I learned that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was increasing. Global warming. Evidence was that most of the world’s glaciers were receding or melting, and the ranges of many species were beginning to shift poleward.
“And more than 20 years ago, a study from the University of Oxford described the unpredictable nature of climate change in relation to species and natural habitats in the UK and Ireland,” he said.
So, he asks, what does this mean for us in Ireland?
Dr. Balimo said that to get a complete perspective, we need to go back in time and think in terms of millions or even billions of years ago.
“By studying isotopes in ice cores, we also know that we are currently experiencing extremely rapid changes in carbon dioxide and temperature compared to the geological record since the Industrial Revolution some 150 years ago. I know that.
“And when changes occur so rapidly in many species, within just a few generations, natural evolutionary processes such as adaptation and natural selection are essentially short-circuited,” he said.
Natural genetic variation is also a means of resilience for certain species, but much of Ireland’s natural diversity has been lost due to land use practices and overfishing.
“To this day, species continue to migrate away from warm oceans and land, and toward the polar regions. Such large-scale migrations result in communities of different species encountering each other for the first time, with unpredictable consequences. It will be impossible. Some winners and some losers.
“We can also learn a lot from studying invasive species. In my native Florida, people have released pet Burmese pythons and Indo-Pacific lionfish into the wild, where they thrive.
“Pythons have destroyed Everglades ecosystems, severely impacting bird and small mammal populations, and lionfish have wiped out juvenile species on coral reefs,” he said.
He said something similar is happening with rhododendrons in Ireland, particularly in Killarney National Park, where rhododendrons compete with many native species and we provide little habitat value to native animals. , he said.
Invasive species generally have no predators or competitors to maintain their population size. As a result, they can quickly become the dominant species, often providing no benefit to existing ecological communities.
However, some of these non-native species may not become established, and the outcome of such invasive species may be difficult to predict in advance.
“I think it’s fair to say that we’re probably moving towards an era of increasing instability in many ways. I personally have foresaw climate instability, and I think it’s fair to say that I didn’t like words like global warming and climate change.
It is very sad that events like the flooding in Midleton last year may start to happen more frequently and we need to be prepared for this, especially if we live in low-lying areas,” Dr Balimo said. .
Dr Balimo asks the question, given this background information, what exactly can we expect in Ireland?
“There is anecdotal information that changes are occurring in Atlantic puffins nesting on the Skellig Islands, but we have not yet seen any empirical data. may be caused by a change in the feeding ability to eat.
“This is also a reminder that specialized foragers, such as puffins, may be more susceptible to environmental influences than generalist foragers, such as omnivores.” He said.
The British Ornithological Trust predicts that 90% of puffins will be lost in Ireland and the UK by 2050.
“What we don’t know is whether they will find new feeding and breeding grounds, or whether they will eventually die out as a species, at least locally or regionally. We expect the same trend for other seabirds. But why should you care?
“Seabirds are often used by scientists as indicator species for the health of marine ecosystems, but that’s because we don’t have the ability to monitor the life cycles and species interactions of all organisms in the ocean. .
“Again, I think it’s safe to say that change is promising, but the outcome is still unknown and it’s like an experiment in our own life support system,” he said. .
Dr Balimo said what most people don’t realize is that forests move in response to climate change, but on a much slower time scale. These are longer time scales compared to what we are currently experiencing. Movement occurs when seeds are blown away from the parent tree by wind or animals.
Under current climate conditions, seeds are more likely to germinate and survive if they are dispersed toward the cooler poles. But change is happening much faster as our native animals adapt.
“Unfortunately, preserving these forests for future generations may require human intervention, which may perhaps be more expensive than phasing out fossil fuels,” he said. added.
Regarding Ireland’s fisheries, Dr Ballimo said more tropical and subtropical fish are expected to move into our waters, with traditional catches such as cod, hake and mackerel potentially moving north. He said some of them could move into deep waters.
“But again, we have to wonder how interactions between species shape newly emerging ecological communities, or how nutrient-rich waters that feed the plankton that serve as the base of food webs move into coastal regions. I don’t know if we can still expect it to spring up.
“Also unknown is what will be the fate of species like Atlantic salmon that are faithful to their natal streams. Evidence suggests that spawning sites can be detected by smell,” he says. I did.
Dr. Balimo said that all these issues bring us to the point of what we can do as individuals or as members of groups and what are our own values regarding these issues. .
“This will hold our elected officials fully accountable to deliver on their commitments in the Paris Agreement, the 2030 Agenda, including the Sustainable Development Goals, or any other agreement that comes out of the police force. Is it important enough?
“We are at a critical moment when we have to turn words into action, and we can no longer defer the problem to the next generation,” he said.
“For example, with the European Parliament elections coming up, a good question for candidates might be: what will happen to the EU’s subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, which amount to €300 million a year?
And why can’t those funds be used to subsidize a just transition to renewable energy and ecosystem restoration?”