Alexander Stubbe has been elected as the new president of Finland. Tuomas Forsberg writes about Stubb’s career and what his victory means for the country’s future.
On February 11, Alexander Stubbe was elected as the next president of Finland. The most important fact about Stubb for readers of this blog is that he wrote a thesis on flexible integration under the guidance of Professor William Wallace and received his PhD from his School of Economics in London in 1999. . Before that, he earned his bachelor’s degree at Furman University in South Carolina and his master’s degree at European University in Bruges.
He worked as an EU expert in the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the European Commission, but began his political career in 2004 when he was elected to the European Parliament as a candidate for the liberal-conservative National Union Party. . He was appointed Finland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2008 and served in the cabinet for most of his decade, including a brief stint as Prime Minister. In 2017, he retired from Finnish politics, first working at the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, and then becoming professor and director of the Department of Transnational Governance at the European University Institute in Florence.
Although he had made it clear that he had no intention of returning to Finnish politics, his attitude changed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. His country, more specifically, called Prime Minister Peteri Olupo, the chairman of the National Coalition Party, to ask if he was willing to stand as a candidate in this year’s presidential election. In the first round, Stubb was supported by 27.2% of voters, and in the second round he narrowly defeated Green Party candidate Pekka Haavisto, also a former foreign minister, and received 51.6% of the vote.
unity of the nation
Some might think this close margin leaves the country politically divided. The right mainly supported Mr. Stubbe, and the left supported Harvist. In domestic politics, the polarization of Finnish society between the government and the opposition certainly accelerated over the winter, with large-scale strikes and demonstrations occurring.
However, both the election results and the presidential campaign demonstrated broad national unity on foreign policy. All nine candidates, ranging from the True Finns to the Left Alliance, supported Finland’s membership in NATO and its strong commitment to supporting Ukraine in its defense struggle against Russia.
In particular, it’s hard to see much difference in the stances of Stubb and Haavisto. Both are urbane (born and raised only two miles apart in the western suburbs of Helsinki), cosmopolitan (married to foreign spouses), and liberal in their social values. Although their political backgrounds were different, both were close to the political center and took a safe approach.
In international affairs, Mr. Stubbe’s past focus has concerned the EU and Western countries, while Mr. Haavist has turned more frequently to the United Nations and the Global South. However, while Mr Haavisto led Finland’s entry into NATO as Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Stubb readily recognized the importance of the Global South and environmental issues in Finland’s foreign policy.
The election debate and campaign was exemplary, with a calm focus on issues, values and facts. The election was held in a good atmosphere and both candidates showed high respect for each other. Mr. Stubbe had a slightly more hawkish view than Mr. Haavist about Finland’s role in NATO and relations with Russia, but on the other hand, Mr. Haavist accused Mr. Stubbe of being too soft on China. there’s a possibility that.
The dirty negative campaign did not receive any publicity and was limited to social media platforms. In a classy gesture to show his willingness to reach out to the entire nation, Mr. Stubbe visited Mr. Haavisto’s election party immediately after the election results were announced. Rather, the main sign of social division was the low turnout in the second round. Many True Finn supporters felt that both candidates were too liberal and stayed home without voting for either.
Mr. Stubb’s appointment as president
As Finland’s president, Stubb will continue Finland’s diplomatic path that emerged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and led to its application to NATO in spring 2022 and formal membership a year later. Mr. Stubb reflects a strong elite and public consensus on foreign and security policy centered on skepticism toward Russia, support for Ukraine, and an aggressive NATO policy.
Absent a fundamental shift in public opinion on foreign policy, it is highly unlikely that someone like Stubb, who has always been a strong supporter of deeper Western integration, would be elected president. But now he is seen as a figure firmly established in the mainstream. Stubb has supported NATO membership since the 1990s, and debated the issue with former President Sauli Niinisto after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Even if Mr. Stubb wanted to advance his own agenda as a foreign policy leader, the constitution requires him to cooperate with the government. From the beginning, he will focus on developing a new policy for Finland in NATO and supporting the United Nations in supporting Ukraine. This will require close cooperation with the government and ministries, but the Foreign Minister, Defense Minister and Prime Minister are all close allies of the National Coalition Party, so it should go smoothly at first.
Mr. Stubb will also play a key role in shaping bilateral relations between Finland and the United States during a turbulent period. As a native Swedish speaker, he can symbolize and promote close Nordic cooperation. In addition, other pressing global issues will preoccupy the president, including the general breakdown of the liberal rules-based world order and tensions and serious conflicts in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Africa. right. Mr. Stubb emphasized several times that Western countries could only appeal to the Global South if they were able to reduce their own hypocrisy in international affairs.
Russia, Europe, NATO
An important task for Stubb’s predecessor was to manage and look after bilateral relations with Russia. This topic is currently completely frozen. In Mr. Stubb’s view, Russia must stop the war in Ukraine before normalization of relations with Russia can begin.
European integration has been a focus of Stubbe’s career, but this issue is the prerogative of the prime minister, not the president. But as a sophisticated international opinion-former, Mr Stubb can also contribute to the evolution of European politics. Through bilateral relations and a large and close network, his persuasive skills could help promote European unity and resolve, including with the UK. When it comes to European security and defense, the separation of powers between EU matters and other foreign policy issues will not work without effective coordination and functional cooperation.
As president, Mr. Stubb will be judged on his ability to protect national security interests and advance foreign policy priorities that seem fairly obvious in the current international climate. But as the current system evolves further and new strategic choices are required by transatlantic relations, NATO, the war in Ukraine, changes in the Russian regime, or more unforeseen events, the president becomes You will be put to the test.
Note: This article gives the views of the author and does not represent the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics.Featured image credit: European Union